The Kansas City Chiefs have been the consensus pre-season favourite to win the Super Bowl three years in a row.

After back-to-back losses to the Baltimore Ravens and the Los Angeles Chargers, they are still the favourite to win it all, but their odds to raise the Lombardi Trophy have lengthened to +600.

That got the contrarian in me thinking. Is now the ideal time to buy low on the Chiefs?

Kansas City went 31-6 straight up from Week 1 of the 2019 season through last year’s AFC Championship Game win over the Buffalo Bills.

But the same issues have continued to creep up for the Chiefs as they’ve lost three of their last four dating back to their Super Bowl loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

After looking seemingly invincible for nearly two full seasons, Kansas City suddenly seems vulnerable following a 1-2 start.

However, if you think the Chiefs will ultimately be just fine following a slow start, you might not get a better number for them to win the Super Bowl than +600.

In terms of their immediate outlook, this could shape up to be a solid buy-low spot for Kansas City looking ahead to Week 4.   

Here is the Morning Coffee for Monday, Sept. 27, 2021.

Is now the time to buy low on the Chiefs?

Patrick Mahomes went 1-for-14 for six yards and two interceptions when facing pressure in Sunday’s 30-24 loss to the Los Angeles Chargers.

The Chiefs racked up 437 total yards of offence, but lost the turnover battle 4-0, including an interception with 1:55 left in the fourth quarter that set up the Chargers’ game-winning drive.

Mahomes has now been pressured 44 times to start the season, the most through the first three games of a season in his career.

The same protection issues that plagued Kansas City in last year’s Super Bowl have shown up again in back-to-back losses.

Can the Chiefs figure out a way to protect Mahomes and give him the time he needs to operate as the most talented quarterback in the NFL?

Kansas City is 0-3 against the spread this season, and 2-12 ATS in its last 13 games dating back to last season, including the playoffs.

The Chiefs had covered in four straight games following a straight up loss before Sunday.

For as bad as things looked for Kansas City at times in the loss to the Chargers, Justin Herbert was excellent, and Kansas City was a couple of bad bounces away from a win for the second week in a row.

Eliminate the turnovers and the Chiefs are 3-0 right now.

Kansas City is a six-point favourite for its Week 4 matchup with the Philadelphia Eagles, who visit the Dallas Cowboys on Monday Night Football tonight.

If the Eagles struggle, the number for next week’s game could easily get to seven by the end of the night.

Is this an ideal buy-low spot to get the Chiefs at a discount price for their Week 4 game?

I can’t imagine Kansas City losing to Philadelphia outright for a third straight outright loss, so at the very least the Chiefs should be a popular teaser option at -6.

If you believe that the Chiefs still have what it takes to win it all, you might not get them at a better number than +600 to win the Super Bowl.

Performance of the week

A popular pre-season pick to win NFL regular season MVP, there was a lot of talk about Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen’s poor play through the first two weeks of the season.

He silenced his critics in a 43-21 win over the Washington Football Team on Sunday.

\Allen threw for 358 yards and four touchdowns in the win, rushing for nine yards and another score.

That includes 200 passing yards and two touchdowns on throws that travelled more than 10 yards downfield. 

It was Allen’s fifth career game with at least 300 passing yards and four touchdowns, breaking a tie with Hall of Fame quarterback Jim Kelly for the most in Bills’ franchise history.


Allen’s odds to win MVP shortened from +1300 to +800.

He’s now the co-favourite to win that award in a wide open field, with Mahomes, Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Kyler Murray and Matthew Stafford all listed at the same price.

Biggest upset

NFL underdogs had a small edge again on Sunday, going 9-5 against the spread.

The Chargers beat the Chiefs as a +270 money line underdog for the biggest upset of Week 3.

The Cincinnati Bengals, New Orleans Saints, Atlanta Falcons, Minnesota Vikings and Green Bay Packers all won outright as underdogs.

NFL underdogs are now 30-17 ATS this season heading into Monday Night Football.

Monday Night Football primer

The Eagles opened as a four-point favourite for tonight’s matchup with the Cowboys, but that number has been bet down to three at most spots.

Dallas is 0-5 against the spread as a home favourite since the start of last season, and sharp bettors pounced on Philadelphia getting more than a field goal as a road underdog.

The Eagles have the second-worst cover percentage in the month of September dating back to the start of the 2018 season at 3-10 ATS, but they looked good in a 32-6 win over the Atlanta Falcons and nearly covered in a 17-11 loss to the San Francisco 49ers in Week 2.


Through the first three weeks of the season, NFL road underdogs getting six points or less are a combined 14-2 ATS.

I tweeted out a recommendation with the Eagles and Packers as a two-team, seven-point teaser before Sunday Night Football.

After the Packers won outright, I feel pretty good about Philadelphia to cover the 10.5.

One additional note – prime-time overs are 7-1 this season.

The Eagles and Cowboys are a combined 3-1 to the under, so it makes sense that the total opened at 51.5 and hasn’t moved.

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