Welcome to Week 2 of the NFL season.

If Week 1 is any indication, we are in for a ride.

It was an absolutely wild opening week that wrapped up last night with Russell Wilson getting cooked by an unprecedented number of mistakes inside the stadium in which he became a Hall of Fame quarterback. 

The Seattle Seahawks, which went 0-5 in prime time and 0-5 in games decided by three or fewer points last season, battled for a 17-16 upset win in Wilson’s Broncos’ debut on Monday Night Football.

It was a rough night for most bettors at FanDuel as the overwhelming majority of stakes were on Denver to win and cover as a 6.5-point favourite.

NFL favourites went 10-5-1 straight up and 8-8 against the spread, but it doesn’t feel like those numbers actually do justice to what we saw from a betting perspective in Week 1.

Here’s the TSN EDGE Morning Coffee for Tuesday September 13th, 2022.

Seahawks Upset Caps Brutal Week 1 For Notable Favourites

After all of the talk about Wilson’s return to Seattle, it was fascinating to watch Geno Smith turn back the clock and lead his team to victory. 

Smith went 23-of-28 for 195 yards and two touchdowns.

Believe it or not, Smith is now 3-0 in season openers in his career.

Smith started the game 13-of-13 before his first incompletion, and finished 5-of-6 for 82 yards and a touchdown when pressured.

Meanwhile, Wilson cruised to over 22.5 completions and over 252.5 passing yards by going 29-of-42 for 340 yards and a score.

However, the Denver offence went 0-for-4 in the red zone, marking the first time ever that a Wilson-led offence went 0-for-4 or worse in the red zone.

While there were technically only five upset winners, that number alone doesn’t tell the whole story of how wild Week 1 in the NFL actually was.

Let me explain.

There were nine favourites of 5.5 points or more at FanDuel in Week 1.

Those nine teams went a combined 4-4-1 straight up and 2-7 against the spread.

 

Meanwhile, there were six favourites of 3.5 points or less in Week 1.

Those six teams went a combined 5-1 straight up and against the spread, with the only exception being the Carolina Panthers losing to the Cleveland Browns as a 1.5-point favourite, even though Cleveland was initially the favourite to win that game.

As for the total, the unders went a combined 11-5, including a perfect 3-0 in prime-time games.

Looking ahead to Week 2, there are eight favourites of 5.5 points or more.

 

Will we see similar betting splits for those notable favourites in Week 2?

Stay tuned.

NFL Week 2 Early Leans

While I sprinkled on the Seahawks to cover the +6.5 on Monday night, I never felt confident enough in the pick to give it out as an official recommendation.

Instead, I gave out the five plays I felt most confident in.

Two of them hit.

Another two would have hit if Albert Okwuegbunam wasn’t stopped at the goal line on a tackle that cost me prop bets on Okwuegbunam anytime touchdown at +250 and Wilson over 1.5 touchdown passes. 

While that was a tough beat to handle, it was a decent Week 1 overall as I went 17-10 with the picks that I gave out in this column and on Twitter.

In case you missed it, I’ve already tweeted out a handful of plays I love for Week 2 to consider.

My favourite play was the Cincinnati Bengals -6.5 against the Dallas Cowboys. 

It didn’t take long for that number to cross the key number 7 this morning, as Cincinnati is now -7.5 at FanDuel this morning. 

I also bet the New Orleans Saints +3 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, which has moved to Saints +2.5.

The other play I tweeted out is still available at FanDuel this morning: Green Bay Packers -9.5 against the Chicago Bears.

I’ll have a write up for another Week 2 play later this morning, so make sure you give me a follow @DomPadulaEDGE on Twitter.

After going 6-0 in the pre-season and 17-10 in Week 1, I’m hoping that with some better luck including on the injury front in particular, I can deliver better results in Week 2.