Columnist image

| Archive

The Buffalo Bills drafted Josh Allen seventh overall in the 2018 NFL Draft.

They haven’t missed the playoffs since his rookie season.

Exactly one month ago, that streak appeared to be in serious jeopardy.

Coming off a 37-34 overtime loss to the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 12, the Bills entered their bye week with a 6-6 record and sitting on the outside of the AFC playoff picture looking in.

Buffalo could be found as high as +360 to make the playoffs at FanDuel.

The Bills were +1400 to win the AFC East.

They haven’t lost a game since.

After stringing together four wins in a row to improve to 10-6, Buffalo is in position to clinch the AFC East crown and extend its run of playoff appearances with a win over the rival Miami Dolphins in Week 18.

 

Will the Bills stay hot with another victory in Miami?

Or will the Dolphins respond with the potential to clinch a division title and eliminate their AFC East rival?

The stage is set for an epic regular season finale on Sunday Night Football.

It’s also time to lock in the first NFL FanDuel Best Bet for 2024.

This is the Morning Coffee for Friday January 5th, 2024.

A FanDuel Best Bet For Week 18 In The NFL

For the first time since 1997, the two teams fighting for the AFC East title will meet in a winner-take-all scenario in the final week of the regular season.

 

Buffalo has won the AFC East in each of the previous three seasons.

After an impressive turnaround, the Bills are the favourite to win their division once again heading into Week 18.

Buffalo opened -1.5 for Sunday’s contest and climbed as high as -3 before ticking down to -2.5 at FanDuel.

 

The winner of Sunday’s game clinches the AFC East title.

If the Dolphins lose, they would drop to a Wild Card spot.

If the Bills lose, they could miss the playoffs altogether.

If the Pittsburgh Steelers or Jacksonville Jaguars lose this weekend, then Buffalo will clinch a playoff spot before this game kicks off.

Still, I believe the Bills deserve the edge in Sunday night’s contest regardless of the other results.

 

Following a disappointing mid-season slump that included five one-score losses, Allen and company have locked in four consecutive victories, including impressive wins over the Kansas City Chiefs and Dallas Cowboys.

All six Buffalo losses this season have been by six points or fewer, including a pair of overtime losses to the New York Jets and Eagles on the road.

The Bills have been in every single game this season.

They’ve also dominated the head-to-head series versus the Dolphins, winning three of their past four meetings.

Allen is 5-1 straight up in his career versus Tua Tagovailoa.

 

In six head-to-head meetings, Allen has completed 66.7 per cent of his pass attempts for an average of 318.3 yards per game with 19 touchdowns passes and two interceptions for a 109.5 passer rating.

When these teams met in Buffalo in Week 4, Allen produced a perfect passer rating with 320 yards and five touchdown passes in a 48-20 win.

Allen is 10-2 straight up in his career versus Miami.

 

In addition to the confidence that should come with Allen’s prior success against this opponent, the Bills should benefit from some key injuries the Dolphins are dealing with on both sides of the football.

Miami lost its best pass rusher Bradley Chubb to a torn ACL in Week 17.

The Dolphins had already lost Jaelan Phillips to a torn Achilles in Week 12.

Plus, cornerback Xavien Howard exited last week’s game on a cart with a foot injury, while fellow cornerback Jalen Ramsey and safety Jevon Holland are also listed on the injury report despite practicing this week.

 

On the offensive side of the football, Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle did not practice this week due to injuries.

Running back Raheem Mostert also missed practice, while De’Von Achane was limited.

Miami can clinch an AFC East title with a win.

However, regardless of the result, the Dolphins have to play a postseason game next weekend.

If their best players are less than 100 per cent, does it make sense to expose them to aggravating those injuries and further compromise them for a playoff game?

 

Tagovailoa is headed to the Pro Bowl after putting up some remarkable numbers this season, but his most explosive weapons will either be limited or out due to injuries in Week 18, and that will make a tough match-up against a solid Buffalo defence that much more difficult.

Since Week 10, the Bills defence ranks fourth in EPA per play.

Tagovailoa has thrown five touchdown passes in six career games versus Buffalo.

Perhaps he is in line for the best performance of his career versus this particular opponent on Sunday, but considering his lack of success against the Bills, the injuries that Miami is dealing with on both sides of the football, and the way he struggled in last week’s loss to the Baltimore Ravens, I’m not convinced that happens.

 

The Bills have won 13 straight games in the months of December and January – the longest active streak in the NFL.

Since 2020, Buffalo has averaged a league-best 30.4 points per game while allowing the second-fewest points per game (17.9) in the final two months of the regular season.

 

The Bills are playing their best football of the season heading into Week 18.

Over the past four weeks, they’ve gone from a long shot to the favourite to win their division.

I believe Buffalo will beat Miami on Sunday Night Football to win the AFC East.

 

I’ll take the Bills on the moneyline as my FanDuel Best Bet for Week 18 in the NFL.