The regular season MVP award traditionally goes to one of the league’s best players, but the Finals MVP doesn’t always go to the alpha dog of the winning team.

Looking back at past NBA champions from the 2000s, there are a few Finals MVPs that catch your eye:

2015 – Andre Iguodala
2014 – Kawhi Leonard
2008 – Paul Pierce
2007 – Tony Parker
2004 – Chauncey Billups

Outside of Max Kellerman, everyone knows Iguodala was sentimentally given the Finals MVP alongside Steph Curry and company. Leonard was the most impactful player in San Antonio’s series but, at age 22 at the time, was by no means the alpha dog. You could debate which of Boston’s big three was the most important player and same for Detroit during their championship run.

With all that being said, my point is to spotlight the opportunity for value if you’re looking at futures for the rest of the playoffs.

As it stands here are the odds to win the Larry O’Brien Trophy:

Milwaukee Bucks +140
Phoenix Suns +145
LA Clippers +550
Atlanta Hawks +700


Here are the odds currently available for NBA Finals MVPs:

Giannis Antetokounmpo +165
Devin Booker +300
Chris Paul +500
Trae Young +700
Paul George +750
Deandre Ayton +3000
Khris Middleton +3000
Jrue Holiday +6000

 

We all know Milwaukee lives and dies by Antetokounmpo, so it’s not surprising that oddsmakers have both their championship and MVP prices nearly the same. The same story for Atlanta; if they go on to win it all, don’t expect anyone besides Young to lift the Bill Russell Trophy.

I’m not here to knock on anyone taking Outright Winners with four teams remaining but if you’re a value-hunter like me, here are some spicier storylines to consider:

Chris Paul caps off his HOF career in style

The Phoenix Suns are the most fascinating turnaround story in the NBA right now. Two years ago, they finished 19-63, tied for the second-worst record in the league. Last year, they went 8-0 in the bubble just missing the playoffs, then this season they defied all odds and finished second overall just behind Utah with a 51-21 record.

With such a historic turnaround, Monty Williams was justifiably pegged as the betting favourite for Coach of the Year honours but ultimately lost to New York’s Tom Thibodeau. After the fact, many voters revealed that their primary reason for placing Williams second was Chris ‘point gawd’ Paul.

CP3 is the prototypical culture leader of the NBA. Every time he’s been traded, his new team improved. His track record speaks for itself and now he’s six wins away from shattering the one narrative dragging him down: he’s not a winner.

No disrespect intended towards Booker, but Paul is the undeniable leader of this team. Just like Billups in 2004, Paul is unlikely to lead the Suns in scoring if they win it all, but his intangible impact should influence the voting.

The Finals MVP tends to have a bit of storytelling built into the selection and considering the fact you get almost twice the payout choosing Paul over Booker, CP3 for Finals MVP at +500 is my best value play.

Khris Middleton saves the day for Milwaukee                                                                                     

Most observers can envision the Bucks winning it all. They’re the only remaining team with a regular season MVP, they’ve avoided the injury bug, only losing Donte DiVincenzo so far, and their path has gone from most difficult (prior to the playoffs) to the easiest.

Don’t mistake this blurb as me saying Middleton is more valuable than Antetokounmpo. But considering their Finals MVP odds (+3000 versus +165), I think there’s a reasonable argument to make for Middleton.

Doing the math, those odds suggest it would take 18 simulations of Milwaukee winning the chip before Middleton is crowned MVP ahead of Antetokounmpo. But if you think about how chaotic these playoffs have been, is this not the year to bet on an anomalous outcome?

The Clippers defied the odds and beat Utah without Leonard. Brooklyn almost stole a series without Kyrie Irving or James Harden healthy. Is there a 1-in-18 possibility that Antetokounmpo gets injured, misses games due to COVID protocols or completely folds under the bright lights? I’d say so.

In addition to something adverse happening to Giannis, there are other scenarios where Middleton could simply outshine him.

With Antetokounmpo’s free-throw struggles, Middleton is their de facto closer in crunch time. What if multiple games come down to the wire and Middleton is responsible for hitting the game-winning shots?

What if the Suns or Clippers elect to double-team Antetokounmpo the entire series and force Middleton to step up as their alpha?

I’m not here to guarantee a Milwaukee championship or tell you Middleton is their guy. All I’m saying is that I think there’s more than a five-per-cent chance he could emerge under the spotlight as the hero for a franchise desperate to break a 50-year championship drought.