In the thick of the Conference Finals two weeks ago, I mentioned Chris Paul for Finals MVP (+500) as a strong value play for betting futures. 

At that time, the Suns were up 2-1 and the Bucks were fighting back from an opening-game loss to Atlanta. 

Since then, Giannis Antetokounmpo went down and back up in a Wolverine-like recovery and Phoenix took care of business finishing off a Kawhi-less L.A. Clippers roster. 

Heading into this series, I thought all the momentum was on Phoenix's side. Two games in, an inaugural championship banner for the Suns seems inevitable. 

At -500, betting Phoenix to win the series doesn't leave you with much value. You're better off taking the Suns game by game or trying to nail the series correct score. 

I'm not saying it's a done deal for Phoenix but considering only four teams in NBA history have overcome an 0-2 deficit in the Finals, it's a big ask for Milwaukee. 

Here are three keys for the Bucks to fight their way back into the series on their home floor:

 

Where’s Conference Finals Jrue?
 

After two dominating performances to close out Atlanta, Jrue Holiday looked out of sync with Antetokounmpo back in the lineup for Game 1. He only took 14 shots, missing all four three-pointers and took a lot of heat from the media for his play.

In Game 2, there was clearly a mandate from the coaching staff to have Holiday initiate more of the offence, taking 17 drives versus 11 in Game 1. Unfortunately, he shot 4-for-12 (33.3 per cent) in those circumstances, drew zero fouls, and only generated one assist from his actions.

During the Conference Finals, he had 94 drives, shot 22-for-41 (53.7 per cent), and had a 17-to-5 assist to turnover ratio.

In his lone game against Phoenix during the regular season, he had a 25-4-8 slash line, shooting 52.6 per cent from the field.

So what gives?

I’m not qualified to scheme up the Xs and Os. What I do know is that Milwaukee has a zero percent chance of winning the title if Holiday can’t contribute on both ends.

After shooting 50-39-79 during the regular season, he’s averaging 41-29-67 in the postseason.

Maybe he’s just not ready for the big stage. Maybe defences are just playing him tougher. Whatever it is, he’ll need to figure it out going up against two of the most clutch backcourt players in the NBA right now.

 

Will coach Bud mix up his defensive schemes?
 

What play type does Paul excel in? Pick and roll. How has Deandre Ayton gotten the bulk of his scoring? Pick and roll. What is Phoenix’s offence essentially built on? Pick and roll.

Time and time again, whether it was Devin Booker or CP3 initiating the offence, Phoenix was able to generate good shots after finding the pick and roll matchup they desired.

Of all the roll men in the playoffs, Ayton has been by and far the most productive, scoring 102 points over 18 games (the next closest was Nikola Jokic, 61).

Every observer knows what shot CP3 is hunting on offence, is it time to mix up some looks?

There are a bunch of ways to defend the pick and roll but it’ll be interesting to see how flexible coach Mike Budenholzer will be with his schemes – is he willing to mix in some occasional zone looks or maybe some blitzes?

Albert Einstein said it best, “insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results.”

 

Continue attacking the paint
 

When the stakes are this high, the added pressure makes shot-making all the more difficult. Milwaukee’s biggest success in Game 2 was winning the points in the paint battle, 54-28.

Unsurprisingly, the further the Bucks got from the rim, the worse their shooting was. Here is their shooting efficiency by range in Game 2:

In the Paint: 27-for-48 (56.3 per cent)

Mid-range: 6-for-14 (42.9 per cent)

Three-pointers: 9-for-31 (29 per cent)

Fifty per cent of Milwaukee’s points were scored in the paint, Phoenix only scored 23.7 per cent.

The Suns nailed one clutch shot after another, shooting 20-for-40 from three-point range. During the playoffs, no qualified player on Phoenix has shot worse than 35 per cent from three (which is outrageous) and they’ve shot 38.3 per cent as a team through 18 games.

While I’m not suggesting the Bucks leave Phoenix’s shooters wide open, they have to bank on some regression. In Game 2, if the Suns shot at the same efficiency as their playoff average, they would’ve gone 15-for-40.

If you take away those five three pointers, this would be an entirely different series.