Round 3 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers-New Orleans Saints rivalry kicks off on Sunday, with the winner booking their ticket to the NFC Championship game.

The Saints have won the first two matchups against their NFC South rival with relative ease, but there’s reason to believe the third time will be the charm for the Buccaneers.

New Orleans opened as a 3.5-point favourite following its wild card win over the Chicago Bears last Sunday, but that number has since been bet down half a point in Tampa Bay’s favour.

The Buccaneers have been one of the most dominant teams in the conference over the last five weeks, and few quarterbacks are playing as well as Tom Brady entering the best weekend in football.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints
Line: Saints -3
Total: 53

Bucs Firing on all Cylinders

Tampa Bay leads the NFL in expected points per play over the second half of the season and has racked up at least 31 points in five straight games. Last weekend, they hung 31 points and 507 yards of offence on Washington, the NFL’s third-highest-rated defence by DVOA.

Now, they face a Saints defence that ranks second by DVOA and one that had their way with Tom Brady in Week 9. That night, Brady was held to 209 passing yards and no touchdowns in a lopsided 38-3 loss. TB-12 threw three picks, absorbed three sacks, and was pressured on 50 per cent of his drop backs.

A big reason for New Orleans’ dominance in the trenches was the absence of Ali Marpet. Brady’s trusty left guard hasn’t allowed a sack in 1,075 straight pass attempts, and was instrumental in helping to contain Washington’s ferocious front in the Wild Card Weekend round. The Football Team managed just an 18 per cent pressure rate, which gave Brady enough time in a clean pocket to pick them apart.

The Bucs’ O-line will need a similar performance on Sunday and, with Marpet back in the lineup, they’re certainly capable of accommodating. Since their embarrassing loss to the Saints, Brady has been sacked more than once in a game just twice, and has thrown multiple TD passes in every outing.

TB-12 continues to turn back the clock. Since Week 14, he ranks first among all quarterbacks in passing grade, yards per attempt, touchdown passes and passing yards.

Will the Saints Air it Out?

On the other side of the ball, no defence is better against the run than Tampa Bay. The Bucs rank first in rush defence DVOA and first in adjusted line yards. They’ve done an excellent job at containing Alvin Kamara through two games, holding him to 2.7 yards per carry and 4.28 yards per target.

Their pass defence has also clamped down on Michael Thomas, limiting him to 8.5 yards per catch, and seems determined to make Drew Brees beat them.

For his part, 42-year-old Brees has been hesitant to throw the ball downfield this season, averaging just 6.7 yards per attempt. That number is even smaller against Tampa Bay, as he’s averaged 4.5 and 5.0 yards per attempt in their two meetings.

That dink and dunk approach may have worked in the past but it’s not a recipe to beat championship-calibre teams in the playoffs. Last week versus the Bears, the Saints put up just 21 points and averaged 5.1 yards per play. That kind of effort isn’t going to beat the Bucs this week.

Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3