When entering an unfamiliar environment, our brains need to acclimate. Navigating the NHL off-season requires a similar adjustment. Players move teams. Coaches are hired and ousted. Shoot, this season, an entirely new franchise will make its NHL debut.

From the standpoint of those closely monitoring the betting odds, changes should be embraced. Uncertainty breeds opportunity, especially when it comes to NHL futures wagers. Without further ado, here are three Stanley Cup futures bets that intrigue me as the dust begins to settle.

Best Bet: New York Islanders +2000

In the NHL, the path to glory can be paved with durability. The Islanders are uniquely well positioned to capture the Cup, in part because of the deterioration of their foes.

Observe: The Lightning and Avalanche saw their depth erode due to the expansion draft and free agency. Expecting an encore from Montreal is a tall task, especially with the uncertain health of key veterans. Toronto, Boston and Carolina have suspect goaltending that deflects attention from their other glaring flaws. Vegas is a year older and its core may be past its prime.

The Islanders played the Stanley Cup champion Lightning in consecutive seasons and barely lost. While losing in six games in 2020 and seven in 2021, New York demonstrated marked improvement in the analytics. In 2020, New York got shellacked by Tampa Bay in expected goals and high-danger chances with the Lightning better in those categories at 5-on-5 in every game. In 2021, the Lightning had the better expected goals in two of the seven games and more high-danger chances in four of the seven. And this occurred with the Islanders missing Anders Lee, one of their best forwards.

Losing Nick Leddy to Detroit and Jordan Eberle to Seattle hurts, but the Islanders can remedy those absences through internal growth. Leddy’s best asset was his mobility, but Barry Trotz was designing pick plays to create room for Noah Dobson during the Tampa Bay series, a clear indication that he recognizes this young defenceman’s skating is a strength. As for Eberle, his replacement could be another Islanders’ first-round pick from the 2018 draft: Oliver Wahlstrom.

Wahlstrom played 44 games last year, scoring four goals at 5-on-5 in both the first half and second half of his season. In the second half, his expected goals rose from 2.86 to 3.49 and his high-danger chances jumped from 12 to 18. Even if the Islanders end up losing Kyle Palmieri, they can look to explore Wahlstrom’s potential as a top-six forward with a heavy shot by pairing him with a capable distributor like Mathew Barzal.   

By waiting until now to discuss the Islanders’ team defence, I am guilty of burying possibly the most compelling reason for slapping down money on New York at these odds. Adam Pelech and Ryan Pulock, the Islanders’ shutdown pair, showcased they are gangbusters against any player not named Brayden Point, and the goaltending duo of Semyon Varlamov and Ilya Sorokin is elite. The Islanders’ style of play carried them far in the postseason, and their youth can help paper over their departures. I guess the “Yes! Yes! Yes!” chant has become passé, but the Islanders are worthy of the early buy-in.

Darkhorse Bet: Florida Panthers +2200

As various opponents stripped the Buffalo Sabres of players, the Florida Panthers acquired their best: Sam Reinhart. Buried within arguably the NHL’s saddest franchise, Reinhart has quietly been performing stellar work. After finishing second on the team in points to Jack Eichel in 2018-19 and 2019-20, Reinhart in 2020-21 did his best to help Buffalo compete with Eichel injured, finishing first in points and scoring 25 goals. (Victor Olofsson finished second on the team with 13 goals.)

With Reinhart’s arrival in Florida, he joins possibly the deepest forward group in the NHL. He can bond with the team’s best centre, Aleksander Barkov, and best left wing, Jonathan Huberdeau, for a super line. But, more likely, coach Joel Quenneville will distribute his star talent among an assortment of very capable role players (Carter Verhaeghe, Sam Bennett, Frank Vatrano, Patric Hornqvist) and young players who are on the cusp of blossoming (Owen Tippett and Mason Marchment).

Florida’s unique blend of power and speed caused migraines for opponents last season, including Tampa Bay. The Panthers finished with the better expected goals and high-danger chances in the first-round series, even outshooting the Lightning at 5-on-5 in four of their six games.

The Panthers’ propensity for spraying shots was part of their shtick during the regular season, as they led the league in shots per 60 minutes at 5-on-5. But shot quality matters too, and in expected goals and high-danger chances, the Panthers finished fourth and eighth, respectively.

So, they can gin up offence, but what about defence? Before his injury, Aaron Ekblad was propelling himself toward a Norris Trophy nomination, albeit assisted by a career-best shooting percentage. Nevertheless, keeping Brandon Montour in the fold with a three-year contract sends an unmistakable signal: the Florida defencemen are expected to carry the puck and create scoring chances from the back end.

Ekblad can do that, and so can MacKenzie Weegar and Gustav Forsling. The Panthers probably need to add one or two more steady defencemen before a deep playoff run, but the ambition to have the back end quickly move the puck to the forwards and figure in the offence as playmakers is becoming realized.

But what about Bob? The travails of Sergei Bobrovsky lack the goofy slapstick humour of the 1991 Bill Murray movie, but after Carey Price’s renaissance in the 2021 postseason, it might be foolish to completely write off Bobrovsky. Furthermore, Spencer Knight is in the wings as the mega-talent who, while young, exhibited the chutzpah and skill capable of stealing a game or a series.

The most exciting thing about the Panthers is that there is reason to believe the best is yet to come. Their core is in its prime. Centre Sam Bennett has a small sample size with Florida, but in that limited body of work he looked capable of unlocking the power-forward upside that led him to be drafted fourth overall. If Reinhart explodes in the Panthers’ high-octane offence, and Tippett takes a step forward, +2200 could plummet to +800 or lower. The time to strike is now! 

Take-a-flyer Bet: Calgary Flames +4000

Stop laughing! Hear me out. Okay, admittedly, the Flames are habitually disappointing. They consistently fail to meet expectations, and with their revolving door of coaches that likely means the problem lies with the personnel. However, the reason there are expectations in the first place is that there is talent on this team.

Johnny Gaudreau, Sean Monahan, Matthew Tkachuk and Elias Lindholm are four talented forwards who in theory could spearhead a Stanley Cup run. The signing of two-time Stanley Cup champion Blake Coleman brings another scrappy wing to a forward group that can roll three respectable lines. Even with the loss of Mark Giordano, there are capable puck-movers in the defensive group in Noah Hanifin, Chris Tanev and Rasmus Andersson. We have seen Jacob Markstrom look dominant, but in a Vancouver uniform. If Markstrom raises his level of play, maybe Calgary starts winning the 2-1 games.

Darryl Sutter’s hiring in March revealed a coach who could transform a team to fit his personality almost immediately. Suddenly, Calgary was playing Sutter’s lunchpail hockey, with more dump-and-chase and less freewheeling. Meritocracy ruled, with the star players watching their minutes wane.

And it kind of worked. The Flames’ expected goals before Sutter was 51.85. Under Sutter, it shot up to 55.58. Before Sutter, the Flames posted a 51.32 high-danger chances percentage. Under Sutter, that jumped to 56.34. Only the Avalanche and Maple Leafs fared better in both categories during the time after Sutter took over. Winning games with regularity hasn’t followed, but with a full regular season to tinker, maybe Sutter turns the right dials.

The template for the Flames is probably the St. Louis Blues of 2018-19. The Blues rode a hot goaltender, a forward group that hewed to a brand of hockey that made each line appear interchangeable, and a defensive group that brought secondary scoring. The Flames don’t have that same scoring punch on their back end, nor is it clear Markstrom can become what Jordan Binnington was in 2019. But at +4000, there is enough skill to consider riding Calgary to an improbable Stanley Cup run.

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