Apr 1, 2022
Setting The Pick: Exploiting Team Motivation
Of all the results from Thursday’s five-game slate, the Philadelphia 76ers loss to the Detroit Pistons had the most implications from a betting purpose.

Of all the results from Thursday’s five-game slate, the Philadelphia 76ers loss to the Detroit Pistons had the most implications from a betting perspective.
Favoured by 9.5 points at closing, Philly went on to lose by 8.
Hypothetically, you’d assume the Sixers were jockeying for playoff seeding with the top-4 separated by two games. But what’s hidden beyond the numbers is everyone’s fear of the Brooklyn Nets lurking in the play-in.
Kevin Durant and company have the second shortest Eastern Conference odds for a reason.
While the Sixers certainly want home-court advantage in the later rounds, there were rumblings that they might be dogging this game since a loss wouldn’t be the worst alternative.
Joel Embiid most certainly wasn’t happy with the loss, it torpedoed his MVP odds, but the Sixers likely didn’t lose much sleep.
It’s very tough to handicap games without considering team motivations.
When looking at the standings, you can determine which teams are playing like it’s Game 7 versus teams that have no consequences win or lose.
With 10 games on deck tonight, here are the ones worth considering.
Toronto Raptors at Orlando Magic
TOR -11, 217
Toronto’s odds to make the playoffs have steadily shortened to the point where that bet is no longer on the board.
Looking at the standings, the Raptors sit 2.5 games ahead of Cleveland for the final guaranteed playoff berth.
A win tonight all but locks up that sixth seed.
The Cavs have five games in hand, three against Philly, Brooklyn, and Milwaukee.
Toronto only has two games left against playoff-bound teams.
While Orlando’s roster is full of young up-and-comers, staying in the bottom three has to be top of mind for the organization as that’ll guarantee them optimal odds for the first overall pick.
Since lines opened, Toronto has gone up from -9.5 to -11.
If you’re leaning Raps but think it’s too pricey, take an alternative spread and combine that with a player prop from a highly motivated starter like Pascal Siakam making a case for All-NBA, or Scottie Barnes who’s trying to snag the ROTY award from favourite, Evan Mobley.
Best Bet: TOR -6.5 and Siakam o22.5 points (+150)
Minnesota Timberwolves at Denver Nuggets
DEN -2.5, 242.5
I mentioned Embiid’s MVP case taking a major hit due to their upset against Detroit.
A statement win from Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets tonight could be the deciding knockout punch for the league’s top regular-season award.
The T-Wolves currently sit three games behind Denver for the final guaranteed playoff berth. A win tonight, puts them two games behind but with only four games in hand. A loss changes nothing; they’re guaranteed seventh.
For Denver, a win tonight not only cements their playoff status but also helps them leapfrog the Utah Jazz for fifth. The higher they move up, the stronger Jokic’s MVP case becomes.
Whether he comes out campaigning publicly or not, you have to believe the award is on his mind.
Jokic is in the middle of his best scoring stretch of the season, averaging 30.1 points over his last seven games. He dropped 37 points last game and had a 26-19-11 triple-double three nights ago.
Best Bet: DEN -2.5 and Jokic o24.5 points (+144)
Dallas Mavericks at Washington Wizards
WAS +8, 217.5
Another example of a team with high stakes against a team eliminated from contention.
Dallas has earned their way into the third seed out West as Golden State struggles without Stephen Curry.
The two teams are currently tied, but even with the tiebreaker going to the Mavs, every win matters as Dallas likely wants Memphis in Round 2 instead of Phoenix.
Dallas is coming off three straight wins against play-in or playoff caliber teams and shouldn’t be taking their foot off the gas pedal. Outside of a superstar matchup versus Milwaukee this Sunday, the Mavs can go 4-0 to finish the season.
On the Washington side, they’re mathematically out of the play-in and acting as spoilers at this point. While they capitalized on a struggling Warriors squad last Sunday, they’ve been 0-4 against teams above .500 in March.
Just like the Toronto-Orlando line, eight points might be a tad expensive but going with an alternate line combined with a clutch Luka performance is my strategy.
Best Bet: DAL -5.5, Doncic 4+ threes (+247