How many times have you rostered a player in fantasy only to see their absence extend well past the initial timetable?

This season more than ever, you’ll need to make quicker reactions to NBA injury news and have more conviction cutting ties with players who’ll be out for an extended period of time.

Below, I draw attention to three categories of injuries and how to manage them as fantasy managers.

COVID-19 EXPECTATIONS

More than 30 players have missed time this past month due to health and safety protocols. Recovery time has varied but the list below gives you a range of recovery expectations:

  • PF, C: Bam Adebayo, MIA – Out January 11th – January 15th, two games missed, contact-tracing.
  • SF, PF: Kevin Durant, BKN – Out January 4th – January 8th, three games missed, contact-tracing.
  • SG, SF: Jimmy Butler, MIA – Out January 12th – January 28th, 10 games missed, positive COVID test.
  • C: Karl-Anthony Towns, MIN – Out since January 15th with a positive COVID test. Thirteen games and counting.

While it’s impossible to provide finite timelines on player absences, distinguishing between contact-traced players versus ones actually infected by COVID-19 is a good starting point. Thus far the range of recovery periods stretches from two-to-13 games.

Kevin Durant of the Brooklyn Nets was in contact with an individual who tested positive for COVID-19 subjecting him to a mandatory seven-day quarantine. Should he return two negative tests with a 24-hour period, he’s eligible to return by Friday. You can stream a guy like Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot, but don’t expect more than three to four games of value.

PG, SG: Jrue Holiday, MIL

With teammate Khris Middleton stating Holiday has contracted COVID-19, expect his absence to be closer to Butler’s than Adebayo’s. This is a good opportunity to stream fill-in players like Donte DiVincenzo or Bryn Forbes who’ll get more playing time with the Milwaukee Bucks and provide several games of enhanced value.

SURGERY EXPECTATIONS

Generally speaking, injuries requiring surgery have a predictable recovery period for the average athlete. If you look at Kristaps Porzingis’ timeline below, it’s a good benchmark:

  • August 28th, 2020 – Diagnosed with a lateral meniscus tear in right knee which will require surgery. While no initial timeline was given, reports state a three-to-six month recovery period from his surgery.
  • October 9th, 2020 – Porzingis undergoes procedure to repair right knee, no timeline given.
  • December 3, 2020 – Porzingis confirms he’s “feeling good” since beginning his rehab.
  • January 13th, 2021 – Returns for his first game of the 2020-21 season, 4.5 months after surgery.

SF, PF: De’Andre Hunter, ATL

The Hawks front office offered up a 7-to-10 week timeline as Hunter recovers from right meniscus surgery. Using Porzingis as a comparison, you should have confidence he returns at the stated timeline but just know it’ll take him a few games to ramp up just like Porzingis needed. If you’re involved in a trade for the Hawks wingman, bake in an additional week of recovery when determining his season-long value.

SOFT TISSUE INJURY EXPECTATIONS

Take a look at Evan Fournier’s injury timeline below:

  • December 31st, 2020 – Suffers back spasms, won’t return to game. Initially expected to miss a few games at most.
  • January 1st, 2021 to January 6th, 2021 – Listed as questionable for three games.
  • January 8th, 2021 – January 18th, 2021 – Listed as a game-time decision, misses six more games.
  • January 20th, 2021 – Returns and plays with a minutes restriction (28 minutes played).
  • February 5th, 2021 – Re-aggravates back injury after nine games in the lineup.

In this season more so than in others, proceed with caution when assessing players with soft tissue injuries. Fournier’s injury seemed minor at first but then he missed nine games. After minimal reports on his injury suggesting it wasn’t serious, OG Anunoby has been listed as questionable for seven games in a row for the Toronto Raptors with a left calf strain.

The takeaway for this season is to pounce on the replacement players when injuries get reported. Even if the injured player returns earlier than expectation, the risk-reward ratio is likely worth it.

PF, C: LaMarcus Aldridge, SA

The Spurs big man has missed the past three games with a hip flexor soreness. At first it was unclear if he’d be missing just a single game or multiple. But in line with the thinking I mention above, this is a great opportunity to stream Jakob Poeltl whose minutes have jumped up to 30.9 mpg versus 20.1 mpg prior to Aldridge’s injury. Even if the organization is providing minimal details, take the risk and slot in the replacement player for the short-term value. Chances are the injured player misses more time than initial expectations. These streaming opportunities throughout the season will be key for managers especially in head-to-head leagues.