Feb 11, 2022
Setting The Pick: Post-Trade Deadline Dissection
As the dust settles on the NBA landscape following a chaotic trade deadline, Wesley Cheng breaks down how the Nets-Sixers blockbuster trade could have a ripple effect on futures odds around the league.

Think you can name every deal that was made over the past 24 hours?
Adrian Wojnarowski and Shams Charania had the NBA world glued to their phones and even then, it was easy to miss minor deals that were overshadowed by some of the bigger, more game-changing trades.
The six-player trade between Sacramento and Indiana was labelled a blockbuster as it happened on Tuesday, then we got the mother of all blockbusters at the eleventh-hour on Thursday that set NBA twitter ablaze.
James Harden broke up Brooklyn’s Big Three after they played just 16 games on the court together over two seasons.
Ben Simmons finalized his divorce with Philly and gets a new start on a team immediately in position to compete for the Larry O’Brien Trophy.
It’s uncommon in the NBA these days that we have a landscape-altering trade that could be a win-win.
This one swap will have massive ripple effects that should lead to more changes with respect to futures pricing.
Brooklyn Nets
Pre-Deadline Championship Odds: +350
Current Championship Odds: +420
Harden is a former MVP and one of the league’s top isolation playmakers. Having him alongside Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving should’ve been the greatest offence of all-time. Going from that ceiling to any alternative understandably feels like a letdown. That’s why it’s understandable to see their championship odds lengthen.
Having said that, in a perfect world where Simmons, Seth Curry, and Andre Drummond are fully integrated with KD and Kyrie, I’d argue they are actually be a better fit on paper.
Brooklyn current sits 21st in defensive rating on the season. They’re 27th in defensive rebounding percentage. By bringing in a DPOY-calibre player in Simmons and a rebounding machine in Drummond, the roles are more balanced.
Durant is arguably the most unstoppable offensive weapon on the planet. He was one shoe size away from single-handedly ending the Bucks’ championship run last year.
Harden and KD seemed redundant. Simmons and KD should be complimentary.
Philadelphia 76ers
Pre-Deadline Championship Odds: +1100
Current Championship Odds: +650
When the alternative was no Simmons at all for the rest of 2021-22, getting a former MVP back in Harden is as good as it gets.
Embiid has been a menace on offence consistently forcing opponents to throw double-teams on him. But now with The Beard in the mix, Philly is poised to really punish those defences if they choose to gamble.
On the season, the Sixers rank 28th in three-point attempts per game. In today’s modern NBA, it’s hard to compete against the league’s best without legitimate threats behind the arc.
Harden will be Embiid’s first ever elite offensive teammate, and they have the potential to be the most lethal pick-and-roll combo in the league.
Both Philly and Brooklyn get superstars with renewed energy which should spark inspired play over the next few months.
Atlantic Division Winner Odds
Toronto Raptors: +700
On Monday, I spotlighted the Raptors at +950 to win the Atlantic Division. They were three games back of first and they’ve actually moved up to just one game behind Philly.
A day after the NBA trade deadline, I’m saying everything has changed.
The Raps are coming in hot.
— Wesley Cheng (@chengwesley) February 7, 2022
They were +4200 to win the division in preseason.
With the Nets faltering and Philly so heavily dependant on the injury-prone Joel Embiid, is Toronto good value at +950 to win the division? They're just 3 games back. https://t.co/IPl0Js13KT
There’s no denying the Raptors are red-hot having won eight straight, the longest current streak in the NBA, but betting on them to win the division required both favourites above to underperform.
Betting on the Raps, you were basically banking on Simmons to sit out the entire season and Irving to miss all remaining home games.
With those two variables potentially changing now, New York updating their vaccine requirements, I’m bearish on Toronto’s Division chances.
It’s also worth reminding bettors that Toronto’s win total was set at 37.5 in preseason. They were +4200 to win the Atlantic on October 19th.
There’s no denying Toronto has exceeded expectations but there’s a difference between an A+ for effort and an A+ relative to the league. The Raps play in the same division as two title contenders. Now both those squads are motivated to play out all remaining regular season games.
NBA Player Awards Futures
Joel Embiid to win MVP: +220
As it stands, the pricing for Regular Season MVP didn’t flinch pre and post-trade deadline. The top-four candidates all have the same odds as they did Wednesday.
This trade will boost up Embiid’s chances.
More than two thirds of the season has passed and all the narratives and statistical production are relatively set in stone. The only way Embiid doesn’t finish as an MVP finalist is if he succumbs to an injury or his scoring drops below 20 points per game.
Many factors go into the MVP calculus but winning is inevitably a key part of the equation.
Nikola Jokic and Giannis Antetokounmpo currently sit second and third in pricing. Both suffer from voter fatigue having won the award in previous seasons.
I don’t think Embiid has much more to do statistically to garner MVP consideration.
Sitting just three games out of first place, the presence of Harden has the chance to push them right to the top. If Philly gets there, Embiid’s narrative will be very difficult to vote against.