May 3, 2022
Setting The Pick: Reacting to Conference Semis Game 1s
Milwaukee was the only underdog to pull off a Game 1 upset. The oddsmakers nailed the other lines, with Golden State and Phoenix winning their respective games within one point of the closing spread.

Milwaukee was the only underdog to pull off a Game 1 upset.
The oddsmakers nailed the other lines, with Golden State and Phoenix winning their respective games within one point of the closing spread.
While each team won differently, it’s worth pointing out the more experienced roster in every series opened on the right foot.
Here are some key takeaways to consider looking ahead to tonight and tomorrow’s games:
(2) Boston Celtics vs. (3) Milwaukee Bucks
Pre-Series Odds:
BOS -200
MIL +168
Current Series Odds:
BOS +108
MIL -126
1) Giannis Antetokounmpo continues to evolve as a playmaker
The Greek Freak shot 9-of-25 from the field and 6-of-11 from the line, yet the Bucks won by 12.
Gulp.
Sunday was the first game Giannis shot below 50 per cent from the field since March 2nd, 20 games ago.
While his shot wasn’t falling, he displayed his ability to find open teammates. His 12 assists were a season-high.
With Khris Middleton out, both Giannis and Jrue Holiday saw a significant boost in usage rate.
Expect Boston to try and force the ball out of Antetokounmpo’s hands.
Best bet: Antetokounmpo over 6.5 assists
2) Milwaukee is going to let Boston’s role players shoot threes
During the regular season, the Bucks had the second-highest opponent's three-point attempt frequency (44.8 per cent).
The Celtics shot the third-most three-pointers a game (44.7 per cent of total shots).
In Game 1, just under 60 per cent of Boston’s field-goal attempts were from deep. They scored 20 points in the paint.
Boston is a top-10 team from deep, so don’t expect them to shy away from the three-ball.
Horford took nine attempts from deep. Eight of them were wide open.
Best bets: Horford over 1.5 threes
(2) Memphis Grizzlies vs. (3) Golden State Warriors
Pre-Series Odds:
MEM +210
GSW -255
Current Series Odds:
MEM +410
GSW -550
1) Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, and Jordan Poole shot 32 of the Warriors’ 38 three-point attempts
With Poole playing at this level, Golden State is nearly impossible to defend beyond the arc.
17 of those 38 threes were of the wide-open variety, and they shot 41.2 per cent (7-of-17).
With a full game of Draymond Green on the floor, I expect the off-ball movement to be even better.
32 combined three-point attempts might be tough to repeat but those three players averaged 25.2 in Round 1. They shot 44.4 per cent.
During the regular season, Memphis was 18th in the NBA, allowing opponents to shoot 35.1 per cent from deep.
They’re currently allowing the second-worst three-point percentage of the eight remaining teams.
Best bets: Poole over 2.5 threes, Thompson over 3.5 threes, Curry over 3.5 threes
2) Memphis can hurt Golden State on the glass
It’s one thing to spot an impending mismatch ahead of a series, it’s another to watch it in action.
Jaren Jackson Jr. ripped down six offensive rebounds. He only had one better performance all season (eight versus the Clippers on Feb. 8).
With Golden State moving Kevon Looney to the bench, their defensive rebounding rate has dropped to second-worst of the remaining playoff teams.
Even without Steven Adams on the floor, Memphis is super effective crashing the glass.
If Jackson can keep himself out of foul trouble, that advantage will be available to capitalize on all series.
Best bet: Jackson over 7.5 rebounds
(1) Miami Heat vs. (4) Philadelphia 76ers
Pre-Series Odds:
MIA -310
PHI +250
Current Series Odds:
MIA -590
PHI +440
1) Until Joel Embiid returns, expect Miami to lean on Bam Adebayo
In Round 1, Adebayo had some pretty ugly numbers. He averaged 12.4 points, 8.0 rebounds, 3.6 assists.
During the regular season he was a nightly double-double threat averaging 19.1 points, 10.1 rebounds, 3.4 assists.
The game plan was clear in the first quarter, get the ball into Adebayo and let him work. He went 4-of-6 with all shots coming in the paint.
As the game went on, they kind of got away from Bam and the Sixers managed to claw back going into the half with a one-point lead.
The worst stretches for Miami’s offence occurred when Philly went zone. If you want to get cheeky, attack the first quarter spread where the defensive schemes are typically more standard man-to-man.
Best bet: Miami first quarter winner + Adebayo 15+ points
2) Tobias Harris was involved in the offence (wow)
In the series versus Toronto, 32 per cent of Harris’ shot attempts were catch-and-shoot three-pointers. That’s a lot of standing around in the corners.
Against Miami, Harris took 8 pull-up shots, double the 3.3 he averaged in six games against the Raptors.
Considering James Harden’s ineffectiveness, the Sixers leaned on Harris more often for shot-making and he delivered. He led the team in field-goal attempts and was easily the most efficient scorer.
Tyrese Maxey is as dynamic as they come, but in terms of team pecking order, Harris showed in Game 1, he has seniority.
Best bet: Harris over 19.5 points
(1) Phoenix Suns vs. (4) Dallas Mavericks
Pre-Series Odds:
PHX -295
DAL +240
Current Series Odds:
PHX -490
DAL +380
1) The Mavs are going to live and die by Luka Doncic
I called this one wrong last article.
With Jalen Brunson having such an effective Round 1, I thought Dallas would have a more balanced offensive gameplan.
If Game 1 taught us anything, Coach Jason Kidd is perfectly fine letting Doncic do it all.
While Mikal Bridges had a tremendous defensive performance in their first matchup, Doncic still shot 50 per cent from the field, dropping a casual 45-point performance in the loss.
Phoenix rarely sent help and left Bridges or Crowder on an island often.
Strategies constantly evolve over the course of a series, but I think the Suns were content with leaving Bridges in isolation defence.
Though Phoenix barely covered the spread, they had a 16-point lead with five minutes to go. The game was not as close as the final suggests.
Best Bet: Doncic over everything
2) The Mavs have no answer for Deandre Ayton
Like Adebayo versus Philly, Dallas has no answer for Ayton in the post.
Ayton led the Suns with 25 points and took 80 per cent of his shots in the paint.
His shooting touch was on in Game 1 hitting some sweet fadeaways and hook shots.
Dwight Powell doesn’t have the height or athleticism to match what Ayton can do around the rim.
Add in the fact Chris Paul only hit him with two assists and you can see why I’m bullish on him to continue scoring in the post.
Best Bet: Ayton over 19.5 points