Rarely do you see so many tight battles in the NBA futures market with only two weeks to go. 

At this stage, narratives typically become ingrained, or players have certain awards locked down. 

Tyler Herro is the example this season. He’s had Sixth Man of The Year locked down for what feels like an eternity. 

Though pricing has shortened slightly for Ja Morant now that he’s out with another injury, Most Improved Player is almost guaranteed to end up in his trophy case. 

It’s fitting that these tight races are happening in one of the most competitive seasons we’ve had in decades. 

Let’s look at what NBA futures are still up for discussion and make the case for each candidate: 

Most Valuable Player

Two years in a row, Nikola Jokic and Joel Embiid have locked horns for the league’s coveted regular-season award. For the last several weeks, The Process has been leading the race, but after ESPN’s Tim Bontemps released his latest straw poll, oddsmakers have adjusted their pricing: 

Let’s make the argument for why you’d bet either: 

Nikola Jokic, -140 

The reality is player futures are based on votes by members of the media. While Bontemps’ straw poll of 100 media members is unofficial, it’s a credible litmus test of where the wind is blowing. 

62 first-place votes give him a resounding advantage. 

His supporters loudly preach how his advanced numbers show he’s having a generational season. Whether it's Player Efficiency Rating, Win Share, Value Over Replacement Player, or Box Plus/Minus, Jokic sits atop all of them. 

A big part of Embiid’s narrative has been Philly’s success despite Ben Simmons not playing.

Well, Jokic has done it all season with Denver’s number two and three option (Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr.) out for the season. 

Denver might be the sixth seed out West, but they’re currently just two games behind the Sixers. 

Joel Embiid, +125

While Embiid hasn’t been the front-runner all season, he’s been ahead of Jokic in MVP pricing until this recent straw poll. 

The peak of Embiid’s candidacy came between Christmas and the trade deadline when he led the league averaging 33.8 points per game. 

The Ben Simmons narrative loomed large over the first four months of the season, but since he was shipped off at the deadline, it’s not as if Embiid has dropped off. 

Pre-Harden: 46 games, 29.6 pts, 11.2 reb, 4.5 ast, 1.0 stl, 1.4 blk, 49.5 fg, 81.3 ft
Post-Harden: 16 games, 30.8 pts, 12.1 reb, 3.6 ast, 1.6 st, 1.4 blk, 47.3 fg, 82.5 ft

Embiid’s scoring is up since Harden’s arrival, and he’s stacked on the defensive stats in those 16 games since. 

In a much more competitive Eastern Conference, Philly sits one game back of the top seed. 

Rookie of the Year

It seemed that Evan Mobley was a runaway for this award, getting as short as -625 at the beginning of March. Scottie Barnes is making a serious late push with seven games left, and oddsmakers have reacted accordingly.

Evan Mobley, -330

If you compare the stats for these two side-by-side, there’s very little separating them. But what you don’t see in the numbers is how perfectly Mobley fits into this Cleveland team. 

There’s no denying the Cavs’ defence has fallen off a cliff since Jarrett Allen’s injury this month, but the power of those two together is something we haven’t seen since perhaps the ‘Twin Towers’ days of Tim Duncan and David Robinson. 

When Allen and Mobley are on the court, those lineups allow a stingy 103.7 defensive rating against their opponents. 

While almost all past Rookie Of The Year winners have gotten it done on the offensive end, Mobley is the rare candidate garnering attention for his defence. Because you don’t see it often, it adds that extra bit of shine. 

How often do you see a first-year player get tossed in the mix for Defensive Player of Year? He’s currently priced as the eighth option.

Scottie Barnes, +280

Since the All-Star Break, Barnes has been on a heater capturing the attention of media members down south. 

What JJ Redick says in the video above encapsulates his candidacy – he’s making game-changing plays on a very competitive Toronto Raptors roster. 

Like Mobley, the fact that Barnes has fit so perfectly into this Raptors’ offence is what makes him deserving. 

His versatile impact is the core of his case – he can get his own shot, drop showstopping dimes, and clamp down on defence, unlike some of the other candidates. 

Amongst rookies since the All-Star Break, he’s second in fantasy points per game just behind Cade Cunningham and has the best individual defensive rating amongst all top candidates. 

Defensive Player of the Year

Just outside of the spotlight is the neglected DPOY race which has experienced the most volatility over the last few months. 

Surprisingly, three candidates are all priced within striking distance which might leave the most value on the table. 

Marcus Smart, +170

Bleacher Report posted a ticket of a user who got in on Marcus Smart for DPOY at +24000 on February 26th. He’s now the front-runner. 

If you haven’t been watching the NBA since the All-Star Break, the story of the East has been the gauntlet that’s the Boston Celtics. 

Since the break, they’ve gone 13-3 and are swallowing up teams on the defensive end. 

Boston has the association’s best defensive rating at 105.9, and Smart has been their anchor. 

In today’s NBA, teams average roughly 110 points per game. 

Boston has held their opponents under 100 points in 50 per cent of their games in 2022. 

Bam Adebayo, +260

Another out of left-field candidate, on February 7th, you could have gotten in on Adebayo DPOY at +13000. 

Since then, Miami has been the league’s second-best defence, just behind Boston, and Bam is the anchor to everything they do. 

He had the shortest odds up until this recent meltdown the Heat are going through. 

Adebayo doesn’t come out atop any advanced defensive metrics, but this Miami defence just collapses when he’s not on the floor. Their defensive rating drops off 4.5 points when he sits. 

Mikal Bridges, +390

Bridges was such an obscure option. 

Several sportsbooks didn’t even have DPOY pricing available for him to begin the season. Now he’s the third candidate. 

Bridges is in the discussion for the most versatile wing defender in the entire NBA, a much-needed asset for any team given the league’s talent pool. 

On the season, Phoenix has the second-best defence and just like how Chris Paul and Devin Booker close things out in clutch time, Mikal shuts opponents down when it matters most. 

While I think he’s very worthy of this award, I don’t think he’ll ever get as much attention as needed to be anointed the NBA’s top defensive stopper.