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Week 1 is in the books for the NBA, and while no major paradigm shifts have taken place, minor handicapping adjustments should be made based off of what we saw.

Rotations, minutes, and usage rates can all remain a preseason mystery but now that the regular season has arrived, you have to be quick accounting for these observations.

I’m not saying the Utah Jazz aren’t suddenly title contenders.

The Philadelphia 76ers won’t be going 0-82.

And it’s not a new era of double-digit 30 plus point scorers.

But here are some notes to consider for this week’s slate of NBA betting.

TEAMS

Utah Jazz (3-0 ATS)

Speaking of those pesky Jazz, until the front office breaks this team up, they’re going to be a tough matchup night in, night out.

Utah saw their preseason wins total pushed all the way down to 23.5 after the Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell trades with the public assuming Danny Ainge would go two feet in on the tank-a-thon for Victor Wembanyama. They’re half right.

It’s one thing for the front office to have a plan, it’s another to convince the players on the court to stop competing.

This Utah lineup is full of capable NBA players and unless they’re forced to sit games, don’t expect any of them to throttle their own play. They’re out to make a living for themselves.

This team is consistently putting five-out rotations with above average shooters. They lead the league with 42.0 three-point attempts per game on 38.9 efficiency, eighth-best so far.

The play: Jazz over team and game totals

Los Angeles Lakers (0-3 ATS)

Most NBA fans knew the fit around LeBron James was bad but three games in, it’s official. No lasers, no good for LBJ.

With the exception of Matt Ryan who’s played 30 minutes over two games, not a single rotation player is shooting above 30 per cent from deep.

James leads the team with 2.3 three-pointers made per game and while he’s improved his shot significantly since last season, that’s not the LBJ championship recipe.

To the Lakers’ credit, they own the second-best defensive rating through Week 1.

And while they own the league’s second-fastest pace, their offensive rating is in its own tier of futility, currently dead last.

Their 44.5 win total is looking like an under unless a mid-season trade happens.

The play: Lakers under team and game totals

New Orleans Pelicans (2-1 ATS)

Injuries to Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson bring an overcast energy to the Pelicans when the mood should overwise be sunny.

Even though they suffered an unexpected loss to the Jazz, New Orleans has looked very effective as a unit, currently owning the league’s sixth best net rating.

Zion is so effective at getting to the rim, opposing defences are constantly collapsing to help and creating opportunities for his teammates.

Jonas Valanciunas was a potential bust candidate in fantasy this season but seems to be carving out an effective role beside Zion.

Health will be their downfall, but as we saw in their playoff series again Phoenix last year, their length can be smothering on the defensive end while on offence, they have several effective scorers who get buckets in complimentary ways.

The play: Pelicans ATS

PLAYER PROPS

Pascal Siakam

A little bit of eye test stuff. A little bit of quantitative monitoring.

Siakam showed signs of taking a leap after a stellar post-ASW run to end last season which led to his second All-NBA team appearance.

In fantasy, part of his appeal was his minutes floor. The bonus so far has been his uptick in usage rate.

Through Week 1, Siakam’s usage rate ranks 15th in the NBA and he’s attempting 20 shots a game - easily a career-high.

He’s also improving as a playmaker evidenced by his 7.0 assist per game.

If Scottie Barnes is out for multiple games, this is a great window to capitalize on Siakam’s new form. He averaged 44.8 points, rebounds, and assists in five games last year with Barnes out of the lineup.

The play: Siakam over points + rebounds + assists

James Harden

Injuries had plagued The Beard during his time in Brooklyn and even during his half season with Philly last year, his shooting efficiency had cratered.

There was a lot of doom and gloom hanging over him with analysts suggesting his days as an effective scorer were over.

He took a pay cut this off-season for team building purposes and has rebounded effectively in his first full season with Embiid and company.

After years of playing in Houston’s analytics scoring system, Harden has rejigged his offence with the Sixers, taking a higher proportion of shots from the mid-range.

Perhaps his effective field-goal percentage will regress, but so far he’s hit 8-of-11 from the mid-range, which gives his offence more versatility.

With more room for growth from three (currently 31.8 per cent), Harden’s point props will continue scaling up from his opening line of 19.5.

The play: Harden over points

De’Aaron Fox

After the Tyrese Haliburton for Domantas Sabonis trade, Fox saw his numbers spike across the board with the Kings backcourt all to himself. Here are his pre and post-Haliburton numbers:

Oct. 20 – Jan. 19: 41 games, 21.0 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 5.1 apg, 45.8 FG and 74.4 FT
Feb. 8 – Mar. 16: 16 games, 28.9 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 6.8 apg, 50.3 FG and 76.6 FT

 

Those numbers have carried over to this season and he’s looked the part.

His field-goal percentage is unsustainably at 59.4 right now but even if it drops, it won’t be as low as his previous seasons. He’s finished 9 of 10 shots at the rim thus far and is shooting 45 per cent from three on seven attempts per game.

These stats have come against two difficult defensive opponents in the Clippers and Warriors.

The play: Fox over points + rebounds + assists

FUTURES

Rookie of the Year

Paolo Banchero has started with three consecutive 20-point performances and saw his odds shorten from +200 to +140 on FanDuel.

Bennedict Mathurin has made the most noise of the pack leading all rookies in scoring (24.0 ppg) while averaging five minutes less per game than the No. 1 overall pick. FanDuel has him listed as the second favourite at +390.

Most Improved Player

Another Pacer, Tyrese Haliburton went from +2500 to a two-way tie for first on FanDuel’s list. Him and Anthony Edwards are both currently +1000 to win MIP.

Haliburton is currently averaging 25.7 ppg, 4.3 rpg, and 9.7 apg.

That’s 10 more points and 1.5 more assists per game over last year even though he’s averaging 3.0 less minutes.

He’s next.

Sixth Man of the Year

Jordan Poole has long been the favourite for this award, but Christian Wood is quickly staking his claim as top dog.

Dallas has only played two games, but Wood has proven to be an impactful bench player for the Mavs scoring 25.0 ppg – more than a point per minute so far.

The low minutes might hold him back, but if his usage rate sustains, the waters will get muddied up top.