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Tell me if you’ve heard this before – the 2022-23 NBA season is all about parity.

34 games in, no team in the NBA has lost less than 10 games.

Five out of six division leaders are up by two games or less.

While it’s been an unpredictable season so far, opportunity remains for those willing to adjust on the fly.

Let’s go through some of the most topical stories over the holiday week.

LEAGUE WIDE NOTES

Here Come The Nets

Since Head Coach Jacque Vaughn took the reins in Brooklyn, the team has stabilized to a 20-7 record - best in the NBA over that period.

If the good vibes continue, there’s a high likelihood he finishes as a finalist for Coach of the Year.

There was a lot of noise about the Boston Celtics earlier this month being on pace for a historic offensive-rating. Well, they’ve fallen off.

Over 11 games in December, the Nets have gone 10-1 with a 121.0 offensive rating which would trump Boston’s rate from earlier in the year.

So, what’s happening?

It’s not like their shot selection efficiency has been elite. They rank 29th according to Cleaning The Glass.

They’re not particularly good at protecting the ball, ranking 19th in turnover ratio.

They average the fewest offensive rebounds in the NBA.

As much as haters will hate, it boils down to Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving.

Both players are in the elusive 50-40-90 club this month combining for 57.4 ppg – second only to LeBron James and Anthony Davis.  

With their on-court gravity, Brooklyn’s role players are getting increasingly easier looks.

The Nets currently have seven players (including KD and Kyrie) shooting above 40 per cent from deep taking more than two attempts a game.

On the season, Brooklyn is second in shooting efficiency at the rim.

The analytics community is shaping defences to close out on threes and drop back into the paint, but this is just giving Durant more space to operate in the mid-range.

He leads the league with 225 makes in the mid-range at a 59 per cent clip.  

Defences are giving up that area of the court which has led to a career-high true shooting percentage for KD.

This current nine-game win streak has catapulted the Nets to third in the East and caused Durant’s MVP odds to drop from a high of +3500 to +850.

 

The play: Brooklyn Nets over team totals

Western Conference Carousel

Since the beginning of November, there have been six different teams to sit atop the Western Conference – Phoenix, Utah, Portland, New Orleans, Memphis, and now Denver.

At the moment, seeds one through nine are separated by only four games.

In the Pacific, the Clippers have a half-game lead over the Suns yet are priced at +350 to win the division.

In the Southwest, New Orleans currently sit ahead of Memphis by a half-game as well and are +135.

The rotating carousel and plus pricing tells you, the West is wide open.

The Suns, Clippers and Warriors all sit outside the top three yet are the betting favourites on FanDuel to make the NBA Finals.

Looking at previous NBA seasons, there’s a growing trend of veteran teams ‘load managing’ their rosters to peak in the playoffs.

But with fans fully in attendance once again, home-court advantage is playing a bigger role.

For these young teams, they’ll want every advantage they can get when Spring rolls around.

Denver, New Orleans and Memphis sit one through three and have all battled injuries these past few weeks.

With good health, it wouldn’t be a surprise if one of them wrapped the regular season at the top.

None of these three franchises have ever finished as 1-seed in their history.

The play: Denver, New Orleans, and Memphis to keep winning ATS

PLAYER PROPS

LaMelo Is LaHere

After missing 13 games to open the season and subsequently sitting for another 11 after a freak injury involving a fan, LaMelo Ball is making up for lost time.

Since his return this month, he’s played seven games scoring no less than 23 points every night.

Over his first two seasons, he averaged 15.7 and 20.1 ppg.

The biggest adjustment has been his shot frequency from deep. Even though his efficiency is the same as last season, he’s up to 11.2 attempts per game which puts him second just behind Stephen Curry.

In 2021-22, he ranked 25th in three-point attempts.

These are the shots he’s taking.

 

Charlotte has not had much success defensively even with Head Coach Steve Clifford at the helm.

In these seven games with Ball starting, their defensive rating has worsened with their pace also speeding up.

The Hornets were 15th in pace prior to his return.

They have been No. 1 since.

I don’t envision this team blatantly tanking but I also don’t see them changing their style of play. Coach Clifford will get them to play hard but ultimately let them run and gun.

The play: Ball over three-point makes and Charlotte overs

The Joker Is Inevitable

Last week I listed out three milestones I felt Nikola Jokic had to complete in order to win a third straight MVP trophy.

- Denver to finish with the best record in the NBA

- Jokic to average a triple-double

- Jokic to finish with more points per game than 2021-22

After three games, he improved on every single one.

When a 41-15-15 triple-double doesn’t excite you, that’s a sign Jokic fatigue has arrived.

Night after night, The Joker keeps stacking elite performances, getting the Nuggets to the 1-seed out West.

Even if it feels like you’re buying high, there’s a specific prop I would target – Jokic assists.

Here’s why.

Michael Porter Jr. has missed 13 games since late-November but returned two games ago.

He’s an underrated scoring threat for Denver and is their most reliable one after Jokic.

MPJ doesn’t offer much as a playmaker, but he is one of the best at finishing possessions.

He’s currently shooting 40.5 per cent from deep and of his 49 makes, 46 of them were assisted by a teammate.

 

With an elite scoring option back on the court, Jokic could be a nightly triple-double machine, dishing out 10+ dimes more often than not.

The play: Jokic triple-doubles and over assist props

FUTURES

Doncic Downturn

It’s been three seasons in a row that Luka Doncic opened as the preseason betting favourite to win MVP.

Unfortunately for him, he’s falling out of contention once again.

Ahead of opening night, he was priced at +450 on FanDuel. He peaked at +260 in the middle of November and now sits as the fourth option at +600.

Doncic is second in the league in scoring, second in advanced metrics like Win Share and Box Plus/Minus and first in faking out opposing defenders, but the Mavericks’ team record will ultimately hold him back.

There’s no denying he’s one of the league’s most unstoppable offensive forces but there are too many other superstars in the league carrying their teams to the top.

Dallas is currently seventh in the West and haven’t gone on a winning streak longer than four games.

Currently winners of three straight, they get four winnable games in a row before hosting the Celtics in the new year.

If you’re a believer in Luka Magic, this may be a good buy-low window.

I caution bettors to place heavier emphasis on winning percentage before considering a future on him.

It’s Banchero Over Everyone

Speaking of Doncic, no rookie has jumped out to such a commanding lead for Rookie of the Year since the Slovenian in 2019.

We’re less than halfway through the NBA season but barring injury, Paolo Banchero has this award locked up.

He’s currently -650 on FanDuel.

 

Last year, it took Evan Mobley until March to reach this price point and even then, he didn’t win.

 

Ball led for most of the 2021 season but wasn’t a runaway until late-March.

Ja Morant was never a commanding favourite until the end even with Zion Williamson missing the first 44 games of his career.

It looked like a small window opened for Bennedict Mathurin when Banchero missed seven straight games in November.

But with the Magic winning eight of their last nine games and Banchero clearing 20 points in seven of those, he’s cemented his case as possibly the unanimous choice to win the award.