Setting The Pick – Week 17 Betting Adjustments

Wesley Cheng

Follow| Archive

The balance of power has shifted in the NBA post-trade deadline, as Brooklyn’s implosion has separated the elites from the field.

With Kevin Durant heading to Phoenix, the Suns catapulted to the front of the list as favourites to win the West.

The Nets’ championship odds dropped from +600 on January 31^st to +12000 present day.

Boston (+270) and Milwaukee (+410) further distanced themselves from the rest of the league as odds-on favourites to hoist the Larry O’Brien trophy.

As the trade deadline passed, 28-of-30 teams were involved in a transaction. Cleveland and Chicago were the only two to stand pat.

While it might feel overwhelming to get organized, there’s plenty of betting opportunities through all the mess.

LEAGUE WIDE NOTES

Post-Trade Deadline Rotation Minutes

As fantasy managers know, saving your transactions for the trade deadline can result in league winning adds.

These are some of the situations that could be exploited.

Brooklyn – One of the highest variance teams post-trade deadline, if you can sort out the rotation minutes for their wings, there should be opportunities aplenty.

Upon first glance, Ben Simmons is trending down averaging 14.5 minutes over these first two games.

His stat line so far – 3.0 ppg, 3.0 rpg, 2.5 apg.

It might take the entire team a week or two to get organized. The offence will be sub-optimal in the short-term.

Dallas – With Kyrie Irving in town, I foresee two ways to approach the betting market.

If the price is right, Luka Doncic unders logically makes sense as it likely takes a few games for the two superstars to coalesce.

As all the attention gravitates to them, the supporting cast should theoretically have a higher volume of open shots. With Dorian Finney-Smith and Spencer Dinwiddie out of town, Reggie Bullock is a three-point specialist to bet on. Since January, he’s shooting 43.8 per cent from deep.

Utah – Shipping off Mike Conley, Malik Beasley and Jarred Vanderbilt, the Jazz have a lot of minutes to fill with Russell Westbrook still deciding on his future.

Collin Sexton has been the biggest beneficiary so far, going from 23.9 mpg to 32.3 mpg over the last three games. Utah doesn’t have a true point guard with Conley gone, so assists should be the category to target.

Rookie Walker Kessler also stands to gain more playing time now that Vanderbilt is gone. There should be a higher volume of defensive rebounds coming his way as the primary centre.

The play: Sort out rotation minutes for teams that traded multiple players

Western Mid-Tier Logjam

Last season, I spotted an opportunity post-trade deadline to slam the over on game totals as teams began playing their superstars heavier minutes in pursuit of a playoff berth.

With the introduction of the play-in tournament three seasons ago, mid-tier teams simply don’t tank the way they used to.

This season, 10 teams between the fourth and 13^th seed are separated by five games or less.

Every team, including rebuilding ones like Oklahoma City and Utah, stand to gain fighting for a play-in tournament berth.

OKC would love to get their young core meaningful playoff experience, Utah has nothing to lose with their rebuild ahead of schedule, and the rest have all made moves at the deadline to upgrade their rosters.

More superstar minutes traditionally correlates to higher quality shooting, increased free-throw rates, and higher scoring games.

The play: Overs on game totals involving mid-tier teams out West

PLAYER PROPS

Masai Calling Out Toronto’s Ball Movement

It’s safe to say the majority of Raptors fans were underwhelmed by the trade deadline results this season.

Toronto has seemingly done nothing when most expected them to be massive sellers considering the trade rumours.

But as we move forward, President of Basketball Operations, Masai Ujiri, is clearly demonstrating his belief in this core.

In his post-deadline press conference, multiple insiders have flagged his repeated criticism of Toronto’s recent selfish play as an opportunity for growth. 

The stats speak for themselves regarding Toronto’s playmaking.

The Raptors had a 56.0 per cent assist rate prior to Thursday, good for third worst in the NBA this season.

Watching the team play in the lead up to the deadline, it felt like some players were hero-balling more often than not.

Now that everyone knows they’ll be staying put until the summer, I expect the ball movement to increase especially given the mandate from Ujiri.

In these past two games since the deadline, Toronto ranked 15^th in assist rate – a positive improvement for their halfcourt offence.

The play: Over on assists for Toronto’s playmakers

FUTURES

Brunson On The Move

Jalen Brunson’s career-best season is finally getting the attention it deserves.

Coming off a year in Dallas where he averaged 16.3 ppg, his increased role in New York has earned him praise across the league.

Yet just over a month ago, Brunson was still listed at +13000 on FanDuel to win Most Improved Player.

He had started 39 games and was averaging 21.9 ppg, 3.5 rpg, and 6.4 apg at that time.  

Not long after, oddsmakers noticed the gap in their pricing and shortened his odds roughly tenfold down to +1700.

It now currently sits at +480.

What has Brunson done since that time?

He’s led the Knicks to a 6^th ranked offence averaging 28.8 points (9^th in NBA), 3.7 rebounds, and 5.7 assists over 16 games.

In this window, he had seven 30-plus point performances, capped by his 40-point outing in a win last night.

It certainly helps that he’s in the league’s biggest market.