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Two weeks into the NBA season and some early observations are becoming difficult to refute. 

Giannis Antetokounmpo is the best two-way player in the world, and Milwaukee’s defensive performance through five games supports that. 

Paolo Banchero looks like a true superstar garnering praise from almost everyone in sports media for his mature, physical style of play. 

The Lakers are in desperate need of some restructuring after becoming the last team in the NBA to get a win. 

One preseason thought that many, including myself, need to re-evaluate – the tankathon for Victor Wembanyama is a front-office objective that has no bearing on the compete level of the actual players on the court. 

TEAMS / LEAGUE

League Scoring Up

Total scoring is up across the board through two weeks. The average game total last season was 221.2. 

So far this season, it’s 227.4.

Credit small sample size for some variance, but the scoring volume can’t be ignored. 

The distribution of points is also overweight towards the superstars of the league. 

Last season, there were two players who averaged above 30 ppg with the top-10 combining for 28.8 ppg. 

This season, 11 players are above the 30-point threshold with the top-10 averaging 32.3 ppg. 

The new rule change on take fouls could have some influence. The top-10 players in free-throw volume average 9.6 free-throw attempts per game versus 8.4 a year ago. 

The play: Over on superstar scorers or designated foul shooter

San Antonio Spurs (5-2 ATS) 

Gregg Popovich’s squad has been underdogs all seven games this season and won five of them outright. 

If you bet them on the moneyline every game this season, you nearly tripled your investment. 

Impressively, they beat Chicago and Minnesota in back-to-back home games without their first-round draft picks from the previous two years. 

Are they suddenly a play-in tournament threat? I wouldn’t count on it. 

But until the front office starts clearing the deck, this young squad will be out there competing hard every night. 

One thing different about this roster versus older versions, Coach Pop is letting his players fire at will from deep. 

San Antonio is tied for ninth in three-point volume this year. In the past three seasons they were 25th, 30th and 28th. They’re making 14.3 threes a game, sixth best. 

The play: Spurs players over their three-point props

LA Clippers (1-5 ATS)

I’ve been on record claiming the Clippers are a championship threat this season. They’re one of the deepest rosters in the NBA and the fourth choice on FanDuel to win the chip. 

It might be best to fade them until further notice. 

LA’s second-fiddle basketball franchise has been -12.2 points against the spread this season, league-worst. 

They opened the season with two straight wins but only covered their opener against the Lakers by a single point. 

They are in a futile tier of their own at the bottom of the league, averaging 100.7 points per game. Toronto is the second worst, a full four points ahead (104.8). 

The Clippers are bottom-five in three-point volume and percentage and don’t particularly play fast, ranking 18th in pace. 

With Kawhi Leonard and John Wall constantly in and out of the lineup, the team is struggling to develop chemistry especially with the volume of scorers they have. 

The play: Clippers under game and team totals

PLAYER PROPS

Pascal Siakam

Last week I was gassing up Siakam and his overall level of play. 

I need to run it back and encourage you to keep spotlighting his godfather prop in the coming weeks. 

Siakam’s points + rebounds + assists prop number sits at 40.5 heading into their matchup versus Atlanta. 

On opening night, he was at 35.5. 

Even as the oddsmakers steadily push his line up, Siakam has hit the over six straight games. 

There comes a point where the price becomes too rich, but I point to Fred VanVleet’s injury concerns as a chance to keep capitalizing on Siakam. 

FVV is questionable versus Atlanta with lower back stiffness and anytime he’s out of the lineup, Siakam is encumbered with even more playmaking responsibility. 

The play: Siakam over points + rebounds + assists

Tyrese Haliburton

If you asked me to stake my bankroll on one player to win Most Improved Player this season, I would be backing 20-10 threat, Tyrese Haliburton. 

Even though he’s not a flashy scorer with highlight reel dunks or handles, he’s an incredibly efficient scorer. 

Going from 11.8 field-goal attempts last year to 15.7 this season, his percentage has actually improved to 50.0 per cent even with the volume spike. 

He’s averaging 3.0 threes a game on 46.7 per cent shooting. 

His points prop has fluctuated between 16.5 on opening night to a high of 19.5 just two games ago, and he’s hit the over in 6-of-7 contests. 

The line hasn’t fully adjusted because his field-goal volume is by far the lowest amongst the top-20 scorers in the NBA. 

But his talent speaks for itself and should be considered underpriced if his prop sits in the teens.

The play: Haliburton over point props

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Give the man his credit, when SGA has been in the lineup, he’s been a terrorizer. 

He was the primary catalyst in cooking his former team, the Clippers, over back-to-back games at home. 

OKC has covered the spread in 5-of-6 games, the lone miss being against Minnesota when he was out. 

In the preseason, there were concerns he wouldn’t be healthy to begin the regular-season and surprisingly made his debut on opening night. 

He looked better than 100 per cent. 

His field-goal percentage is up to 49.6 from 45.4 last season and his volume has increased by five field-goals per game. 

Shai’s usage rate sits inside the top-10 this season amongst superstars like Kevin Durant and Damian Lillard. 

His opening point prop was 22.5 and has climbed up to 26.5 with Josh Giddey absent. 

Even if his running mate returns for Tuesday, SGA is scoring so efficiently that he warrants action. 

He’s averaging 31.0 ppg through five games. 

The play: Gilgeous-Alexander over point props

FUTURES

Most Valuable Player

After starting 5-0, The Greek Freak is listed as the betting favourite on FanDuel at +320 to win MVP. With Brook Lopez back protecting the rim, Antetokounmpo’s defensive impact is more visible as they lead the league in defensive rating. 

Luka Doncic has opened back-to-back NBA seasons as the betting favourite for MVP. This year, he’s actually earning that distinction. 

Sitting just behind Giannis at +330, Luka Magic is averaging 36.7 points per game and on pace to shoot career-high efficiency for both field-goals and free-throws. The scary part is, he’s only shooting 22.6 per cent from three, suggesting there’s room for growth. 

Defensive Player of the Year

There is a legitimate possibility Giannis becomes the first player in NBA history to win the MVP and DPOY award twice in one season. Michael Jordan and Hakeem Olajuwon are the only others to ever achieve the feat, doing it once each. If Milwaukee maintains the top defence, how can they not vote for Giannis? 

Evan Mobley and the Cleveland Cavaliers currently own the third-best defensive rating in the NBA. Priced at +1600, I think Mobley represents strong value for a team that has a good chance to finish top three in defensive rating carrying over momentum from his rookie season. 

Sixth Man of the Year

This one has narrowed very quickly. On FanDuel, Jordan Poole sits at -110 and Christian Wood is +410. The next two options are at +3600. 

As with all awards, injuries can always become a factor but with 6MOY, there’s a bonus risk of playing too many games with the starting five. 

Based on Head Coach Jason Kidd’s rotations, Wood seems safely parked on Dallas’ bench with Dwight Powell stepping in for JaVale McGee two nights ago when he was out. 

Poole joined the starting five, with Klay Thompson resting in Detroit. If Klay or Steph Curry miss extended time, that’d torpedo his claim on this award.