Nov 8, 2022
Setting The Pick - Week 3 Betting Adjustment
With every NBA team off for Election Day in the US, we get to catch our breath and assess what has and hasn’t been working thus far. Believe it or not, with the exception of Dallas and Sacramento, every team has now played 10 games or more. Here are some notable thoughts after three weeks.
By Wesley Cheng
With every NBA team off for Election Day in the US, we get to catch our breath and assess what has and hasn’t been working thus far.
Believe it or not, with the exception of Dallas and Sacramento, every team has now played 10 games or more.
That’s a large enough sample size to reconsider opinions from preseason and to buy into trends.
Here are some notable thoughts after three weeks:
TEAMS / LEAGUE
Underdogs Are Eating
In the preseason, there were 12 teams projected to finish below .500. Four of them are currently .500 or better. One of them is the 1-seed in the West.
While some of these bottom feeders are solidifying their spots down the lottery, the majority of these teams have seen their projected win totals elevate above expectation.
The Jazz, at their current pace, are projected to win 54 games, according to Cleaning The Glass.
Portland has impressed going 7-3 straight up, especially considering that Damian Lillard and Anfernee Simons have combined for six missed games.
These 12 teams are collectively 69-55-3 against the spread this season (55.6 per cent win rate).
Charlotte has underachieved the most, going 4-7 ATS. The Blazers are tied for No. 1 in the league at 8-2 ATS.
The play: Lean underdogs when picking sides
Golden State Growing Pains (3-8 ATS)
The Warriors are a league-worst 27.3 per cent against the spread with their point differential sitting at -7.9.
Don’t blame Stephen Curry though. Coming off a 47-point MVP performance versus the Kings, he’s sitting at 32.6 points per game, seven more than last season when he was an early-season MVP favourite.
If you’re going after Golden State, you’re trying to exploit their bench.
All five Warriors starters have an on/off rating above 20.6 points per 100 possessions, all players are top five percentile in the NBA.
The mix of Jordan Poole, James Wiseman, and Jonathan Kuminga are essentially league-worst, all in the bottom two percentile of on/off tracking.
It’s one thing to have a bad bench and to limit their minutes.
It’s another to stay stubbornly committed to youth development.
Curry and Andrew Wiggins are the only starters averaging above 30 minutes per game.
The bench is getting more run than their play warrants, but if the Warriors stick to the long-term plan, it spells an opportunity for the betting public.
The play: Bet ATS versus Golden State and in-game against their bench unit
Cleveland Cavaliers (8-2 ATS)
The Cavs opened with a 27.5-win total last season and finished with a 44-38 record.
They were one of the best ATS teams, especially early on, and that trend continues into this season.
In October, FanDuel had the Cavs pegged as the sixth seed based on their win totals. They currently sit one game back of Milwaukee for first.
Considering the adjustment period of incorporating Donovan Mitchell in addition to the six games Darius Garland has missed to open the year, it’s really impressive to see Cleveland pull off this eight-game win streak.
If it weren’t for a late fourth-quarter meltdown against the Clippers, where they blew a 13-point lead with five minutes remaining, they’d be on a nine-game cover streak.
They’ve had two impressive overtime victories against the defending Eastern Conference Champs.
In the other seven games, they’ve been favoured, they covered by an average margin of 7.3 points.
They own the league’s top net rating at 10.5 and have the second-best defence. Their offence has jumped from 20th to fourth this year.
They’re real.
The play: Bet on the Cavs ATS or ML
PLAYER PROPS
Devin Vassell
San Antonio’s former 11th overall pick probably deserves more love in the Most Improved Player market, but several flashier players are priced ahead of him.
With less buzz than he deserves, exploit Vassell in the prop market.
Since opening the year with an 11-point stinker, he’s scored 17 points or more in all other six games and covered his point prop line.
For the majority of the season, his line has floated between 14.5 and 16.5. He’s cracked the 20-point mark in five of seven games.
With Joshua Primo out of the mix, additional minutes are up for grabs in the Spurs backcourt.
Vassell is red-hot from deep, averaging 3.4 threes on 46.2 per cent efficiency. While that’s likely unsustainable, the usage and minutes should remain.
The play: Vassell over points and three-point props
Reggie Jackson
Even though the Clippers pulled off a miraculous comeback versus the Cavs last game, their struggles remain apparent.
Kawhi Leonard’s availability has become a huge red flag.
John Wall has missed three back-to-backs thus far.
The pecking order on offence looks clear as mud behind Paul George.
The Clippers share the unfortunate distinction with their neighbours as the two worst offences in the NBA right now.
They’re 20th in pace, 24th in turnover percentage, and 27th in free-throw rate.
Jackson is a player in particular who’s taken a steep drop-off.
Last season, he averaged 16.8 ppg with a 28.4 usage rate on 16.3 field-goal attempts per game.
Even though his minutes are nearly identical, his scoring is down to 10.1 ppg, his usage rate sits at 18.7, and he’s taking 6.5 less shots a game.
The team is filled with ball handlers and Jackson sits 10th amongst 10 qualified teammates in effective field-goal percentage.
His minutes don’t match his production. It’ll only gets worse when Leonard returns and Wall gets more comfortable.
The play: Jackson under points and three-point props
Jabari Smith Jr.
It’s human nature to support popular players and bet their overs.
That’s the vulnerability of sportsbooks – the bettor can pick whichever side they want.
When you’re glancing over box scores, you’re likely drawn to the big performances. But sometimes, it pays to punish the guys who are struggling.
The third overall pick, Smith Jr., is a guy who’s completely out of sorts at the moment.
Even though he’s firmly locked in Houston’s starting five, he’s struggling to carve out his role, similar to how fellow rookies Paolo Banchero or Bennedict Mathurin have.
His best game came back over two weeks ago, where the Rockets took down the Jazz, but even in that game, he was spotted on the sidelines jawing with teammates Jalen Green in crunch time while leading.
His minutes are scaling back, a terrible sign for a rookie, and his effective field-goal percentage sits at the bottom of the NBA, according to Cleaning The Glass.
His college stats suggest he’s better than this. But for now, take advantage.
The play: Smith Jr. under points and three-point props
FUTURES
Most Valuable Player & Defensive Player of the Year
Yes, yes, it’s rather early to be having MVP conversations 10 games into the season, but Giannis Antetokounmpo deserves to be mentioned.
On FanDuel, he’s currently listed as the MVP and DPOY betting favourite (+230 and +290) after sitting in the chase pack for both awards ahead of opening night.
But with the Bucks owning the league’s best record and the No. 1, defence all while Khris Middleton recovers from wrist surgery, the Greek Freak has earned his praise.
If we fast-tracked to the summer and he somehow takes home both awards, he’ll be the first to ever win it twice simultaneously. Hakeem Olajuwon and Michael Jordan are the only two players to ever achieve the feat, and they both did it once.
Most Improved Player
This award often has the widest range of candidates, but in the last week, a few notable players have seen their number shrink.
Lauri Markkanen at +600 floated as the favourite for a few days. His number has been gradually shortening based on consistent performances, night after night.
Bettors went scrambling to find Tyrese Maxey MIP odds the moment James Harden’s injury was announced. His number is at +440 after floating above +1000 for most of the season.
Canadian Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is now atop the board at +350 after putting up one superstar performance after another. He’s averaging 30.8 ppg, more than six points better than last season.
He’s ranked seventh in the league, floating around names like Kevin Durant, Damian Lillard and reigning MIP winner Ja Morant.
Sixth Man of the Year
Out of left field, Russell Westbrook has gained the most steam in any of the future markets sitting at +160 as the favourite for 6MOY.
After converting to a bench role, Westbrook is shooting 51.3 per cent from the field in six games after opening 28.9 per cent in three as a starter.
Less than a week ago, he was sitting at +3600.
What a turnaround that narrative has been.