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Parity was the story coming into this NBA season – there wasn’t a consensus championship favourite across the sportsbooks.

Now that we’re four weeks in, the bottom feeders are slowly accumulating the losses and the top of both conferences are slowly taking shape. 

In the East, it’s as expected; Milwaukee and Boston were known commodities and have proven they’re championship threats. 

In the West, expected title contenders Denver are tied for the top seed, but Portland and Utah also being up there muddies the waters. 

It’s been a story of underdogs so far this season, and last week only reinforced that narrative.

TEAMS / LEAGUE

Underdogs Keep on Trucking

Last week I spotlighted the 12 teams that were projected to finish under .500 according to their win totals on FanDuel. 

They had a 69-55-3 record against the spread at the time. 

In the past seven days, they went 20-10-2 - a 66.7 win percentage. 

The oddsmakers will eventually even this out, but until then, underdogs have been the correct lean.

The only three projected lottery teams that are negative ATS are Charlotte, New York, and Detroit. 

The play: Favour the underdogs, both ATS and on the ML 

Home / Away Splits

For the past three NBA seasons, the pandemic had a major influence on homecourt advantage, particularly in the bubble. 

Now that arenas operate essentially at pre-pandemic levels, there’s a return to normalcy. 

The following list shows how many teams finished the regular season with a better road record versus at home. 

Since the pandemic: 

2021-22 – five teams

2020-21 – six teams

2019-20 – five teams

Prior to the pandemic: 

2018-19 – two teams

2017-18 – two teams

2016-17 – zero teams

Over the first month, only four NBA teams are performing better on the road this year (Portland, LA Clippers, San Antonio, and Charlotte).

There are many factors you can hypothesize over regarding homecourt advantage – referees favouring the home team, free throws being tougher on the road, or the crowd energy influencing momentum. 

Whatever it is, home teams are outperforming oddsmakers’ expectations this season versus the previous three. 

Since the pandemic began, the home teams finished with a negative point differential versus the spread all three seasons (-0.22, -0.32, -0.52). 

So far this year, home teams are performing 1.04 points better versus the spread. 

The play: Home teams are slightly undervalued compared to pandemic spreads

Kyrie Out Equals Good?

Several superstar players have missed time this season, such as Giannis Antetokounmpo, Joel Embiid, or Damian Lillard. 

When these No. 1 options go down, it’s natural to assume their teams’ ATS track record takes a tumble.  

Milwaukee, Philadelphia, and Portland all perform equal or worse ATS without their star player. 

Toronto, as another example, has gone .500 ATS in games without Fred VanVleet or Pascal Siakam out. 

The one exception so far this year is Kyrie Irving. The Nets have thrived since his suspension began and Head Coach Steve Nash was let go. They’ve gone 5-1 ATS versus 1-7 in the eight games Irving was active. 

This is not a knock on Irving, who’s one of the most talented guards ever, but Brooklyn’s momentum should be spotlighted particularly ATS. 

Kevin Durant is playing at an MVP level, and multiple key role players have returned from injuries over this period. 

Their 1-5 start is fading away from memory. 

The play: Bet on Brooklyn ATS before public perception flips

PLAYER PROPS

Joel Embiid

Consider the buy-low window closed after Embiid went off for a 59-point double-double. 

We knew there’d be an opportunity when James Harden’s injury was announced, but now it’ll depend on how aggressively the oddsmakers adjust his props for the week. 

With no games for Philly until Friday, maybe bettors will forget to check back, but he’s been night and day since returning from an illness.

In six games with Harden: 

- 27.2 ppg, 9.5 rpg, 3.3 apg, 1.2 bpg, 34.5 usage rate

In four games without: 

- 40.0 ppg, 11.0 rpg, 5.3 apg, 2.8 bpg, 42.7 usage rate

He’s hitting a whopping 79.3 per cent of his shots at the rim with above-average efficiency from all zones inside the three-point line. 

While regression goes both ways, it’s also worth noting he’s gone 23.7 per cent from deep after shooting above 37 per cent the last two seasons. 

We’ll see if four days of rest helps or hurts his production come Friday. 

The play: Embiid over points and player combos

Anthony Edwards

Averaged out over the course of their first 14 games, Ant-Man is playing fine, with his stats nearly identical to last season. 

From a betting perspective, he’s been an under-candidate due to the public’s Most Improved Player expectations.

At the start of the month, he was listed at +1100 and tied for the second shortest odds for that award. Today he’s +6500 and arguably out of the picture. 

Over the last seven days, he’s played four games averaging 16.3 ppg on 13.8 field-goal attempts per game, a steep drop from his 17.3 last year or his 18.8 over the first 10 games. 

His opening night point prop was set at 23.5. 

With the T-Wolves underperforming at 6-8, the concerns over offensive fit are legitimate. 

This was the No. 1 rated offence Post All-Star Break last season. 

So far this year, Minnesota is 18th. 

Add in the fact Edwards only averaged 4.5 three-point attempts last week after shooting 8.4 last year, a window exists to catch his unders. 

The play: Edwards under point and three-point props

O.G. Anunoby

At some point the streak will end, but O.G. is making record-breaking headlines with his defensive production this year. 

He’s had 11 straight games of three or more combined steals and blocks and done so in 12-of-14 games. 

In a preseason interview with Josh Lewenberg, he clarified his desires to make an All-Defensive Team.

At this rate, he’s elevated to Defensive Player of the Year consideration. 

FanDuel currently lists him as the fifth choice for the award at +1400. 

A motivated O.G. is something Raptors’ fans salivate for. 

While backing him in the traditional stats might not always pay off, his defensive production has been as bankable as it gets. No reason to back down now. 

The play: Anunoby over steals and blocks props

FUTURES

Most Valuable Player 

At the moment, the league’s top award is a two-horse race. 

The Greek Freak versus Luka Magic. 

Both of them sit atop the list on merit. Very little narrative factors into their cases. 

Doncic leads the lead in scoring. Antetokounmpo has the Bucks first in the NBA at 10-2.

But as Jayson Tatum’s Celtics look to extend their six-game win streak or players like Embiid drop the occasional 50-burger, the stars in the chase pack will build media momentum. 

As the MVP award goes every season, rarely does a player open and finish the season in the pole position. 

Certain narratives get louder and all favourites are always one injury away from dropping out of contention. 

Canadian Bennedict Mathurin Earning Recognition

Speaking of injuries, Rookie of the Year is a market that is unlikely to shuffle without one. 

Paolo Banchero sitting at -650 is pretty dramatic relative to past seasons. Look no further than darkhorse Scottie Barnes who catapulted into the lead Post All-Star Break to steal the award from Evan Mobley at the eleventh hour.

The note I want to spotlight is how Canadian Bennedict Mathurin has leapt into a tier of his own over the first month. He sits at +500 for the award. 

The next two choices are Jaden Ivey and Keegan Murray at +5500 and +6500 respectively. That’s ten times the probability of Mathurin winning the award. 

He’s scoring a full four points per game more than Ivey and has room to grow with the Pacers on tank watch. 

Mathurin is also the only Top-6 draftee not on his team’s starting unit and has rightfully earned Sixth Man of the Year consideration. 

He’s the third option at +1000.

Defensive Player of the Year

I mentioned him above, but I have to gas up Anunoby one more time. 

At the beginning of this month, he was listed at +12000 to win DPOY. A pretty dramatic climb into contention. 

In past articles, I spotlighted Antetokounmpo and Mobley as top contenders based on their team’s defensive ratings. 

Mobley has slid up the ranks to +700 after opening the season at +2400 and The Greek Freak is the favourite at +290. 

If Anunoby keeps this streak going, he’ll be impossible to ignore based on individual merit. But he’ll only be a legitimate threat if the Raptors can elevate from 14th in defensive rating to Top 5.