Columnist image

| Archive

This NBA season has been full of outlier performances and surprising streaks.
 
The defending champions, Golden State Warriors, were a sub-.500 team for most of the season up until a week ago.
 
The Los Angeles Lakers opened with two five-game losing streaks and seemed destined to blow it up.
 
Lauri Markkanen and his Utah Jazz teammates proved that tanking is a front-office objective. Players couldn’t care less about Victor Wembanyama.
 
As we fall into this stretch where NBA opening night is far in the rearview mirror and All-Star Weekend is still well away, this is often where the cream settles to the top and the deadweight teams sink to the bottom.
 
Here are some key situations and players to monitor for December.
 
LEAGUE WIDE NOTES

Stars Back From Injury

Paul George, Kawhi Leonard, and James Harden all played their first games back from prolonged absences Monday night.

Khris Middleton and Jimmy Butler played their second games back from injury.

How long will it take these players to ramp up?

This is an opportunity for bettors to potentially exploit.

Paying attention to press conferences from their respective teams, most of these players will be on some form of minutes restriction.

Considering their style of play, you can cherry-pick which players might have more rust to shake off than others.

Using Middleton, for example, it’s not shocking he went 1-for-11 last night. His game is so jump shot dependent. If he’s just a tad off, he’s susceptible to droughts like Monday.

Head Coach Doc Rivers confirmed Harden would be on a minutes restriction ahead of last night, but in a game that went to double overtime, he somehow logged 38 minutes. Even so, he finished 4-for-19 from the field.

If it wasn’t for the game-winning shot, Leonard would’ve gone under his point prop of 14.5 for the sixth time in a row this season.

All players, including superstars, need time to shake off the rust.

The play: Take the under on stars returning from injury with inflated lines
 
Outlier Home/Away Performances ATS
 
On the subject of outliers, there have been some extreme home and away splits that deserve your attention. The three teams below have a positive or negative record against the spread in excess of 75 per cent.
 
Home Record
Cleveland 9-1-1
 
Away Record
Memphis 3-9-1
Golden State 2-10
 
On the season, the Cavs are the fifth-best team ATS but they are particularly bankable at home.
 
They have a +12.3 net rating at home versus +1.3 on the road.
 
If you bet $10 on them every home game ATS this season at -110, you’d be up $70.
 
Cleveland continues to be an underrated title contender, particularly one that’s elite at home.
 
On the opposite end, Memphis can’t seem to replicate their success on the road. You often hear former players say, “veteran teams know how to win on the road”.
 
The Grizzlies are the fifth-youngest team in the league.
 
They have a 13.6 net differential at home versus away.
 
Offensively they don’t have much of a drop-off, but their defence completely collapses on the road. Memphis has a 106.4 defensive rating at home which would rank first in the NBA. On the road, it drops to 115.8, good for third-worst league-wide.
 
But of all teams in the NBA, no team is more polarizing than the Golden State Warriors.
 
Their 17.9 net differential at home versus the road is by far No. 1.
 
For the longest time, it’s a known fact that the Splash Bros love to put on a show at Chase Center. But this season, the road drop-off is worse than normal.
 
Their defensive rating drops to 119.7 on the road which would rank dead last.
 
They’ve been favourites in seven of their 12 away games yet went 2-10 straight up.
 
James Wiseman received a ton of blame for their woes early in the season but after his relegation to the G-League, the Warriors actually got worse on the road, with an 18.9 net rating differential.
 
For now, just assume the Warriors don’t show up to defend on the road.
 
The play: Bet the opposing team totals for MEM and GSW away games
 
PLAYER PROPS
 
Nikola Jokic
 
Coming off back-to-back MVP seasons, Jokic’s point prop was set at 26.5 on opening night.
 
While he covered the first game, he went under that mark in nine of the next 10 games.
 
With Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. back in the fold, Jokic being the selfless player that he is, has gone out of his way to involve them in the offence.
 
His 13.7 field-goal attempts per game this season would be his lowest in five years.
 
But since returning from health and safety protocols, Jokic seems to have flipped a switch.
 
His usage rate has upped from 25.4 to 28.5, shooting 68.3 per cent from the field over his last seven games.
 
He went from 20.8 ppg to 27.7 ppg before and after his bout with COVID.
 
It’s hard to fathom, but Jokic has somehow improved on his two MVP seasons and is shooting a career-high effective field-goal percentage, 66.4.
 
The play: Jokic over point props
 
Deandre Ayton

Another player who opened the year as a buy-low, Ayton has seemingly put his tumultuous offseason behind him.

Phoenix came into the season with a lot of negative juju and their reluctance to extend him a max contract extension played a big part.

The 2018 first overall pick logged 32.5 mpg last season but saw that number crater to 25.8 over the first 10 games of the season.

He was averaging 15.3 ppg and 7.8 rpg, considerably lower numbers than last year.

But since Chris Paul went down with his heel injury, Ayton has seen both his minutes and usage increase.

Over the last two weeks, he’s had six 20+ point performances after logging just two through the first 14 games.

Will his performance regress once CP3 returns?

I don’t think anyone knows for certain. But until that comes, expect Ayton to maintain his efficiency.

His point prop was 16.5 last night. He’s averaging 21.4 ppg over his last eight games.
 
The play: Ayton over point props
 
Star Wings Versus Toronto

O.G. Anunoby is having a career-year defensively, and one way to capitalize on his success is to fade his opponents.

Combining his individual performance with Coach Nick Nurse’s schemes, Toronto has held his defensive assignments in check.

Anunoby guarded Jaylen Brown last night who went under his 25.5 point prop.

He recently went up against Kevin Durant twice, Luka Doncic, and Donovan Mitchell (all MVP candidates). They collectively went under their point props in all four games.

Zion Williamson is the only star of late to have Anunoby’s number, and if you watched that game, you’d understand how his strength and speed combo was unstoppable.
 
Opposing stars have gone over their point prop in just one of their last eight games versus OG.
 
Anunoby has garnered league-wide Defensive Player of the Year buzz for a reason.

The play: Under point props on opposing wings versus Toronto
 
FUTURES

We Got a New Leader

Jayson Tatum is proving to be matchup proof and his odds at FanDuel reflect that – he’s a +280 favourite to win MVP.
 
On top of Boston owning a historically efficient offence, Tatum is individually playing the best two-way basketball of his career.
 
His 30.8 ppg is a career-high and his 56.2 effective field-goal percentage is well above his career baseline.
 
With the Celtics owning the league’s best record and projected to finish with the most wins according to FiveThirtyEight, Tatum has ‘the best player on the best team’ argument locked.
 
It also helps that his two main competitors are hitting a bit of a speed bump.
 
After floating above 35 ppg for a long portion of the season, Doncic has come down to earth (slightly). The main knock on his case is Dallas’ record; they sit one game above .500.
 
He’s priced just behind Tatum at +310, good for third on the list.
 
Giannis Antetokounmpo sits just 10 cents off Tatum’s price, at +290. After a blazing hot start going 9-0, the Bucks have faltered a bit and The Greek Freak deserves some of the blame.
 
While he remains a leading contender for DPOY, his offensive efficiency has taken a step back. His effective field-goal percentage is on pace to be his worse in five seasons.
 
The glaring knock on his case has been his shooting yips at the free-throw line and from deep.
 
His free-throw percentage sits at 62 percent, among the very worst in the league.
 
He’s down to 23.8 percent from three even though he takes 3.3 attempts a game.