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If you look at the top three teams in each conference, it’s becoming rather clear, the youth movement is here in the NBA. 

Boston, Milwaukee and Cleveland have stood over the East for a while now but in the West, three relatively new teams are leading the way – New Orleans, Memphis and Denver. 

All six teams are led by a superstar aged 28 or younger. 

New Orleans and Memphis are both led by the top picks from the 2019 draft.

This isn’t to say it’s time to discard LeBron James, Kevin Durant, and Stephen Curry, but when it comes to the regular season, certain players have more to prove than others. 

The Grizzlies made a splash going from the ninth seed to the second seed a year ago, playing a relentless, high-paced brand of basketball. 

The Pelicans and Cavaliers are bringing a similar intensity to start the year. 

It’s not surprising that all these teams are succeeding against the spread.

Good teams win, great teams cover.   

LEAGUE-WIDE NOTES

Addition By Subtraction?

In most cases, the void left by an injured superstar leaves their team worse off. 

But in recent memory, we’ve had some unusual counter examples. 

Last year, during Ja Morant’s Most Improved Player run, the Memphis Grizzlies went 20-5 in the games without him in the lineup (80 percent win rate). In the games he played, they won 63 per cent of their games.

Prior to Kyrie Irving’s suspension this year, the Brooklyn Nets were off to a putrid 2-6 start. Then he misses the following eight games, and the team goes 5-3. 

Sometimes, the absence of a ball-dominant player opens the door for other role players and stars to step up. 

The latest example is Brandon Ingram missing his last seven games. The Pelicans have gone a perfect 7-0 since. 

New Orleans is one of the deeper teams in the NBA, but Ingram’s injury has specifically created space for Zion Williamson to thrive. The following is his game logs:

With Ingram: 22.4 ppg, 6.3 rpg, 3.7 apg, 57.5 FG%
Without Ingram: 30.0 ppg, 9.1 rpg, 5.3 apg, 67 FG%

By no means is New Orleans a better team without Ingram but from both a short and long-term lens, this has been a blessing in disguise. 

Williamson represents the ceiling for this team and needs time to develop. 

While acting as the focal point of their offence, the Pelicans’ defensive rating has also improved to 105.0. 

As a result, they are the only NBA team to rank Top-5 in both offensive and defensive rating for the season. 

The play: Williamson over on player combos and New Orleans ATS

Toronto, We Need A Break

As Canadians, in an ideal world, it’d be satisfying to bet on the Raptors every game with success.

In reality, Toronto is going through an incredibly turbulent stretch. 

Over the last two weeks, the Raptors have been dead last in point differential versus the spread. They sit at -9.1 with a 2-5 record straight up, according to Cleaning The Glass. 

In their two covers, they won by 1.5 and 0.5, respectively. Their worst loss over this stretch was by 20.5 points. 

What are the key concerns? 

Toronto is currently dead last in points scored per 100 possessions in halfcourt sets.
They’re second-last in effective field-goal percentage and 26th in three-point percentage. 

While the team has succeeded in generating turnovers and crashing the glass, those positives only mask underlying scoring woes that need fixing as soon as possible. 

On the positive side, Toronto’s offence has had great stretches. Over the first nine games, before Pascal Siakam got injured, the Raps ranked fourth in offensive rating. 

Since then, they’ve been 25th. 

The more daunting concern for Toronto is its upcoming schedule. 

Their next 13 opponents all have a .500 record or better. 

Maybe the oddsmakers will adjust the spreads accordingly, but purely on wins and losses, it could be a make-or-break stretch for the team. 

The play: Fade or stay away from betting the Raps 

PLAYER PROPS

SGA is Here To Stay

Death. Taxes. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scoring 30-plus points. 

The Canadian phenom has demonstrated his success is sustainable; he’s here to stay. 

Gaining national media attention, SGA rightfully sits atop the Most Improved Player board on FanDuel at -140. 

He sits only behind Joel Embiid and Luka Doncic in scoring at 31.2 ppg. 

In 25 games this year, he’s cracked the 30-point barrier 18 times. Doncic is the only player to achieve the same feat. 

On opening night, his point prop was set at 22.5. Oddsmakers clearly didn’t know he was in line for this type of season. 

While the value has slowly faded on him going for 30-plus, he was still set at 29.5 ahead of his matchup versus Doncic last night. 

Cracking the 30-point barrier at a 72 percent success rate, don’t be shy about banking on the Canadian until the price becomes too expensive.

The play: SGA over 29.5 points 

De’Aaron Fox Dipping

The leader of this surprising Kings squad, Fox has been out of the lineup for the past two games with right foot soreness. 

Head Coach Mike Brown has indicated this is a day-to-day injury so he likely will return this week. 

When he does, there could be an opportunity to take his unders. 

At the end of Sacramento’s seven-game win streak, Fox was posting up some elite numbers, albeit slightly unsustainable. 

In 15 games, he averaged 25.9 ppg and 6.4 apg, on 55.5 per cent shooting and 84.4 per cent from the line. 

Incredible production but somewhat suspicious given his career rates of 46.5 and 73.1 per cent. 

Since the win streak ended, Fox has failed to score more than 20 points in seven straight games. 

His scoring is down by 9.8 ppg and his minutes are down by 2.3 a game. He’s dropped to 38.2 per cent from the field over this period.

By season’s end, his production will fall somewhere in the middle. But if his point props remain in the mid-20s, he’s worth targeting until he sorts out his shooting woes. 

The play: Fox under point and three-point props 

FUTURES

Player Three Has Entered The Game

There have not been any seismic shifts in the player awards markets this past week but it’s worth noting two names who’ve quietly surfaced to the top. 

For Defensive Player of the Year, one of Brook Lopez or Giannis Antetokounmpo have sat atop the board for essentially the whole season. 

But after a quicker recovery from injury than expected, Jaren Jackson Jr. has emerged, currently priced at +1000 on FanDuel. 

Over 11 games since his return, he’s anchored Memphis to a Top-3 defensive rating. 

He’s already Top-10 in total blocks this season even though he’s missed 16 games. 

For Sixth Man of the Year, it’s been a fight between Russell Westbrook, Jordan Poole and Christian Wood over the past month. 

But lurking in the shadows, Malcolm Brogdon has seen his price shorten to +420. 

Boston’s sixth man hasn’t erupted unexpectedly at any point this month. He’s been steadily putting up similar numbers all season. 

His price on FanDuel is shortening as bettors acknowledge his impact on this potentially historic Celtics offence. 

Brogdon gives them a reliable scoring punch off the bench, buying Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown much deserved rest. Of all candidates, his case is most predicated on team success. 

Should Boston finish with the league’s top record, chances are he’ll be a finalist for this award.