The NFC South lead will be on the line on Sunday Night Football on TSN, as the 5-2 New Orleans Saints visit the 6-2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

New Orleans enters play riding a four-game winning streak, while Tampa Bay has reeled off three straight wins and has lost just once since Week 1 in the Big Easy.

The Buccaneers opened up as a 4.5-point favorite and that’s where the line currently stands at most spots.

New Orleans Saints vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Line: Buccaneers -4.5

Total: 50.5

Reinforcements on the Way

This game will mark the return of the NFL’s reigning receiving king as Michael Thomas will suit up for the Saints for the first time since Week 1 versus these same Bucs.

He’s missed the last six games due to a high ankle sprain, forcing New Orleans to put even more of the offensive workload on Alvin Kamara’s shoulders.

Kamara hasn’t disappointed, racking up at least 100 all-purpose yards in each of his past six games, and is now in position to challenge for the most receptions and receiving yards ever in a single season by a running back.

Still, Thomas’ return couldn’t come at a better time. Tampa Bay boasts the number one defence by DVOA, and has held six of its past seven opponents to 23 points or less.

Also working in Drew Brees and offence’s favor is the likely return of Emmanuel Sanders. The Saints key offseason acquisition missed games in both Week 7 and 8 due to a positive COVID test.

Brady Turning Back the Clock

On the other side of the ball, Tom Brady must be licking his chops for a shot at redemption versus New Orleans. In his Bucs debut back in Week 1, Brady was picked off twice, sacked three times and posted his lowest quarterback rating of the season in an 11-point loss.

However, since Week 2 few have played the QB position better. He has a 17-1 TD-to-INT rate over his past six games, and his offence is about to get a lot more dangerous with the addition of Antonio Brown, and the return of Chris Godwin.

AB will make his 2019 debut on Sunday night and has reportedly been staying at Brady’s house, as if their chemistry needed any help. In their lone appearance together in 2019, Brady hit Brown four times for 56 yards and a score.

The 43-year-old now has an embarrassment of riches at his disposal that includes Brown, Godwin and Mike Evans in three receiver sets, plus a rejuvenated Rob Gronkowski at tight end. Good luck slowing down this train once it starts rolling.

Saints Defence in Trouble

Brady’s plethora of weapons must be extremely worrisome for the struggling Saints defence. New Orleans has the ninth lowest coverage grade at Pro Football Focus, and has surrendered the second most passing touchdowns in the league.

They’re allowing the fifth highest quarterback rating and their number one corner Marshon Lattimore is allowing over 72% of the passes thrown in his direction to be completed.

As if the Buccaneers’ outlook wasn’t favorable enough, the Saints will be missing run stuff defensive tackle Sheldon Rankins due to a knee sprain, improving the matchup for Tampa Bay’s ground game.

Back the Buccaneers

Despite being 5-2, New Orleans has just a +9 point differential, which is worse than every team in the NFC West, and lower than every other 5-win squad with the exception of Cleveland and Chicago.

Yes, the Saints have won four straight, but each of those victories have been come from behind wins. Falling behind Tampa Bay is a recipe for disaster, just ask Aaron Rodgers and the Packers.

Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -4.5

Upon Further Review

Rob Gronkowski has hit pay dirt in three straight games, and is among the league leaders at his position in routes run over the past four games.

Now he catches the Saints who’ve struggled defending tight ends all season. They’ve allowed the NFL’s fifth most production to the position in 2020, and only Travis Kelce, George Kittle and Robert Tonyan have had more success among tight ends than Gronk since Week 3.

He’s an excellent bet to find the end zone again in this matchup.