Super Bowl 56 is finally here.

It may not be the matchup that most people expected, but a showdown between the Los Angeles Rams and Cincinnati Bengals in L.A. is chock full of compelling storylines.

The Rams opened as a 3.5-point favourite, and that line has since moved a full point in their favour.

Los Angeles Rams at Cincinnati Bengals

Line: Rams -4.5

Total: 48.5

The most interesting aspect of the line move for Super Bowl 56 is that it moved in L.A.’s direction despite the majority of the handle (56 per cent) and the number of bets (63 per cent) being on the Bengals as of Thursday.

Historically, being favoured by 4.5 points in the Super Bowl has been a recipe for disaster.

There have been three teams favoured by exactly 4.5 points in the Super Bowl over the past 56 years. In each of those three instances, the favourite lost outright.

As for the total, it’s come down 1.5 points from 50 to 48.5 since it opened, and there’s an argument to be made that number is still too high – more on that later.

Bengals betting analysis

Almost every conversation surrounding the Bengals this week starts with quarterback Joe Burrow.

He’s been phenomenal all season, and boasts remarkable chemistry with rookie phenom, and No. 1 receiver, Ja’Marr Chase.

 

Most weeks, it’s his arm that does all the talking, but some of the most critical plays of the AFC Championship Game against Kansas City were made by his legs.

The Chiefs appeared to have Burrow bottled up in the backfield numerous times in the second half, only to see him turn a sure sack into a first down.

 

His elusiveness will be tested early and often against the Rams, who boast the strongest defence the Bengals have faced all season.

L.A. finished the season ranked fifth on defence per DVOA and boast Pro Football Focus’ highest graded pass rush.

Cincinnati, in large part due to Burrow’s legs, gave up only one sack against K.C., but we saw how vulnerable their offensive line can be versus Tennessee.

It graded out as the second-worst protection unit among the 14 playoff teams and coughed up nine sacks to the Titans in the Divisional Round.

The Rams’ pass rush, consisting of Aaron Donald, Von Miller and Leonard Floyd, is truly elite, and has the talent to make Burrow’s life miserable.

 

L.A. held Arizona to 11 points in the Wild Card Round and kept Tom Brady and the defending champs in check until the final three minutes in the Divisional Round.

Against San Francisco in the NFC Championship, they neutralized the vaunted 49ers rushing attack, holding San Fran to only 282 total yards.

If Burrow and the Bengals are going to find success against this menacing defence, it’s likely going to come over the middle of the field.

The Rams’ safeties and linebackers don’t grade out particularly well in coverage, opening up big opportunities for Cincy skill position players to rack up yards after the catch.

Rams betting analysis

On the other side of the ball, patience is going to be the name of the game for Matthew Stafford and company in front of the hometown crowd.

The Bengals gave Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs fits in the second half of the AFC Championship Game by dropping eight players back in coverage on nearly half of their defensive snaps, and a similar strategy is likely against the Rams.

Nobody on planet earth can lock up Cooper Kupp one-on-one, while Odell Beckham Jr. hasn’t looked this explosive since he was a rookie.

 

If that strategy is deployed, L.A. would be wise to ramp up its run game. Cincinnati allowed the 12th-most yards per rushing attempt this season and will likely dare the Rams to beat them on the ground.

If L.A. can find success with Cam Akers or Sony Michael, they can truly unleash their play-action passing attack.

Stafford completed 70 per cent of his play-action passes this season, averaging 9.6 yards per attempt, while throwing 10 TDs.

Turnovers are always an issue with Stafford, as evident by his seven interceptions over the final three regular-season games.

Cincinnati’s defence wasn’t known for causing a lot of turnovers in the regular season, but they’ve flipped the switch in the playoffs.

 

They forced two K.C. turnovers in the AFC Championship, and three more versus the Titans in the Divisional Round.

The prediction

As mentioned earlier, the total for this game is on the way down for good reason.

All three of Cincinnati’s playoff games have fallen short of the number, while two of the Rams postseason tilts have gone under as well.

The under has hit in three straight Super Bowls, and points are going to be tough to come by for both teams.

As good as the Bengals’ offence was down the stretch, they didn’t produce at nearly the same rate versus elite defences.

In four games versus top-12 defences per DVOA, Burrow and the Bengals averaged just 18.5 points.

I’ll take the under in this one.

Pick: Under 48.5