Oct 28, 2021
Thursday Night Football Preview: Packers big underdogs in Arizona
Kyler Murray and the 7-0 Arizona Cardinals host Aaron Rodgers and his 6-1 Green Bay Packers squad. Green Bay will be without Davante Adams due to COVID protocols, but the star wideout has missed his fair share of time over the last two seasons and Green Bay’s results without him might surprise you.
TSN.ca Staff
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Week 8 of the NFL Season has arrived – where has the time gone?
Last week D’Ernest Johnson made a name for himself on Thursday night, rushing for 146 yards and a touchdown to help Cleveland take down Denver and cover the small two-point spread.
Some weeks I look at the calendar and grimace at the sight of the Thursday night matchup, but not this week.
We have an absolute barn burner tonight.
Kyler Murray and the 7-0 Arizona Cardinals host Aaron Rodgers and his 6-1 Green Bay Packers squad.
Murray, after opening the season at +2000 to win league MVP, has put himself right near the top of MVP boards and enters this week with the second-shortest odds at +450 to win the award.
Meanwhile, after getting blown out in Week 1, Rodgers has this Packers team looking like a powerhouse once again and enter Week 8 as winners of seven straight.
Green Bay will be without Davante Adams due to COVID protocols, but the star wideout has missed his fair share of time over the last two seasons and Green Bay’s results without him might surprise you.
Green Bay Packers at Arizona Cardinals
Line: Cardinals -6.5
Total: 50.5
Green Bay
After getting blown out in Week 1, a lot of people wanted to write off Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers.
Seven weeks later and they enter Week 8 with the sixth-shortest odds to win the Super Bowl and have outscored their opponents 165-108 since their only loss of the season.
A large reason for their success has been the connection between Rodgers and his star wide receiver Davante Adams.
Adams leads the team with his 73 targets (45 more than any other player on the team), 52 catches and 744 yards.
The dynamic duo have been one of the better partnerships this league has seen in recent years; however, the wide out is likely to miss the game Thursday night after being placed on the COVID list earlier in the week.
Adams has missed six games since 2019, and Rodgers has found a way to get things done without him.
Last season the star wideout missed two games, and Rodgers completed 73.85 per cent of his passes, while throwing for 610 yards with a 7-0 touchdown to interception ratio.
The Packers went 2-0 in those games with a 37-30 win in New Orleans and a 14-point win at home over the Atlanta Falcons.
In 2019, Adams was out of the lineup from Week 5 to Week 8 and Green Bay went 4-0 in his absence with Rodgers throwing for 313.8 yards per game with 10 touchdowns.
Rodgers enters the game with an over / under of 254.5 passing yards. I will be taking that over.
Arizona
The Arizona Cardinals are the final undefeated team standing. Raise your hand if you saw that coming.
Third-year quarterback Kyler Murray leads the league with his 73.5 completion percentage and is among the league leaders with his 17 touchdowns passes.
Known for his dual-threat ability, Murray’s rushing yards are at an all-time low this season, averaging just 18 yards per game on the ground, a steep decline from the 34.0 he posted as a rookie and the 51.2 he averaged last season.
That being said, QBs have had their fair share of success running the ball against the Packers defence.
Over the last two weeks, opposing quarterbacks have run for season-high rushing totals against the Packers defence (Justin Fields: six for 43, Taylor Heinicke: 10 for 95).
Murray enters Thursday night with an over / under of 27.5 rushing yards.
Seven of Murray’s touchdowns have gone to DeAndre Hopkins, who leads the team in all receiving categories.
In 23 games since being acquired by the Cardinals, Hopkins has 13 touchdowns and has averaged 79.4 yards per game.
He enters Thursday night -115 to score a touchdown and has an over / under of 64.5 receiving yards.
The Cardinals are absolutely loaded with weapons and if you’re looking for some better value at players to find the endzone there are some interesting names as you scroll down the list.
Christian Kirk is second on the team with his four touchdown receptions and is +230 to score.
AJ Green has enjoyed some success during his time in Arizona. After catching just two touchdowns last season in Cincinnati, the veteran wideout has racked up three touchdowns with 406 yards and 24 receptions in seven games, and enters this game at +180 to find the end zone.
Last but not least, newly acquired tight end Zach Ertz hit the ground running with Arizona last week, hauling in three of his five targets for 66 yards and a touchdown and is +210 to score Thursday night.
THE LINE
Arizona opened as a three-and-a-half point favourite, but the news of Davante Adams being placed on the COVID list saw that number skyrocket.
The line isn’t the only number on the move as the 50.5 total is a full three points lower than what it opened at.
Both teams enter this game 6-1 against the spread this season.
Since hiring head coach Matt LaFleur, Green Bay is 28-15 ATS and have covered six of the nine games they have been underdogs on the road.
Meanwhile, the Cardinals are 22-15-2 ATS since Murray took over as the starting quarterback in 2019.
But they have covered just four of the 10 times they have been favourites at home.
By now you can probably tell which way I lean on this game.
Six points is just too many to lay in this spot, so I’m taking Packers +6.5 and might sprinkle moneyline at +220.
Picks: Packers +6.5, Aaron Rodgers over 254.5 passing yards, Kyler Murray over 27.5 rushing yards.