These final weeks are crucial in laying out the College Football Playoff and Conference title picture, and the biggest game on this slate has major implications for both. 
 
The now No.4 ranked TCU Horned Frogs take on the No.18 Texas Longhorns, and this is basically an elimination game for both TEAMS in different aspects. 
 
If TCU loses, their playoffs are pretty much done, and the same goes for Texas regarding the Big 12 Championship game. 
 
Despite being 14 spots higher in the rankings, Texas is -7 in this game. It will be interesting to see how this plays out Saturday!  
  
As well, in the AAC, we will see a matchup of two ranked teams. No. 22 UCF travels to New Orleans to take on the surprising 19th-ranked Tulane Green Wave. 
 
These two teams are both having great seasons, and Tulane is a slight favourite at -1.5. It will be fascinating to see how this unfolds on Saturday afternoon. 
 
Here are my best bets for this week’s games. 

Fresno State Bulldogs @ UNLV Rebels 

Spread: Fresno State -9.5 

Total:  60.5 
 
This Fresno State is a completely different team with Jake Haener at quarterback.  
 
The Bulldogs lost Haener to injury in Week 3, and their offensive output completely went off the deep end.  
 
In games Haener has completed this season, Fresno has scored 38.5 ppg compared to 21.8 in games in which he didn’t start or finish. 
 
UNLV did have a solid start to the season but has lost four straight games and gave up 40-plus points in three of those losses.  
 
They also had very little offensive production over that stretch, scoring more than 10 points just once in October.  
 
Fresno State, despite the games missed by Haener, is still in the driver’s seat for the Mountain West Conference title game and will look to keep the momentum with their star QB back under center.  
 
This is my best bet of the week. Start your weekend off right with a nice Friday night cover! 
 
The Pick:  Fresno State -9.5 

No. 22 UCF Knights at No. 17 Tulane Green Wave 

Spread: Tulane -1.5

Total: 54.5 
 
While Willie Fritz has done a decent job at Tulane over the past few years, this year is different! 
 
The Green Wave has not been ranked in November since 1998, when they had future NFLer Shaun King at quarterback. 
 
This is the biggest game Tulane has had in 20-plus years, and the people of New Orleans will get behind that momentum on Saturday. 
 
UCF is led by a couple of familiar names in former Auburn Coach Gus Malzahn and Mississippi transfer QB John Rhys Plumlee. 
 
They are a good team as well, and as the spread indicates, the oddsmakers expect this to be a close game. 
 
I think this means more to a Tulane team that has not had some of the highs that the UCF program has had over the years.  
 
On top of that, the Green Wave plays very good defence and rarely turns the ball over, which are two recipes for winning a big game. 
 
I wish I could be in New Orleans this weekend, but I’m rolling with Alumni’s JP Losman, Shaun King and Matt Forte in spirit and riding the wave on Saturday!  
 
The Pick:  Tulane -1.5 

Army Black Knights at Troy Trojans 

Spread: Troy -9

Total: 46 
 
After losing two of their first three games, Troy has quietly won 5 straight and, with the injury to Coastal Carolina QB Grayson McCall this week, are now the favourites to win the Sun Belt. 
 
Since an October 1st 34-27 win over Western Kentucky, Troy has not given up 20 points in a game and the most they have scored over that stretch is 27. 
 
On top of that, Trojans defensive co-ordinator Shiel Wood worked previously at Army and before that at Georgia Tech under Paul Johnson. 
 
What do Paul Johnson and Army have in common? They both run triple options offence, so Wood is very familiar with the offence he is facing and will have his defence ready for this one. 
 
While Army has put up points at times, it has mostly been against weaker competition. 
 
Over the last 5 games, they put up 42 and 48 in wins over FCS Colgate, who is 4th place in the Patriot League and a 3-6 Louisiana-Monroe team. 
 
In contrast, they failed to score over 14 points in losses to Wake Forest, Air Force and Georgia State in that same stretch and all those teams have winning records.  
 
I think Troy is the better team between these two, and if they can avoid giving up a few big plays on the ground, this will be a low-scoring battle. 
 
Going to take a chance on the under here. 
 
The Pick:  Under 46