Recently, while shopping in downtown Toronto, I overhead someone talking on their phone about the men’s FIFA world rankings, where Canada sits, and how high Canada can climb before April’s World Cup draw.

That’s how far the Canadian men’s team has come – from the unseen early rounds of qualifying, to the top of CONCACAF qualification, to positioning in the world rankings.

Let’s break down the team’s ranking, what it means, how high Canada could reach, and how it might affect their spot in the World Cup draw and tournament. 

Before FIFA releases its new world ranking this Thursday, Canada is currently sitting 40th – the highest the men’s team has ever been.

Ranking is determined on a points system that gives a certain value to friendly matches, tournament qualifiers, and major tournament matches, while considering the world rankings of the two competing nations. Simply put, winning a World Cup qualifier against a higher-ranked opponent gives Canada more points. 

Last week in World Cup qualifying, Canada beat No. 70 El Salvador, No. 76 Honduras, and most critically, the 11th-ranked Americas. Several sites that attempt to predict FIFA’s rankings are anticipating Canada will rise this week. 

Looking at the current rankings, Canada is already among countries that regularly compete to qualify for the World Cup or major continental tournaments: Hungary (39), Scotland (38), Turkey (37), Nigeria (36), Australia (35) and Russia (34).

Neither Hungary, Scotland, Turkey nor Russia have played significant international matches in the past two months. Nigeria lost to 30th-ranked Tunisia in the Round of 16 of the African Cup of Nations. Australia continues to disappoint in its Asian World Cup qualifying campaign. It is conceivable that Canada could leapfrog all those nations on Thursday. 

With three games remaining in CONCACAF qualifying, the men’s team sits first in the region with an excellent chance to qualify for its first World Cup in 36 years. Canada is also on a six-match winning streak, and more qualifying wins will translate into a higher ranking, which is important closer to April’s World Cup draw.

The current seeding format for the 32-team tournament places eight teams in four different pots, each separated by world ranking. The highest-ranked teams are placed in Pot 1 with the remaining countries grouped together in the remaining pots.

There are two exceptions. Despite Qatar being ranked 48th, the World Cup host nation is placed in Pot 1. And with the two inter-confederation playoffs taking place in June, the four teams vying for the final two World Cup spots will likely be placed in Pot 4 come April’s draw.

The higher Canada’s world ranking heading into the World Cup draw, the better chance it has of being placed in Pot 3 instead of being placed among the lowest-ranked teams in Pot 4. A place in Pot 3 potentially means Canada could avoid some of the higher-ranked, perennial World Cup powerhouses in the group stage, as well as consider itself in a better competitive position to potentially earn a spot in the Round of 16. 

So many possibilities are open to the Canadian men, and the chance to debate it all is exciting. But the means by which Canada can continue its upward climb in the world rankings remains the same: just keep winning.