Some seasons, the NBA awards feel straightforward. Some years, circumstances are so bizarre we get edge case outcomes.

Seeing Nikola Jokic wrap up 2020-21 as a +3000 MVP winner was a fitting end to a turbulent season.

While arenas will be operating at full capacity and life is slowly creeping back to normalcy, the NBA continues to be as wide open. It feels like the league is in a transition period where previous MVP locks like LeBron James and Steph Curry are opening the door for younger stars to establish themselves as the future of the league.

Fabio and I go over the five main player awards below, splitting the safe picks from the value plays.

MVP Safe Pick - Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks (+650)

The voter fatigue on Giannis has cooled after winning back-to-back MVPs in 2019 and 2020, so expect a fresh assault on the award. Luka Doncic and Steph Curry are everyone's darlings, but will the Warriors or Mavericks win enough games, or their divisions? Kevin Durant and Joel Embiid represent significant competition, but can either play enough games to be in contention? Embiid has never played more than 64 in a season and Durant is going to be carefully deployed to maximize a title push for Nets. An already "unsexy" winner, Nikola Jokic will likely be shunned by the media. By process of elimination, that leaves Antetokounmpo. The Greek Freak and the Bucks will put their stamp on the East once again as reigning NBA champs, and their floor for wins seems like mid-50's. He is a lock to produce his usually gaudy stats (28.1 points, 11.0 rebounds and 5.9 assists in 2020-2021), so his case will be hard to ignore if the Bucks are sitting atop the East. 

- Fabio Lucarini

MVP Value Pick – Nikola Jokic, Denver Nuggets (+1400)

Two years ago, after The Greek Freak won his first MVP award for the 2018-19 season, Antetokounmpo opened the 2019-20 season as the betting favourite to repeat and deservedly won. Playing two minutes less per game, he upped his scoring by two points, averaged an extra rebound per game and most importantly improved Milwaukee’s record by four wins to a prorated 64-18 season. Isn’t it a little strange this year’s reigning MVP has dropped back to an eighth? Jamal Murray’s absence this season limits the upside of the Nuggets but what if the 26-year-old Jokic continues his ascension, improves upon last season’s production, and leads this versatile squad up to a top-2 seed? Empirically, all MVP winners in the last decade brought something to the league no one else could. Jokic is a 1-of-1 in the modern NBA.

- Wesley Cheng

ROY Safe Pick – Cade Cunningham, Detroit Pistons (+260)

Of all the NBA awards, Rookie of the Year traditionally is the most predictable. With the exception of Anthony Bennett and Markelle Fultz (injury), the No. 1 overall pick has finished no worse than third in ROY voting this past decade. Cunningham meets all the traditional criteria to win this award – he’s a capable scorer, has a clear leadership role on offence, and will be given plenty of minutes regardless of his performance. While Jalen Green is neck-and-neck, he’s probably the third option in Houston’s offence. Jerami Grant had a transcendent inaugural season with Detroit, but all the signs point to Cunningham being their top shot creator in crunch-time.

- Wesley Cheng

ROY Value Pick - Jalen Suggs, Orlando Magic (+700) 

Cade Cunningham and Jalen Green are 1A and 1B for this award, but Suggs may be asked to do more in Orlando. He's their unquestioned leader and should lead the Magic in scoring and assists with ultra-high usage. Orlando is deprived of any real other creators on the roster, and Suggs looks poised to contribute from Day 1 with his leadership and athleticism. He's paying significantly more than the other two and has arguably even more of an opportunity to produce.

- Fabio Lucarini

6MOY Safe Pick - Jordan Clarkson, Utah Jazz (+550)

Clarkson is the favourite for Sixth Man of the Year, and I fully expect him to repeat as the award winner this season. He's taken the mantle of the league's "microwave scorer" from Lou Williams, putting up career numbers of 18.4 points 4.0 rebounds, 3.1 triples and 89.6 FT% last season. Clarkson’s 28.6 per cent usage rate was higher than players like James Harden, Julius Randle and Kawhi Leonard last year, so his role as a gunner extraordinaire suits him and the Jazz perfectly fine.

- Fabio Lucarini

6MOY Value Pick – Tyler Herro, Miami Heat (+1400)

Jamal Crawford, Lou Williams, Eric Gordon – what do all these previous Sixth Man of the Year winners have in common? Buckets. They come off the bench as heat-check scoring options. I recommend watching Herro’s preseason highlights and judge for yourself. He’s got a promising mix of handles, shooting touch, and shot types to run up the score. He’s averaging 20.8 points per game during preseason (fifth in the NBA). You can make the argument he’s Miami’s second best shot creator after Jimmy Butler. With Victor Oladipo still without a firm timetable to return, Herro is the first player off the bench for a Heat squad primed for a deep championship run. Pepper in his recent comments about ‘being in the same conversation as Luka, Trae, and Ja” and you get a sense of his motivations coming into this season.

- Wesley Cheng

MIP Safe Pick – Kevin Porter Jr., Houston Rockets (+1200)

Five players are priced between +1000 and +1600 for this Most Improved Player award which is traditionally the most volatile. KPJ will be tasked with filling the massive void left behind by James Harden and John Wall. In 26 games last season, the former 30th pick showed flashes of his potential dropping a 50-point, 11-assist double-double, draining nine three-pointers in the process. With Houston in full rebuild mode, he gets the chance to start a new dynasty alongside budding star and second-overall pick, Jalen Green. Those two have a chance to grow into one of the most dynamic backcourt duos.

- Wesley Cheng

MIP Value Pick - OG Anunoby, Toronto Raptors (+2500)

Big things are expected of Anunoby this year, and if the preseason is any indicator, he seems poised to take on the challenge as the No. 1 option. Pascal Siakam is on the shelf indefinitely, and Fred VanVleet has confirmed OG as Toronto's go-to-guy. His shooting in the preseason was outrageous (52-54-92) and he did it on high volume (12.5 FGA). If Anunoby can push towards 20 points every night while maintaining his defensive contributions, he will have a real shot at this award.

- Fabio Lucarini

DPOY Safe Pick – Rudy Gobert, Utah Jazz (+350)

Defensive Player of the Year isn’t like the other awards, voter fatigue isn’t really a thing. Since its inception in 1982-83, two players have won DPOY four times, three players have won it three times. The Utah Jazz have had a top-3 defensive rating in four of the last five seasons with The Stifle Tower as the anchor. In those same four seasons, Gobert was top-4 in player defensive rating. You can point to his age as a concern but judging by his performance during the Tokyo 2020 Olympics, he’s still the world’s most influential deterrent in the paint.

- Wesley Cheng

DPOY Value Pick - Bam Adebayo, MIA (+1600)

Knocking three-time winner Rudy Gobert off his pedestal is a near-impossible challenge, but we can only hope the voters get sick of him at some point. Miami's defence is ready to make a jump into the elite with the additions of Kyle Lowry and PJ Tucker, but Adebayo will be the poster-boy for their "D". His switchability and defensive versatility as big man is ideal for the current NBA, and he could improve on his 1.2 steals and 1.0 blocks from last season. If the Heat can improve on their 10th best defence (110.7 DRTG in 2020-2021), Bam represents great value at +1600.

- Fabio Lucarini