3rd And 1: Best Bets for Week 12 of the CFL season

Give a dog a bone, leave a dog alone

Let a dog roam and he’ll find his way home

Fanduel unleashed four home underdogs to choose from in week 12.  Naturally this line from DMX’s Ruff Ryders Anthem started playing in my mind.  The track has remained a part of my workout playlist since I happened to train with the artist himself.  Pure luck that a rap icon was getting ‘swole’ for his role in the movie Exit Wounds with Steven Seagal at the same gym I was training to be a failed division 1 hockey player way back when.  But that’s another story.  The dogs are barking but will any of them bring home a bone?

The Stamps are barely an underdog against the league’s best on Saturday night.  Calgary is coming off a bye and is the only team to beat Saskatchewan this season, so I’ll steer clear and put my feet up and enjoy the best in the west do battle after what is hopefully, by then, another winning week.

Le Grand Chien. The Als have gone from +4.5 to +7.5 ahead of Thursday night Football.

Of all the home dogs, this is the biggest. James Morgan is set to become the Alouettes fourth starting quarterback this season.  While it’s easy to lose faith deeper down the depth chart, Morgan looked alright for almost three quarters last week in BC.  He completed 20-of-33 pass attempts for 211 yards, one touchdown and one interception.  

He showed moments of poise and appeared to have a decent repour with Head Coach Jason Maas.  That’s the bright side.  If they have a chance against the Bombers, it’ll because of their defence.  That unit held the Lions to 16 points until late in the 3rd quarter last week.  It did everything possible to keep the game close against one of, if not the most dangerous offence in the league.  The Bombers aren’t nearly as efficient.  Despite scoring 30 points last week, the offence stalled late, Zach Collaros threw a pair of picks, and they almost let the Redblacks comeback and win a game they had no business covering.  Mike O’Shea’s questionable decision to kick a field goal could lead him to be a little more conservative this week, especially against a 4th string quarterback. I believe they’ll come away with a win, but just like I wrote last week: I don’t trust the Bombers to win big.

THE PICK: UNDER 47.5

The herd is moving.  The Elks have won back-to-back games and are 4-0 against the spread since Cody Fajardo took over at quarterback.  They opened as an underdog but are now -3 with Dustin Crum back under centre for the Redblacks.  Tough to see Dru Brown go down again, just when he was starting to find his groove.  Despite beating the Stamps in Calgary back in week 3, Crum is averaging just 173 passing yards in his two starts this season.  The Redblacks averaged 18 points in those games.  Meanwhile, it makes sense that the Elks offence is improved with Fajardo, but they’ve taken a huge statistical leap on defence since he took over.  They’ve gone from allowing 34 points a game which was last in the league through 7 weeks, to allowing fewer than 23 points a game in their last four.  These two teams combined for 72 points under very different circumstances in week 5, which partly explains the high total. I’m tempted to take the under 53.5 points (and I still might) but I’m going to stick with the safety of the herd as my pick.

THE PICK: ELKS -3

Watching Nathan Rourke drop 40-yard teardrops to his receivers in stride is a thing of beauty.  I’ll keep saying it:  the best value in the CFL betting market is on Rourke at 11-to-1 for MOP.  Your eyes should tell you he’s the best player in the league and his season long stats are starting to show it too.  In any event, I don’t see how the Argos slow him down this weekend, especially if Wynton McManis is banged up. He logged a full practice Wednesday but missed Tuesday with a triceps injury.  He’s already been hampered by a knee injury.  He’s their best player on defence.  Their best player on offence is Damonte Coxie who’s likely out with a head injury.  This line should be larger which makes me wonder if I’m wandering a little too far into the Lions’ den again. 

THE PICK: LIONS -3.5

PLAYER PROP:  JAMES BUTLER OVER 70.5 RUSHING YARDS

The league’s leading rusher has had over 80 rushing yards in four of his last five games.  The only game he didn’t was against Saskatchewan.  Not only were the Lions coming from behind in that game which limited his rushing attempts, but The Riders have the best run defence in the league.  The Argos have the worst.  They allow a league-high 114.4 yards per game to opposing running backs.  James Butler let me down last week by not scoring a touchdown, but that was only because we didn’t have a rushing prop for him.  He’ll probably find the endzone on Saturday but I believe the yards will pile up as the Lions look to lock down the lead.