Raise your hand if you wouldn’t like the NFL to make Monday Night Football doubleheaders a regular occurrence.

I’m going to just assume there are no hands in the air, because two games every Monday would be pure bliss.

Fortunately for football fans everywhere, Week 13 brings us this exact situation.

First up, the Washington Football Team clashes with the undefeated Pittsburgh Steelers, then the Buffalo Bills face the San Francisco 49ers.

The AFC East-leading Bills are 8-3 and opened as a 2.5-point favourite, but that line has swung all the way to the 49ers -1.

San Francisco is fresh off an upset victory over the L.A. Rams and is finally starting to get healthy.

 

Buffalo Bills at San Francisco 49ers

Line: 49ers -1
Total: 47

 

Better Late than Never

No team has been hit harder by injuries this season than the Niners, but last week marked the return of Raheem Mostert, Deebo Samuel and Richard Sherman, while Brandon Aiyuk will be back in the lineup this week.

Mostert, Samuel and Sherman each played a big role in the victory over L.A., and with Aiyuk available, Monday will mark the first time in well over a month that San Fran has had its starting three wide receivers on the field together.

Of all the 49ers skill-position players, Mostert is in the best spot on Monday night, as the Bills have been abysmal against the run.

Buffalo is yielding a rushing success rate of 56 per cent this season, and only one other team has allowed more rushing yards before contact.

The Bills are Pro Football Focus’ worst-graded run defence and are just two games removed from surrendering over 200 rushing yards to the Arizona Cardinals.

San Francisco wants nothing more than to run the ball down the throats of its opponents, and the stars are aligning for a big rushing output on Monday.

 

An Imposing Matchup

On the other side of the ball, Josh Allen enters play with as many interceptions (three) as touchdowns over the past two weeks.

His number two pass catcher John Brown is on IR, and the 49ers defence is among the best in the league.

San Francisco boasts PFF’s fourth-highest graded coverage unit, and only five teams allow fewer total yards per game. They’re fresh off a dominant performance versus the Rams, and Allen has struggled this year without Brown on the field.

In three games without Brown, Allen is averaging just 242 passing yards, which is more than 33 yards below his season average.

Buffalo is 2-1 in those outings, but it’s important to note that their opponents combined record in those games is just 3-21.

 

Follow the Money

Sharp money has poured in on the 49ers all week, moving this line 3.5 points in their direction.

San Francisco is finally back to a point where they have the bodies to impose their run game, a strategy they rode all the way to the Super Bowl last season.

The matchup is pristine, and with Buffalo down a key offensive piece, I like the Niners to come away with a victory.

Pick: San Francisco 49ers -1

 

Upon Further Review

49ers receiver Kendrick Bourne has popped up for a couple big games this year, but in each instance he was the beneficiary of one of Samuel or Aiyuk or both being out.

Now with both of San Francisco’s starting wide receivers healthy, and tight end Jordan Reed emerging as one of Nick Mullens’ favourite targets, we can expect Bourne’s production to be limited.

He’s a fade in all formats against the Bills on Monday night.