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TSN Senior Reporter

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The PGA Tour moves to Orlando, Fla., and the Arnold Palmer Invitational at the Bay Hill Club and Lodge.

After a difficult test last week at the Honda Classic on PGA National’s Champion Course, it doesn’t get much easier this week. In 2021, it was the ninth toughest test on the PGA Tour.

Last year, Bryson DeChambeau won with a score of 11 under. While there have been some players who’ve gone deep into red figures, the winning score is more often in single digits or low double.

DeChambeau has withdrawn, owing to those same nagging injuries that have dogged him for a few weeks now. That means no prodigious bombs over the water on the sixth hole this year.

However, there is enough firepower in the field this week to produce some excitement, just like Arnie used to do. Here are my picks for this week’s tournament:

Favourites

Rory McIlroy +1000

It’s hard not to like McIlroy at this tournament based on his previous performances. In his past five starts at Bay Hill, he’s finished 10th, fifth, sixth, winner and fourth. That’s a sterling record on a tough course. He also comes in playing some solid golf with a 10th, a third and a 12th in his last three starts worldwide. In his last two starts at the Dubai Desert Classic and the Genesis Invitational, his putting stats were well into the positive side of Strokes Gained: Putting. Even more impressive might be his wedge play which has also been showing some steady signs of improvement. Put it all together and it’s hard to think he won’t have a good week.

Viktor Hovland +1800

To be frank, Hovland’s track record around this course is not that great. He’s played this tournament three times and been in the 40s all three times. But he’s a changed man this year, or so it seems. His short game is starting to show signs of improvement even though it remains the weakest part of his arsenal. He tied for fourth at the Genesis Invitational where he was ninth in Strokes Gained: Putting and tied for seventh in Greens in Regulation.

Mid-Range

Matthew Fitzpatrick +2000

The last two PGA Tour starts for Fitzpatrick have yielded a tie for 10th and a tie for sixth, so he’s coming in with confidence. While he doesn’t have a large sample size with only four tournament starts this season, he is second in Strokes Gained: Total, a good indication of his all-around game. As for Bay Hill, he has a good track record, finishing 10th, ninth and second in his past three appearances.

Hideki Matsuyama +2500

Here’s another guy with a mediocre record at this tournament with just a single top 10 on his record. Last year he was tied for 18th. But he arrives playing better golf than pretty much every other player on the PGA Tour. He leads the FedEx Cup in no small part to his two victories and his solid game from tee to green. His putting can still cause worry, but he’s been on the positive side of Strokes Gained: Putting in three of his last four starts.

Keith Mitchell +4500

Speaking of hot players, Mitchell has finished inside the top 12 in five of his past six tournaments. He’s also been inside the top 25 six times in 11 starts this season. As for the Arnold Palmer Invitational, he has a fifth and a sixth in his previous three appearances. He’s currently 15th in Strokes Gained: Overall on the PGA Tour.

Corey Conners +7000

It’s been an unusual year for Conners, who missed the cut in three of his last four starts. He is also without a top-10 finish in eight tournaments this season. That could change this week as he returns to the scene of a good performance a year ago. Conners led the tournament after 18 and 36 holes before settling for a third-place finish. He took advantage of the par 5s that week, gong 12 under over four days. This is certainly playing a hunch, but he’s due to break out of these doldrums with his game.