Jan 2, 2019
Game of Throws: Numbers illustrate unpredictability of this year’s playoff pool
While theIndianapolis Colts-Houston Texans playoff game might be the most unlikely matchup of NFL Wild Card weekend, the Saturday night showdown between the Seattle Seahawks and Dallas Cowboys isn’t far behind, Domenic Padula writes.

Unpredictability created drama from start to finish this NFL season.
The numbers indicate that will continue throughout the playoffs.
Ten of the 12 teams that qualified for the postseason were below .500 at some point throughout the year. That’s an NFL record.
Meanwhile, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index, nine of the 12 teams had less than a 50 per cent chance to make the playoffs at one point or another this season.
The first matchup of NFL Wild Card weekend epitomizes the unpredictability of this football season.
The Indianapolis Colts are just the third team in NFL history to reach the playoffs following a 1-5 start.
Meanwhile, the Houston Texans are just the sixth team in league history to make it after a 0-3 start.
Despite winning 11 of its final 13 games to win the AFC South at 11-5, Houston is actually listed as a small underdog against the Colts.
A big part of that is the fact that Indianapolis went 9-1 to close out the regular season, including a 24-21 win over the Texans in Week 14.
Comeback Player of the Year favourite Andrew Luck threw for 399 yards and two touchdowns in that win over Houston. With Luck performing at such a high level and a defence that ranks among the best in the NFL since Week 7, it’s no surprise that the Colts are small favourites to win this weekend. That’s quite the turnaround for an Indianapolis side that had just a nine per cent chance to make the postseason after losing five of its first six games to open the season.
While the Colts and Texans might be the most unlikely matchup of NFL Wild Card weekend, the Saturday night showdown between the Seattle Seahawks and Dallas Cowboys isn’t far behind.
After all, Seattle was given just a 12 per cent chance to make the playoffs following a 4-5 start to the season.
Dallas had a 13 per cent chance to make the postseason after starting 3-5, much less win the NFC East.
The Seahawks beat the Cowboys 24-13 at home back in Week 3, but a lot has changed for both teams since then.
Dallas is listed as a small favourite at home. However, regardless of which team comes out on top, the winner of this contest will need to overcome the odds in order to make a Super Bowl run.
After all, only one team in NFL history went on to win the Super Bowl after posting a record below .500 through its first seven games – the 2001 New England Patriots.
That isn’t to say that any one of the Colts, Texans, Seahawks or Cowboys can’t make a deep playoff run. It’s just that they will need to beat the odds to do it.
Looking forward to Sunday, the AFC Wild Card round showdown between the Los Angeles Chargers and Baltimore Ravens is intriguing for several reasons.
First of all, the Chargers are the visiting team despite finishing with the better record at 12-4.
Baltimore, which went 10-6, earned home field advantage via an AFC South division title.
Second, the Ravens wouldn’t have qualified for the playoffs without a 22-10 win over Los Angeles in Week 16. If the Chargers had taken care of business at home versus Baltimore, there is a good chance they would be travelling to Pittsburgh to face the Steelers this weekend.
Third, this game will feature the most unique quarterback matchup of Wild Card weekend with 15-year veteran Philip Rivers starting opposite rookie Lamar Jackson, who has seven NFL starts to his name.
Since 1990, rookie quarterbacks are 1-4 in playoff games when the opposite quarterback has 10 years of experience or more.
Then again, the Ravens went 6-1 with Jackson under centre and his best performance came in the win over L.A. when he threw for a career-high 204 yards and a touchdown with 39 rushing yards.
Baltimore is one of five teams that qualified for the playoffs despite being below .500 in Week 9 or later.
Now the Ravens will be a slight favourite to beat L.A. on their home turf.
The final matchup of NFL Wild Card weekend features the most unlikely playoff team.
After all, the Philadelphia Eagles needed a win over the Washington Redskins combined with a Minnesota Vikings loss to the Chicago Bears just to clinch the final NFC Wild Card spot at 9-7.
The Eagles are the defending Super Bowl champions. However, Philadelphia isn’t nearly as deep as it was a year ago. Plus, even if Nick Foles plays, he won’t be 100 per cent as he continues to deal with soreness in his ribs.
The Eagles are listed as the biggest underdogs of Wild Card weekend as they get set to visit the Bears.
Do Foles and company have enough magic left to upset the NFC North champs on the road?
The odds are certainly against a Philadelphia win. Then again, the odds have been against the Eagles for some time now and they keep finding ways to get the job done.
Unpredictability has been a big part of this NFL season.
The numbers indicate that’s likely to continue throughout what should be a dramatic and entertaining Wild Card weekend.
The road to the Super Bowl appears wide open right now. That’s because it is.