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May 17, 2021

Golden Knights miss out on Presidents' Trophy, but finish atop Power Rankings

Our final Power Rankings of the 2020-21 season are here and while they aren’t meant to forecast playoff success, there may be some telling stats that carry over into the postseason.

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By Sportlogiq Staff (@Sportlogiq)

Our final Power Rankings of the 2020-21 season are here and while they aren’t meant to forecast playoff success, there may be some telling stats that carry over into the postseason.

For the final edition, we used the same model that weights goal differential, expected goal differential, and points percentage, and added a bit more weight to the final month of the season. Here are the results.

The Vegas Golden Knights lost out on the Presidents’ Trophy on the final day of the season. The consolation prize is being named winners of our regular season Power Rankings. Vegas finished first in goal differential and won a league-high 11 games in the final month of the season.

However, in finishing second place to the Colorado Avalanche in the West Division, Vegas was seeded against a Minnesota Wild team that went 10-3-2 down the stretch. As we know, Minnesota has a 1-0 series lead thanks to a 1-0 win Sunday afternoon.

The Colorado Avalanche finished just behind Vegas in our final rankings. The Avs finished first in expected goal differential and second in goal differential. Colorado finished the season 9-4-0 in the final month but is every bit as dangerous as the Golden Knights heading into Game 1 of their series against the St. Louis Blues on Monday night.

Not surprisingly, the Toronto Maple Leafs are the highest-ranked Canadian team, slotting in at No. 4. Toronto finished sixth in points percentage but fourth in goal differential and second in expected goal differential. The Maple Leafs open their playoffs against the Montreal Canadiens on Thursday. 

Edmonton appears to be Canada’s next best hope of ending its 28-year Stanley Cup drought as the Oilers are the only other Canadian team to crack the top 10 in our rankings.

The Oilers finished in the top 10 in goal differential and expected goal differential and are favoured in their first-round matchup against the Winnipeg Jets. The Sportlogiq model gives Edmonton 51.4 percent odds of beating Winnipeg. We all know what the Oilers offence is capable of and the Jets are the only team in the NHL to make the playoffs with a bottom-10 expected goals-against average.

Despite missing the playoffs, the Calgary Flames are the next highest-ranked Canadian team at 16. The Flames are still playing games and have the 11th-best expected goal differential in the league. Unfortunately for Calgary, it underperformed offensively and in goal, and the result was missing the playoffs. 

The Jets sit two spots back of the Flames in 18th place on our list. Before you close this tab, here’s why: Winnipeg has the worst record in the NHL in the past month at 3-9-0. As mentioned, the Jets are the only bottom-10 team in expected goals against – a reflection of team defence – to make the playoffs. The Jets expected goals against differential ranks 20th in the league.

All that said, this isn’t the National Expected Hockey League and Connor Hellebuyck has shown he can cover for many of Winnipeg’s defensive shortcomings. In an 82-game season, perhaps the Jets would be in danger of dropping out of a playoff spot, but they’re in and they will start from scratch against Edmonton. 

The Montreal Canadiens sit 19th on our list. The Canadiens finished the season 18th in goal differential and points percentage and16th in expected goal differential. Montreal expects to have Brendan Gallagher, Shea Weber and Carey Price back for the playoffs, though it will be in tough against the Maple Leafs. 

The Ottawa Senators finish the season 20th on our list. The Sens closed out the season with a 9-2-1 record in the final month – only the Florida Panthers had a better points percentage. If not for the Senators' disastrous first month of the season, this team would have had a shot at making the playoffs. The future looks bright in Ottawa. 

The Vancouver Canucks are the final Canadian team, ranking 27th overall. The Canucks were never able to get their season on track and almost had it derailed entirely after a COVID-19 outbreak took a toll on the entire organization.

Credit where credit is due as the players have made the most out of a difficult situation. Brock Boeser continues to be a bright spot, scoring twice on Sunday giving him a team-high 22 goals in 54 games.

 

 

Vegas Golden Knights
1. Vegas Golden Knights

Last Week: No. 5 | 40-14-2

  • Avg. Goal Dif.
    +1.21 (1)
  • xGoal Dif.
    +.62 (3)
  • Point %
    .732 (1)
Colorado Avalanche
2. Colorado Avalanche

Last Week: No. 4 | 39-13-4

  • Avg. Goal Dif.
    +1.16 (2)
  • xGoal Dif.
    +1.21 (1)
  • Point %
    .732 (1)
Florida Panthers
3. Florida Panthers

Last Week: No. 2 | 37-14-5

  • Avg. Goal Dif.
    +.66 (6)
  • xGoal Dif.
    +.59 (4)
  • Point %
    .705 (4)
Toronto Maple Leafs
4. Toronto Maple Leafs

Last Week: No. 1 | 35-14-7

  • Avg. Goal Dif.
    +.68 (4)
  • xGoal Dif.
    +.98 (2)
  • Point %
    .688 (6)
Carolina Hurricanes
5. Carolina Hurricanes

Last Week: No. 3 | 36-12-8

  • Avg. Goal Dif.
    +.73 (3)
  • xGoal Dif.
    +.58 (5)
  • Point %
    .714 (3)
Pittsburgh Penguins
6. Pittsburgh Penguins

Last Week: No. 8 | 37-16-3

  • Avg. Goal Dif.
    +.68 (4)
  • xGoal Dif.
    +.30 (9)
  • Point %
    .688 (6)
Boston Bruins
7. Boston Bruins

Last Week: No. 6 | 33-16-7

  • Avg. Goal Dif.
    +.54 (8)
  • xGoal Dif.
    +.41 (6)
  • Point %
    .652 (10)
Edmonton Oilers
8. Edmonton Oilers

Last Week: No. 9 | 35-19-2

  • Avg. Goal Dif.
    +.52 (9)
  • xGoal Dif.
    +.39 (8)
  • Point %
    .643 (11)
Tampa Bay Lightning
9. Tampa Bay Lightning

Last Week: No. 7 | 36-17-3

  • Avg. Goal Dif.
    +.62 (7)
  • xGoal Dif.
    +.41 (7)
  • Point %
    .670 (8)
Washington Capitals
10. Washington Capitals

Last Week: No. 11 | 36-15-5

  • Avg. Goal Dif.
    +.48 (10)
  • xGoal Dif.
    +.06 (15)
  • Point %
    .688 (6)

 

 

Minnesota Wild
11. Minnesota Wild

Last Week: No. 10 | 35-16-5

  • Avg. Goal Dif.
    +.38 (12)
  • xGoal Dif.
    +.14 (13)
  • Point %
    .670 (8)
New York Islanders
12. New York Islanders

Last Week No. 12 | 32-17-7

  • Avg. Goal Dif.
    +.48 (10)
  • xGoal Dif.
    +.14 (14)
  • Point %
    .634 (12)
Nashville Predators
13. Nashville Predators

Last Week: No. 15 | 31-23-2

  • Avg. Goal Dif.
    -.05 (17)
  • xGoal Dif.
    -.12 (19)
  • Point %
    .571 (13)
St. Louis Blues
14. St. Louis Blues

Last Week: No. 13 | 27-20-9

  • Avg. Goal Dif.
    0 (16)
  • xGoal Dif.
    -.07 (17)
  • Point %
    .562 (14)
Dallas Stars
15. Dallas Stars

Last Week: No. 18 | 23-19-14

  • Avg. Goal Dif.
    +.14 (15)
  • xGoal Dif.
    +.20 (12)
  • Point %
    .536 (16)
Calgary Flames
16. Calgary Flames

Last Week: No. 14 | 25-26-3

  • Avg. Goal Dif.
    -.13 (19)
  • xGoal Dif.
    +.26 (11)
  • Point %
    .491 (21)
New York Rangers
17. New York Rangers

Last Week: No. 17 | 27-23-6

  • Avg. Goal Dif.
    +.38 (12)
  • xGoal Dif.
    +.29 (10)
  • Point %
    .536 (16)
Winnipeg Jets
18. Winnipeg Jets

Last Week: No. 19 | 30-23-3

  • Avg. Goal Dif.
    +.32 (14)
  • xGoal Dif.
    - .19 (20)
  • Point %
    .562 (14)
Montreal Canadiens
19. Montreal Canadiens

Last Week: No. 16 | 24-21-11

  • Avg. Goal Dif.
    -.12 (18)
  • xGoal Dif.
    +.01 (16)
  • Point %
    .527 (18)
Ottawa Senators logo
20. Ottawa Senators

Last Week: No. 20 | 23-28-5

  • Avg. Goal Dif.
    -.61 (23)
  • xGoal Dif.
    -.41 (24)
  • Point %
    .455 (23)
Philadelphia Flyers
21. Philadelphia Flyers

Last Week: No. 21 | 25-23-8

  • Avg. Goal Dif.
    -.66 (24)
  • xGoal Dif.
    -.09 (18)
  • Point %
    .518 (19)
Arizona Coyotes
22. Arizona Coyotes

Last Week: No. 23 | 24-26-6

  • Avg. Goal Dif.
    -.43 (20)
  • xGoal Dif.
    -.61 (28)
  • Point %
    .482 (22)
Chicago Blackhawks
23. Chicago Blackhawks

Last Week: No. 25 | 24-25-7

  • Avg. Goal Dif.
    -.45 (21)
  • xGoal Dif.
    -.29 (22)
  • Point %
    .491 (20)
New Jersey Devils
24. New Jersey Devils

Last Week: No. 22 | 19-30-7

  • Avg. Goal Dif.
    -.79 (27)
  • xGoal Dif.
    -.24 (21)
  • Point %
    .402 (29)
Los Angeles Kings
25. Los Angeles Kings

Last Week: No. 24 | 21-28-7

  • Avg. Goal Dif.
    -.48 (22)
  • xGoal Dif.
    -.49 (26)
  • Point %
    .438 (25)
Detroit Red Wings
26. Detroit Red Wings

Last Week: No. 28 | 19-27-10

  • Avg. Goal Dif.
    -.77 (26)
  • xGoal Dif.
    -.52 (27)
  • Point %
    .429 (27)
San Jose Sharks
27. San Jose Sharks

Last Week: No. 26 | 21-28-7

  • Avg. Goal Dif.
    -.89 (28)
  • xGoal Dif.
    -.34 (23)
  • Point %
    .438 (25)
Vancouver Canucks
30. Vancouver Canucks

Last Week: 30 | 22-28-4

  • Avg. Goal Dif.
    -.69 (25)
  • xGoal Dif.
    -1.06 (31)
  • Point %
    .444 (24)
Columbus Blue Jackets
29. Columbus Blue Jackets

Last Week: No. 27 | 18-26-12

  • Avg. Goal Dif.
    -.89 (28)
  • xGoal Dif.
    -.85 (29)
  • Point %
    .429 (27)
Anaheim Ducks
30. Anaheim Ducks

Last Week: No. 29 | 17-30-9

  • Avg. Goal Dif.
    -.95 (30)
  • xGoal Dif.
    -.46 (25)
  • Point %
    .384 (30)
Buffalo Sabres
31. Buffalo Sabres

Last Week: No. 31 | 15-34-7

  • Avg. Goal Dif.
    -1.11 (31)
  • xGoal Dif.
    -.88 (30)
  • Point %
    .330 (31)