Big-name stars.

Unexpected changes in power.

Family squabbling.

The plotlines consuming the NHL North Division could easily be part of an HBO prestige TV show.

This weekend, with another head-coach dismissal occurring right before the Battle of Alberta, as well as the Maple Leafs coming off a defeat, will prove too tempting to resist.

Toronto Maple Leafs at Vancouver Canucks

Saturday, March 6 – 7 PM ET

The Toronto Maple Leafs tend to make a special point of highlighting their opponents’ flaws. The Edmonton Oilers found this out the hard way as Toronto’s Pierre Engvall line exposed the Oilers’ defencemen’s leaden foot speed, and the Leafs’ top-six forwards preyed on the Oilers’ overwhelmed transition defence. Toronto blitzed Edmonton, outscoring them 13-1 over the span of three games and sweeping the series.

The Vancouver Canucks came prepared with adjustments against Toronto Thursday night, and squeezed out a 3-1 victory as a result. For example, when three opposing forwards are deep on the forecheck, Toronto likes to have one or more forwards fly the zone to start a transition attack against the stranded enemy defencemen. When this unfolded in the second period, Vancouver defenceman Alexander Edler stepped up and created a turnover on the stretch pass, initiating an odd-man rush the other way for Jake Virtanen and Bo Horvat.

The Canucks’ victory against the Maple Leafs derived from counterattacks and a sustained cycle. On the Horvat goal in the third period, the Vancouver centre cleverly retreated to the hash marks and forced an awkward switch between Travis Dermott and Auston Matthews.

Make no mistake, the key to slowing down Toronto was not “solved.” The Canucks allowed two more high-danger chances to the Maple Leafs in Toronto’s second game of a back-to-back. Vancouver goaltender Thatcher Demko needed to make a few superb saves, which he did, submitting a sterling 1.95 Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx). The Canucks needed the win, so kudos to them. But replicating it on Saturday is a different story.

The scariest thing about the Maple Leafs is that their bottom-six forwards are recently contributing offence. In the Edmonton series, the Engvall, Zach Hyman and Illya Mikheyev line scored three goals and allowed zero while playing almost all their minutes against the Oilers’ Leon Drasaitl and Connor McDavid lines. Fourth line forwards Jimmy Vesey and Jason Spezza also chipped in goals against Edmonton.

Matthews missed two of the three games in that series, and the Leafs compensated by suffocating their opponent defensively and running them out of the arena with their quickness. This tactic was not completely absent Thursday night; on the Engvall goal, Vesey made a stick-check on Quinn Hughes that sprung the rush chance.

Part of the beauty of the Maple Leafs’ offence is their equal opportunity ideology. Overload on one side of the ice and they will find Zach Bogosian on the weak side. The Canucks are dreadful on defence, and the Maple Leafs rank in the top 10 offensively in expected goals and high-danger chances. They are also good at avenging losses, having suffered consecutive defeats only once this season. A -159 moneyline for Toronto is palatable.

Pick: Maple Leafs -159

Bonus Pick:

I never understood the stigma about picking low hanging fruit. This might be the most obvious bet on the board on Saturday and I will gleefully grab it.

Auston Matthews has not scored in four straight games. In the last two games since returning from his wrist injury, he has 12 shots. As of February 21st , Matthews was averaging a goal a game! Combining the 2019-20 regular season with the 2020-21 season thus far, the only player in the NHL who has a better goals per 60 minutes at all strengths than Matthews is David Pastrnak.

Also, an elite goal scorer like Matthews will benefit from playing Vancouver, the league’s worst team in expected goals against and high-danger chances against at 5-on-5. Oh, and Toronto’s amazing power play is over 30 per cent and Matthews is featured on it. The Canucks are fourth in penalties taken per 60 minutes. Toronto will get man-advantage looks.

What is striking is how the Matthews line creates skating and passing lanes for itself with its speed and ability to protect the puck. Vancouver is home so they have last change, and coach Travis Green opted to use Nate Schmidt and Edler against Matthews on Thursday (with the Horvat line taking the forward minutes).

Matthews may not have registered a goal on Thursday, but against Vancouver this season the Toronto sniper has done well. In 57 minutes of 5-on-5 against the Canucks, Matthews and linemate Mitch Marner have been on the ice for seven goals and have an eye-popping 3.34 expected goals per 60 minutes. I expect a more dominant effort on Saturday from Toronto, and Matthews will be the tip of the spear.

Pick: Auston Matthews to score a goal +100

 

Calgary Flames at Edmonton Oilers

Saturday, Mar. 6 – 10PM ET

On February 6th, the Edmonton Oilers lost to the Calgary Flames 6-4. It was their 13th game of the season. Since that defeat, Edmonton has played 12 more games, and if you compare the metrics of the first 13 games with the last 12, it is remarkable how close the numbers are in categories like expected goals, high-danger chances, and shots for and against at 5-on-5.

So, when the Oilers rip off five straight wins and lose three straight in humiliating fashion, it conjures up an unstable team whipsawing between extremes. But in reality, the Oilers are an adequate 5-on-5 team with two great offensive lines that will likely make the playoffs.

Connor McDavid and Leon Drasaitl have had different experiences against Calgary this season. McDavid and linemate Ryan Nugent-Hopkins have four goals at even strength in three games. They were also playmakers on a power play that razed the Flames, adding four more with the man advantage.

In McDavid’s last game against Calgary, he had a hat trick and two assists after being held pointless the night before. Drasaitl has not experienced those highs – he has only been on the ice for one goal against Calgary in three games. With Edmonton having last change, I expect coach Dave Tippett to be intent on changing that trend.

Calgary is fortunate that Flames goaltender Jacob Markstrom returns to the fold on Saturday. His backup, David Rittich, has a -3.55 GSAx, so Calgary will get a boost from a goalie change, even if Markstrom is a bit rusty.

The Oilers had a plus-eight goal differential in the first period entering the Toronto series before being outscored a total of 6-0 in the first frame in the subsequent three games.

The Oilers are not a powerhouse, but they aren’t a pushover either. I think Edmonton reverses its pattern of losing the game in the first 20 minutes, and at a -143 money line I think the Oilers are a good bet to get back in the win column.

Pick: Oilers -143