The Eastern Conference postseason bracket is going to give hockey fans everything they want. It has stars, legacy teams, up-and-comers, loads of skill and speed.

But in the regular season, what the conference lacks is existential drama. Love them or hate them, the Washington Capitals are making the playoffs. The playoff picture is set.

While there is still jostling for seeding in the East, it doesn’t offer the same compelling story as the West. In the West, uncertainty abounds. As such, I have selected my picks from games that include teams from this conference. Admittedly, the Flames don’t have quite the same stakes, but they are a delight to bet on.

Detroit Red Wings at Calgary Flames

Saturday, March 12 – 7 PM ET

If there are still doubters, they are currently in hiding. The Calgary Flames are a legitimate Stanley Cup candidate, and they are doing everything in their power to convey that message. Since February 1, they are 14-2-1. They are second in goals for percentage per 60 minutes at 5-on-5. They are top five in high-danger chances and expected goals. And they are pulverizing teams in their own rink.

The Detroit Red Wings are trying to send a very different message to the betting community. In that span they are 4-7-1. They have the third-worst goals for percentage at 5-on-5 during that stretch. And they are bottom-six in the NHL in high-danger chances and expected goals. Detroit, meet Calgary, your opposite!

One bit of good news for the Red Wings is that forward Jakub Vrana recently made his 2021-22 regular season debut. That is a big deal because, as a Red Wing, Vrana has been almost a goal-per-game player. Shocking, but you read that right! While he is converting on a laughably high percentage of shots on goal, give the man credit where it is due. Vrana’s expected goals per 60 minutes and high-danger chances per hour greatly outpace his peers, and his rush attempts per 60 minutes also win in a landslide. It’s a small sample size, but maybe Detroit is a great fit for him.

Unfortunately, Vrana can’t clone himself and play defence. The Red Wings are a suspect defensive team going against a Flames team that seems primed to eat them alive. The Flames’ forecheck could win Saturday’s game by itself.

In their 2-1-2, Calgary’s forecheckers are so proficient at forcing turnovers, it made the Tampa Bay Lightning defencemen look bumbling at times on Thursday night. On the second Johnny Gaudreau goal, when Brayden Point won the faceoff, the Gaudreau line and defencemen didn’t backpedal. Instead of being frightened of Point and Nikita Kucherov getting behind them, the Gaudreau line dug its heels in, forced multiple turnovers, and won the battle in front of the net.

Maybe the most interesting part of the game is how the Red Wings’ defencemen approach the Gaudreau line. On Calgary breakouts, do the Detroit’s defencemen aggressively pinch and try to squelch the outlet, possibly exposing themselves to the Flames’ formidable transition if the puck bypasses them? Or do they pull back and hope to contain farther downstream? The answer is likely the former, but if the Flames manufacture odd-man rushes off of Detroit pinches, the Red Wings could lose this game very quickly.

Another troubling aspect of Saturday’s game is how the Red Wings handle Calgary’s cycle. The Flames love to spread out their opponent, use the low-to-high play with their defencemen, and hammer the puck on net as two Flames skaters wreak havoc in the slot. Can Detroit box those players out? Can they force the Flames into one-and-done? I’m doubtful.

Other than the Panthers, the Flames are the only consistent, viable puck-line team now. It seems inevitable that soon bettors will get priced out, so I want to cash in while I can. Puck line, please!

Pick: Flames -125

Los Angeles Kings at San Jose Sharks

Saturday, March 12 – 9:30 PM ET

The Kings have taken many by surprise, including myself, partially due to their anonymity. The roster is a mix of the old guard from the Cup years, seemingly nondescript depth players brought into the fold, and promising young players scooped up from the draft due to the team’s poor performance the last few seasons. It’s a jumble of players that on paper doesn’t reveal how good they are.

The Kings’ analytics are fantastic and the reasons are manifold. They pepper opposing goaltenders with shots. They are physical on the forecheck and protect the puck well on the cycle. Their defencemen aggressively challenge at each line, and overall the Kings’ gaps are outstanding. Their 1-3-1 neutral-zone set gobbles up adversaries, allowing them to mount a fearsome counterattack. Before the Kings lost to the San Jose Sharks 4-3 in overtime Thursday night in the first game of their home-and-home, they had won eight of their past 10 games.

But defensive groups were an important storyline from the Sharks’ victory. San Jose has defenceman Erik Karlsson back and –presto! – the Sharks’ transition attack came alive. On the Sharks’ game-tying goal, Karlsson worked a give-and-go with Tomas Hertl before Karlsson spotted Alexander Barabanov cutting to the net. While Karlsson was injured, the San Jose rush had practically vanished.

Unfortunately, the Kings have several key players missing on defence like Drew Doughty and Mikey Anderson, and new, inexperienced players have been inserted in their stead. But overall, the Kings looked sharp at 5-on-5. Their penalty kill had been bad when Doughty and Anderson were healthy, and it proved costly on Thursday night, as two of the Sharks’ three goals in regulation came with San Jose on the man advantage. On Saturday, if the Kings stay out of the penalty box, they should hold the edge.

When considering Saturday’s game, it is important to highlight that much of what the Kings aimed to do in Thursday’s contest worked. They were successful on their forecheck and cycle, and San Jose spent a lot of time chasing Los Angeles around its own end. The Kings looked to yank the Sharks’ defencemen up high so they could attack a vulnerable forward down low. Their defencemen had time and room to smack shots at the tops of the circles when the Sharks crowded the area in the lower half of the zone. And the Sharks let up odd-man rushes multiple times because a San Jose defenceman pinched in, but no forward covered for him.

The Sharks have won five of their last 20 games. They might not be in a death spiral, but they are in a dark place. With goaltenders Adin Hill and James Reimer injured, San Jose is saddled with Zach Sawchenko and Alex Stalock. With the Kings vying for a playoff spot and needing victories, I think they win handily Saturday. I’ll take the Kings’ moneyline.

Pick: Kings -135

Tampa Bay Lightning at Edmonton Oilers

Saturday, March 12 – 10 PM ET

Hockey is a sport that elicits a range of emotions: elation, anger, hope, worry. The Tampa Bay Lightning have been the standard-bearers of one distinct emotion recently: boredom.

Tampa Bay has been demonstrating an ennui that rivals the students in Ferris Bueller’s Day Off.  But the Lightning are so skilled that they can play hooky during the first period and still win most games. At least that was true until this week, as the Lightning are on a two-game losing streak.

In the Lightning’s first defeat against the Winnipeg Jets on Tuesday, their apathy was in full bloom as they exhibited poor puck management, a porous defence, and a sluggish forecheck. At the conclusion of the first stanza, the score was 3-3, but the Lightning could easily have allowed six. The Lightning’s pervasive apathy is not lost on coach Jon Cooper; he started the game shaking up the forward lines – to no avail.

Against Calgary Thursday, the Lightning weren’t quite sleepwalking, but they weren’t hyper alert, a kind of before-the-first-coffee vibe. In the first period, Tampa Bay could barely bring the puck over centre ice and the Flames were forcing them to chip the puck out of the zone and dump and chase. Again, Cooper tried different forward combinations, and for a while in the second period, before the contest slipped away from them entirely, Tampa Bay found their game.

But Saturday may be different. Edmonton is an ideal opponent because the Oilers love nothing more than to give up the first goal. Change lines, switch goalies, bring in a new coach. It doesn’t matter; the Oilers will trail 1-0. That alone makes this game must-see television: What happens when two teams who can’t start on time meet up? It’s a social experiment rivalling Love Is Blind.

The Jay Woodcroft-era in Edmonton began with a bang. The Oilers won five straight, and in expected goals and high-danger chances they posted the best offensive numbers in the NHL at 5-on-5. In the subsequent nine games, they have gone 3-5-1, and their offensive metrics have noticeably suffered. Some of this is explainable, as without Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Jesse Puljujarvi, both currently sidelined, the Oilers have seven forwards who can act as a net positive, and that may be a generous assessment. A top-heavy forward group is having its depth tested.

I’m curious what we see from the middle of the ice in this game. Against Tampa Bay, the Flames had a lot of success flying through the neutral zone, partially because the stretch pass was open, but also because the Lightning retreated.

Calgary also ginned up looks through the middle of the ice. For instance, the Flames’ scouting evidently tipped them off that Tampa Bay’s defencemen have a proclivity for being split out far wide, and the Flames found Elias Lindholm for a breakaway off this Lightning habit. But can the Oilers win the battle for space and control the neutral zone? I’m not so sure.

The Lightning need their defencemen providing secondary scoring, and lately, they have delivered. Victor Hedman and Mikhail Sergachev have been white hot recently, but they need the Tampa Bay forwards to cover for their forays on the attack. Since March 1, the Lightning’s offensive high-danger chances have sunk. Before March 1, Tampa Bay was producing chances per 60 minutes at an elite level.

While Tampa Bay can play poorly and come up victorious, one hopes that losing by three-goals in consecutive games is a galvanizing force. It’s a long season, but I think Cooper will summon a better effort from his talented, but indifferent, team.

I’ll grab the Lightning money line.

Pick: Lightning -140