The NHL trade deadline is Monday and every team has its needs. What makes this weekend’s set of games particularly riveting is the possibility of having one final glimpse of a player donning his familiar sweater, or a roster in its current form. Does a poor effort by a playoff contender shift the calculus of a team’s front office? The demarcation element adds uncertainty, but also excitement, to a frenetic upcoming weekend.

Chicago Blackhawks at Minnesota Wild
Saturday, March 19– 2:00PM ET

There is a story told on the Blackhawks’ broadcast that should be familiar to those who tune in regularly. After the All-Star break, coach Derek King urged the Blackhawks’ defencemen to pinch more aggressively in the offensive zone. Yes, it could leave the Blackhawks vulnerable to the counterattack, but it was a worthy trade-off to give Chicago’s scorers more offensive opportunity.

When King took over, a crucial objective was to halt the odd-man rushes and ditch the laissez-faire attitude in the neutral zone. The Blackhawks’ gaps improved, but their offence still struggled.  So King’s gesture toward more offence is a bit of a reaction to the reaction. Yield a little on the offensive side while trying to maintain a more restrained defensive posture.

But recently something short-circuited. Starting February 20th, the Blackhawks let up three or more goals in nine straight games. They allowed five or more goals three times. On Tuesday, the Blackhawks at least made it to overtime before losing 2-1 to the Boston Bruins, snapping that ugly streak, but they allowed almost 50 shots. Marc-Andre Fleury posted a monstrously good 2.83 Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) and was the primary reason the game wasn’t decided in regulation.

Against this backdrop, the Minnesota Wild don’t make for a favourable matchup for Chicago. If the Blackhawks don’t manage the puck prudently, Minnesota has two quick-strike lines in the Kirill Kaprizov and Kevin Fiala trios that can make them pay. The Wild are deeper and more skilled, and their metrics have been stellar lately.

True, the Wild, like the Blackhawks, are having their own defensive issues, partially stemming from bad goaltending, but also from more micro failures like sagging too much on entries, thereby surrendering the blue line. But on Wednesday night against the Bruins, the Wild checked better in their own end and tracked better through the neutral zone.

The Bruins found opportunities off the cycle when they were able to catch Minnesota slow to rotate to the weak side point, but I have skepticism about the Blackhawks’ ability to successfully forecheck against Minnesota or their ability to skate through the Wild’s 1-3-1 in the neutral zone. Oh, and losing Brandon Hagel, who led the Blackhawks in Goals Above Replacement (GAR), to Tampa Bay only deepens my cynicism.

If the Blackhawks win this game, it will be because of the Patrick Kane, Alex DeBrincat and Dylan Strome line, which has been shredding adversaries lately. But bad news for them: Since the Wild are at home and have last change, they will be utilizing Joel Eriksson Ek, Jordan Greenway and Marcus Foligno against them, and they have a convincing case for being the best shutdown line in the NHL. Despite extremely tough usage, the Eriksson Ek line is outscoring its opponents 15-2 and registering a ludicrous 71.59 high-danger chances percentage.

The Wild goaltending situation is heartburn inducing, but with Chicago’s Fleury in a swirl of trade rumours, one would assume Kevin Lankinen gets the nod. And he is such a bad option that it nullifies Minnesota’s deficit in this department.

I’ll take the Wild in regulation.

Pick: Wild -170

New Jersey Devils at Edmonton Oilers
Saturday, March 19– 3:00PM ET

Buckle up because this game is going to be a doozy. For those of us who lived through the 1990s, it is jarring to watch the New Jersey Devils of 2022. The Devils of the late 20th century were famously conservative in their system of play; today’s Devils play with the reckless abandon of a musician who got too famous too fast. Their foot is on the pedal all the time.

For example, the Oilers play a 1-2-2 in the neutral zone, and when they score first, they really try to batten down the hatches by using that middle of the ice forecheck to produce counterattacks. The Devils don’t care. They are going to try to carry the puck through the layers of defenders and beat Edmonton with their speed.

In that same vein, the Oilers’ defencemen are programmed to step up in the neutral zone and be a disruptive force. But the Devils’ modus operandi on breakouts is using the stretch pass and flip pass to get out in transition. If the Devils play this smart, they could test the Oilers’ forward help underneath that empowers Edmonton’s defencemen to play so aggressively. Either way, transition looks and chances should be in abundance.

The Oilers have won four straight, and the reason to entrust your money with them in this game is the Devils’ defence. The Devils’ defencemen cede the blue line a lot on entries, so Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl should have ample opportunity to attack with speed.

Part of the reason for this is flagging support from the Devils forwards. Against the Flames on Wednesday night, Jonas Siegenthaler stepped up to deny the Calgary entry because forward Yegor Sharangovich was in lockstep with Dillon Dube to his right. But oddly, Sharangovich peeled off and left Dube to walk in and score. Maybe the Devils’ defencemen sinking on entries makes sense when contextualized.

During the Oilers’ current four-game win streak, they are posting elite numbers, rating top-five in high-danger chances and expected goals. And this is coming from the rush, forecheck, and on counterattacks. Against the Devils, the Oilers should find a neutral zone with plenty of room. In the defensive zone, New Jersey struggles to sort out its defensive coverage when the puck goes below the goal line. If the Oilers take away the Devils’ stretch pass, it should be a struggle for New Jersey to make several passes to exit the zone.

The Oilers are getting healthier. They have been tremendous at home under coach Jay Woodcroft. And they are getting strong goaltending of late from Mikko Koskinen. I’ll grab Edmonton in regulation.

Pick: Oilers -140

New York Rangers at Tampa Bay Lightning
Saturday, March 19– 8:00PM ET

Improbably, the Rangers are thriving despite leaning heavily on a half-dozen skaters and their Hart Trophy-candidate goaltender Igor Shesterkin. At 5-on-5, their numbers are abjectly bad. Their opponents are outscoring them 112-111, and they are allowing four more shots per 60 minutes. In more micro metrics, like expected goals and high-danger chances, they are doing poorly.

But their power play is outstanding (2nd best in the NHL) and Shesterkin is such a lock to win the Vezina Trophy that his odds are -450. Still, success hasn’t brought much security. The Pittsburgh Penguins just jumped the Rangers in points percentage, and with 21 games left, New York is battling not just for home-ice advantage in the first round but also to ward off the Washington Capitals, who are making a push to over take them in the standings. Saturday will be no picnic, as they get a Tampa Bay Lightning team who is thrilled to be playing in its own arena again.

The Lightning’s six-game road trip is over, and after Saturday, they play four more away from Amalie Arena. The Lightning went 3-3 in their journey West, and despite some ugly moments, including a three-game losing streak, they finished up with a 4-1 win over the Seattle Kraken.

Starting against Vancouver last Sunday, coach Jon Cooper split up Nikita Kucherov and Brayden Point, and the reshuffling of the first two lines seems to have worked. Against Vancouver, Kucherov’s and Point’s lines out shot their competition, and both lines scored against Seattle. On the defensive side of the puck, there were concerning moments, but the speed and passing had poetic flourishes.

I think three big questions will determine this game. First, can the Lightning manage the puck in a way that won’t get them burned? The Rangers have a dynamic rush attack, and considering how aggressively the Lightning defencemen are jumping into the forecheck and rush, how the F3 positions himself will be crucial. If the Lightning can’t recover, the Rangers will dice them with cross-seam passes in transition.

Second, can the Lightning get to the front of the net? Shesterkin is the NHL’s best goaltender this season, so beating him clean from farther than ten feet is unlikely. The Lightning would be wise to try to power the puck to the net from below the goal line, and if possible kick the puck out to the Tampa Bay defencemen, who will be wide open at the points. The Rangers like to cluster down low and overload on the puck, so the Lightning’s defencemen should be free to step up and hammer pucks. Still, if the Lightning can’t obstruct Shesterkin’s sightline, or get their sticks on the puck for a deflection, they are in danger of scoring one or less.

Finally, can the Lightning’s man-on-man defence withstand the Rangers’ offensive zone cycle? Rangers defenceman Adam Fox and forward Artermi Panarin work magic when they play catch and work the puck around the zone. If New York draws the Tampa Bay defencemen toward the point, can the Lightning forwards check their man below the circles? Chris Kreider is the NHL’s best player around the paint, and New York could find mismatches with sustained offensive zone time.

Fading Shesterkin is a tough pill to swallow, but in two of his last three starts he has allowed four goals. In the month of March, there are three goaltenders with five or more games played who have better Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx). All of which is to say, Shesterkin has been more mortal of late.

The Lightning have been off since Wednesday, and they have done extremely well with multiple days off. I think they grab a win at home before they go back on the road.

Pick: Lightning -185