Life is too short for regrets. With nearly half the NHL regular season set in stone, I have a few resolutions for 2023. Bet on the Bruins’ defence. Wager against the Predators’ offence. And fade the atrocious Canadiens. I plan to put my resolves into action this weekend.

Buffalo Sabres at Boston Bruins
Saturday, December 31 – 1:00 PM ET
The Buffalo Sabres are the most exciting team in hockey. They have the NHL’s best offence, averaging four goals a game. They are led by a coterie of giants with cannon shots, mostly notably Tage Thompson and Alex Tuch, who spearhead the first line. Intimidated opponents who backpedal in fear melt like the witch in the Wizard of Oz. But if any team in the NHL is equipped to defend Buffalo, it is the Bruins, who have the NHL’s best defence.

The way to defend speed and skill in open ice is through layers. The Bruins bring a confrontational mentality, defending the blue line vigorously. If Boston presses the puck-carriers and takes away the give-and-go’s and hook-and-ladder plays the Sabres employ to gain speed through the neutral zone, Buffalo will be forced to forecheck. Even if Buffalo slithers its way into the offensive zone while maintaining possession, Boston packs the middle of the ice, so the cross-seam passes and motion the Sabres like to use on the perimeter to open up the slot will be far more difficult to come by.

The Bruins enjoy a couple of key advantages in this matchup. First, the Sabres are below average in expected goals and high-danger chances against per 60 minutes and that is because of their young defensive group and the team’s struggles playing away from the puck. 

Second, the Sabres’ zone defence can get sloppy in its gaps and reads when they are chasing the puck for an extended time. Unfortunately for Buffalo, the Bruins are a top-five NHL team in shots per 60 minutes at 5-on-5, and that is because they are elite at retrieving the puck and sustaining offensive pressure.

The Bruins will be trying to spread the Sabres out by bringing a forward high to the point and forcing Buffalo to win box outs when Boston double-stacks screens in the slot. Through set plays on faceoffs and veteran know-how, the Bruins are experts at putting their skill players in space.

The Patrice Bergeron line will inevitably be matched against the Thompson line since Boston is at home, but the under I am pursuing is for Casey Mittelstadt. A former eighth overall pick from 2017, the 24-year-old center has fallen short of his lofty draft pedigree and ranks as a negative player in offensive and defensive rating on the website Evolving Hockey. Mittlestadt isn’t dynamic, and the ice tilts in the wrong direction when he is on it. 

Mittlestadt is on pace for a career high in points, but on a per game basis he checks a lot of the boxes of a player who should be held off the scoresheet. He has registered a point in 14 of 33 games this season. Currently, he is playing with Tyson Jost, another former top-ten pick who is a bust, and Victor Olofsson, who has a great shot but not much else. On Thursday night, Mittlestadt posted two goals, but both were on the second unit of the power play.

The Bruins have the second-best penalty kill in the NHL, so another goal on the man advantage seems unlikely, and with Mittlestadt’s struggles at 5-on-5, his line might be roadkill for Boston. The Bruins are coming into Saturday well rested, having last played Wednesday night. They have an 18-0-2 record at home this season and both goaltending options – Linus Ullmark or Jeremy Swayman – have played very well in December. The Sabres have won their last five games, but I think that streak ends Saturday afternoon. I like Mittlestadt’s under and the Bruins in regulation.

Picks: Bruins’ Regulation Line -150, Casey Mittlestadt U 0.5 points -150

Nashville Predators at Vegas Golden Knights
Saturday, December 31 – 3:00 PM ET
It’s an oversimplification, but even-strength goals occur in three ways. A player’s  dazzling skill achieves a goal through a shot or deke. A player capitalizes off a rebound in the slot. Or a tip or screen distracts and helps the puck elude the goaltender. Good teams in the NHL chart a course that seeks balance. Then there are the Predators, who practically live and die by the third option.

Perhaps no act is more indicative of Nashville’s dependence on door three than its pet faceoff play. When the Predators win the faceoff, their defenceman will buy time as a triple-stack screen forms and then he’ll shoot into it. Watch any NHL game and you’ll see both teams use two layers of screens in the slot. The Predators offence is tantamount to heaving the puck at the net and bodies and crossing your fingers. Unsurprisingly, the Predators rank 30th in goals per game.

The Vegas Golden Knights are an especially difficult foe for the Predators’ bland offence because Vegas absolutely loves to throw their bodies in front of pucks. Seriously! The Golden Knights lead the NHL in blocks and blocks per 60 minutes. Vegas is missing a lot of regulars who are sidelined with injuries, which means Nashville may find more room on entries and on the perimeter. But when it comes to protecting the house and taking away the middle of the ice, Vegas will be dedicated.

This makes me especially bearish on Nino Niederreiter’s scoring opportunities. Niederreiter is outside the first unit of the power play and is currently playing with Cody Glass and Tanner Jeannot. 

It’s clear that Predators coach John Hynes is using the trio as his new shutdown line, which means they’ll be facing whomever Nashville determines is the Golden Knights’ most dangerous line. With Niederreiter soaking up hard minutes and not benefiting from the man advantage time, I’m dubious he’ll see many scoring chances.

With both teams determined to win with their forecheck and by putting the puck behind the goal line, I’m not holding my breath for much scoring in this contest. With the Predators playing on Friday, a bad offence could be depleted when they play early the next day. I’ll happily fade Niederreiter in a checking role.

Pick: Nino Niederreiter U 0.5 points -160

Montreal Canadiens at Washington Capitals
Saturday, December 31 – 4:00 PM ET

There is a joke in American politics about the speed at which stress ages a president. Charisma and earnestness evaporate and the incumbent looks wizened and strained by the end of his term.

Don’t tell Martin St. Louis that coaching the Canadiens doesn’t carry quite the same import or pressure as the U.S. presidency. St. Louis’s initial happy-go-lucky demeanor has been replaced by a permanent look of distress. 

It’s hard to blame him. In the Canadiens’ last ten games, the most goals they have scored are three, and in that contest, against the Arizona Coyotes, it took extra time. With the month of December drawing to a close, Montreal has won four games this month and is in the midst of a four-game losing streak. Perhaps most worrisome, the Canadiens’ offensive engines are sputtering. Cole Caufield hasn’t collected a point in four games and Nick Suzuki hasn’t been on the scoresheet in five. 

On Saturday, the Canadiens travel to Washington D.C. to play a peeved Capitals squad. Washington had a two-goal lead deep into the second period on Thursday night against the Ottawa Senators, but it choked and lost in overtime. But even with this loss, December was a great month for the Capitals. They had two, five-game win streaks. They’ve overcome bad injury luck and become a stingy team, allowing over two goals only twice in their past eleven games before falling to the Senators. Even their advanced stats look good this month.

Against Ottawa, the Capitals surrendered chances when the Senators caught Washington’s forecheckers beneath the puck. Ottawa also had success when it pressured Washington on its breakout, as Ottawa spun the pucks that were relinquished into scoring chances. 

But it’s hard to imagine the Canadiens accomplishing either of these tactics. Montreal’s much discussed rookie defensive group looks like easy prey for the Capitals’ forecheck. Furthermore, Montreal has struggled to muster offence from its forecheck all season. 

One glimmer of hope for Montreal could be the counterattack. On the game-tying goal by the Senators’ Alex DeBrincat on Thursday night, a turnover by Evgeny Kuznetsov springboarded the Ottawa counterattack. The Habs’ counterattack can provide quick-strike chances, but they are predicated on the Capitals failing in their puck management. Which is a big if. 

Here is where I come down on this game. Caufield and Suzuki are too good to be held in scoring droughts forever. I suspect this is the game where they find their scoring touch again. But the rest of the bottom-nine is abysmal. With St. Louis putting Kirby Dach back with Caufield and Suzuki, I’m guessing the coach’s hope is that the first line drums up a goal and connects on the power play and Montreal claws out a win 2-1. My betting angle is to take unders for players outside the Canadiens’ first line (hello Josh Anderson and Christian Dvorak) and snatch up the Capitals’ 60-minute line because I believe Washington will win comfortably.

Picks: Capitals’ Regulation Line -195, Josh Anderson U 0.5 points -180, Christian Dvorak U 0.5 points -180