Watching the World Juniors led every person who follows hockey to the same conclusion: Drafting Connor Bedard will be franchise-altering. With the season nearly half over, teams far outside the playoff picture may start experimenting with their lineups in ways that might make them less competitive in the near term. 

Give young players an outsized opportunity. You need to make mistakes to get better! See if anyone on the AHL affiliate roster is being overlooked. Just doing our due diligence! Give skilled veterans who are injured more time to rest from injury. Don’t come back until you feel 100 percent! Any little edge to pile up losses increases the odds a tad to land Bedard. The teams outside the playoffs are at risk of getting their doors blown off every night.

Things are very different at the top. The Boston Bruins, Carolina Hurricanes, and Toronto Maple Leafs are the leaders in an extremely competitive Eastern Conference. This weekend has a couple of big mismatches in skill for teams with wildly different franchises incentives. I am stacking my picks accordingly. 

Carolina Hurricanes at Columbus Blue Jackets
Saturday, January 7 – 4:00 PM ET
Win 11 consecutive games and you’re entitled to a little grace. The Hurricanes’ loss to the New York Rangers Tuesday was understandable because the Rangers will be in the postseason. The loss to the Nashville Predators on Thursday was more irritating as the Hurricanes outshot Nashville 67-25. 

Yes, you read that right. The Hurricanes had 67 shots and lost! Juuse Saros posted a comical 3.13 Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) as he was pelted with shots almost non-stop for three straight frames.

The Blue Jackets snapped a seven-game losing streak last Saturday when they bested the Chicago Blackhawks 4-1, but they seem to be gearing up for another long string of defeats. On Tuesday and Thursday, they got pasted by the Ottawa Senators and Washington Capitals, losing 4-0 and 6-2, respectively. 

In a futile effort, Columbus coach Brad Larsen has been juggling the lines, and on Thursday night he split up Johnny Gaudreau and Patrik Laine. But the problems for this team are greater than a lineup tweak. The Blue Jackets have a one-dimensional offence; they entered Thursday night with the highest percentage of goals scored off the rush, which sounds positive but underscores that this team can’t score off the cycle to save its life.  

Even the rush offence has limitations. With the defensive group decimated by injuries, an opponent almost always needs merely to stop the first wave of players because the defencemen are not threats to jump in from the back end. Against Washington, the Blue Jackets created chances when they bypassed the Capitals’ forecheck or when they forced turnovers in the neutral zone, giving them a sliver of quick-strike potency. But without a defenceman driving the middle or staggering the rush and making it a four-man look, the job of the opponent is much easier in transition defence.

The Blue Jackets scored first on Thursday night, and the game was competitive for a while. Columbus completely unraveled by the end of the second stanza when the Capitals’ forecheck started to hum. With tired legs, the Blue Jackets’ defensive coverage became a confused mess and they struggled to reclaim possession. 

None of this bodes well against a Hurricanes’ forecheck that is fast, aggressive, and uses shooting as a lever to access the interior. Compounding these concerns is how the neutral zone becomes a booby trap, where bad puck management springboards counterattack looks. Even in their loss to the Predators, the Hurricanes’ neutral-zone counterattack game was dangerous.

Jack Roslovic is a capable puck-transporter and playmaker. But if the Blue Jackets are exhausting themselves trying to leave their own end and being forced to chip and chase on entries, I think Roslovic’s line will have a very difficult time worming its way into the middle of the ice or manufacturing looks off the cycle. 

The Hurricanes are one of the best teams in the advanced stats and the Blue Jackets are one of the worst, and Columbus having home ice doesn’t shrink the gulf between these two teams in the standings or in the underlying numbers. Coming off two straight losses, I like Carolina in regulation and Roslovic to be held without a point.

Picks: Hurricanes’ Regulation Line -170, Jack Roslovic U 0.5 points -125 

Detroit Red Wings at Toronto Maple Leafs
Saturday, January 7 – 7:00 PM ET
The holiday season and start of 2023 has been sapped of cheer for the Toronto Maple Leafs. They have played the underachieving St. Louis Blues twice and only managed a split. Their vaunted defence has allowed four or more goals in four out of five contests. And they just lost consecutive games at home. 

All season the Maple Leafs have been touted as playing a style more suitable for postseason hockey, but partly this should be credited to goaltending that has exceeded expectations. Before the holiday break, Matt Murray and Ilya Samsonov were just outside the top ten in GSAx. However, in the handful of games since the holiday break, both have been among the worst goaltenders in the NHL in that same metric.

Fortunately, Detroit coming to town should offer Toronto’s goaltenders some low-hanging fruit. Detroit has the fifth worst offensive expected goals and fourth worst high-danger chances at 5-on-5. The Red Wings do have offensive talent, but the salient question is how much they’ll have the puck to apply pressure.

Toronto will look to use the stretch pass and speed through the neutral zone to push the puck up ice. But can the Red Wings establish their forecheck and test Toronto below the goal line? Furthermore, can they exploit the Leafs’ aggressive offensive posture, like the Seattle Kraken did on Thursday night when Jared McCann flew the zone to capitalize off Toronto having four skaters below the dots?

With goaltender Ville Husso playing Friday night, I think Magnus Hellberg and the Red Wings’ defence could have a nightmarish night against Toronto. In four games, Hellberg is a negative in GSAx and he’ll be facing a Maple Leafs team that is very adept at setting up their shooters in the high slot. Moreover, I don’t love Detroit’s man-to-man defence chasing Toronto through picks as the Leafs orchestrate their looks in the offensive zone. I love the Maple Leafs in 60 minutes.

Pick: Maple Leafs’ Regulation Line -175

Boston Bruins at San Jose Sharks
Saturday, January 7 – 10:30 PM ET
Every team that faces Boston can relate to a familiar problem: How do you create offence against these guys? The Bruins have a wide lead in terms of the NHL’s top goals against per game. Bruins goaltender Linus Ullmark is the favorite to win the Vezina Trophy on sportsbooks. In expected goals and high-danger chances against, they are among the best in the league. The Bruins’ gaps are suffocating, and they are physical. Playing the Bruins is a headache (pun intended). 

However, despite losing 5-2, the Los Angeles Kings outshot the Bruins at 5-on-5 Thursday night, and the score belies how close this game was. The contest was important for future opponents because the Kings’ game plan was a noble example of how to disturb the Bruins’ stingy defence. On Saturday, San Jose would be wise to attack Boston in a similar fashion.

The Kings identified that the Bruins’ recognition on defensive reads in tight around the net can be delayed. On the Phillip Danault goal, the Kings capitalized off a feed across the crease after a slow switch. Later on, Anze Kopitar nearly jammed in a goal on a drive to the net when Derek Forbort was a tad sluggish locking him up as he drove to the net. The Bruins play a zone defence in their own end, so figuring out different angles to wedge into an area at the point of a Bruins defender’s release is a worthy plan of attack.

But even with the Sharks’ recent strong numbers in the advanced stats (they rank fourth in the NHL since December 1st in high-danger chances percentage), I have a hard time imagining they will vanquish Boston. 

There are two specific areas where I think the Bruins will have tremendous success: on the Sharks’ forecheck and on the counterattack. The Sharks will go full bore on the forecheck, with their defenceman pinching even when he doesn’t have support. Boston’s wings are as good as any in the league at making that pass from the half-wall, and with the Bruins’ defencemen emboldened under coach Jim Montgomery to join the rush and help pave the center lane drive, I think San Jose is ripe to be exploited in transition off a failed forecheck. We could be looking at a Hampus Lindholm goal in this game.

Boston will also get counterattack chances because of San Jose’s reckless passes when trying to carry out a quick up or just in initiating their transition. If the Bruins’ defencemen have support and can choke off those stretch plays, they should spark rush chances the other way with San Jose’s forecheckers caught beneath the puck. 

With Jeremy Swayman having played Thursday night, it is extremely likely Ullmark will get the start Saturday. With a likely Vezina Trophy finalist in goal for Boston, I think the Sharks – who rank just outside the bottom ten in goals per game – will struggle to find the back of the net. 

The Sharks’ options in goal are two of the worst in GSAx in the NHL this season. I choose the Bruins in regulation and want to further invest in the Bruins’ defence by taking Kevin Labanc, a second-unit power-play man for the Sharks, for under a point. I’m also taking the slightly scarier option of Erik Karlsson under 1.5 points because I’m skeptical he can post a two-point game against a Bruins team that looks set to allow one or less goals.

Picks: Bruins’ Regulation Line -160, Kevin Labanc U 0.5 points -130, Erik Karlsson U 1.5 points -160