The New York Islanders have spent much of this postseason playing from behind, and in Game 6 they were staring at a 2-0 Tampa Bay Lightning lead deep into the second period. Then the Lightning charitably offered them a second chance by failing to stack the neutral zone shortly after doubling their lead, and the Islanders capitalized on the miscalculation. 

So, flawed, but resilient! And in fairness, a little luck came New York’s way, from the missed Scott Mayfield cross-check on Nikita Kucherov to the blatant Mathew Barzal hook on the Jordan Eberle goal.

Now it is Game 7, and the Lightning are banged up and possibly missing Kucherov and Erik Cernak for the elimination game. But while it may be tempting to fade the favourite as a value play, there are more reasons to tack toward the home team after a loss.

New York Islanders at Tampa Bay Lightning
Saturday, June 25 – 8:00PM ET

The injury to Kucherov robs the Lightning – and viewers -- of one of hockey’s creative geniuses on the offensive end, which is a shame. Strategically, the absence of Kucherov has harmful trickle-down effects on how Tampa Bay configures its forward group. For instance, in Game 7, how does Jon Cooper approach the task of slowing down Barzal? 

Through six games, Cooper has looked to use Anthony Cirelli to tamp down Barzal’s dynamism, and it has mostly worked. In 22:37 of ice time, Barzal and linemate Eberle have been outshot when on the ice against Cirelli. New York has allowed two goals while scoring zero in that head-to-head matchup. 

But that luxury was in part afforded by having Kucherov on the first line with Point. When Kucherov got injured in Game 6, Cirelli saw a lot of ice time with Point, playing in Kucherov’s stead. If Cirelli plays with Point in Game 7, Cooper may try the Yanni Gourde line against Barzal. In 14 minutes of ice time against Barzal this series, this line has been outshot and out-chanced, but hasn’t allowed any goals. 

To score without Kucherov, the Lightning will need a balanced attack against an Islanders team that takes away the middle of the ice as well as any team in the NHL not from Montreal. New York is well aware that, when Tampa Bay races through the neutral zone, the Islanders are practically begging for a bad outcome. As a result, the Islanders have asked their defencemen to try to hold the blue line and force dump-ins. When the Lightning destroyed the Islanders in Game 5, the Islanders defencemen consistently found themselves not initiating contact with the Lightning’s puck-carrying forward but also not sagging. Lesson learned: Cede the middle ground to the Lightning and they will trample you.

Goaltender Semyon Varlamov has been inconsistent in this series, and one weakness Tampa Bay has looked to exploit is his clumsy handling of the puck on breakouts. Varlamov will try to delegate retrieving to his defencemen. But Tampa Bay has found success creating turnovers with the weak-side forechecker. In Game 2, Kucherov pressured Adam Pelech into a turnover that resulted in a Point goal. 

In Game 5, Point sealed off the boards and buried a shot with Pelech on his hip. Even without Kucherov, the Point line has the advantage of Ondrej Palat’s forechecking skills, as he is especially proficient at funneling Islanders defencemen who are carrying the puck into one of Palat’s teammates. Losing Kucherov makes the Point line less imaginative, but when Cirelli joined the line, it became evident that a simplified approach of shoveling the puck toward the net and forcing one-on-one battles can work. 

The playbook for the Islanders shouldn’t be a mystery. They are going to want to sap Tampa Bay’s energy through an endless cycle, force turnovers in the neutral zone and then strike off counterattacks, and let Barzal cook. The first two pillars of the Islanders’ platform are contingent on how well the Lightning exit their end and traverse the neutral zone. The Lightning have exhibited a diversified approach when doing both.

Where the Lightning find themselves in trouble is on short passes in their own end. Blake Coleman’s gaffe in the last game is the latest example. When trouble is brewing, they have leaned on area passes to punt the problem into a less dangerous zone. 

When the Islanders are in their defensive posture in the middle of the ice, it lets their defencemen step up to halt Tampa Bay carrying the puck through the neutral zone with speed. The Lightning’s response is to try to use bump plays to elude the Islanders defencemen, putting pressure on New York’s forwards to provide adequate back pressure over a longer distance. But the Bolts’ gold standard is the stretch pass, which is why the Cirelli goal from Game 6 should be the template. 

In this sequence, Point knocked Brock Nelson off the puck behind the net, and Palat slid down to collect the loose puck around the goal line. As Palat looked up ice, Cirelli had flown the zone and got a step on the Islanders defencemen. In this instance, the Islanders’ three-man forecheck worked against them as it isolated the Islanders’ defencemen as Cirelli charged toward them with speed. 

The Cirelli goal underscores that the Islanders are comfortable with their defencemen playing confrontationally in the neutral zone to stymie the rush, but they don’t want them sliding down too far below the circles to squash the outlet. On the Cirelli goal, Ryan Pulock pulled back, and Palat had plenty of time and space. Pulock’s decision gave Cirelli the room to accelerate and find a lane to the outside.

But the offensive zone doesn’t have to be a house of mirrors for the Islanders. The Lightning like to overload on the puck along the boards, and as a result, that will leave players wide open. On Pulock’s goal in Game 1, that is precisely what happened. Identifying the overload and passing out of it gives the Islanders a temporary numbers advantage.

Furthermore, officiating has been a divisive issue in this series, but depending on how the game is being called, the Islanders may look to harness off-the-puck interference to open up lanes for their puck-carriers, especially given their advantage in the faceoff circle.

These teams are really close at 5-on-5 and the numbers reflect that. The Lightning have slightly more shots at 5-on-5 but are slightly worse in expected goals and high-danger chances. This means goaltending could be the deciding factor, and boy is Vasilevskiy playing at an elite level, posting his best Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) of any series for Tampa Bay in this playoffs. Meanwhile, Varlamov is dabbling in the negatives in GSAx. 

The Lightning are hot-tempered, and lack of discipline has been a hallmark for them the last several seasons. But if Tampa Bay can keep a cool head, I like them to advance to the Stanley Cup at -160 moneyline.  

Pick: Lightning -160