2022 NL East Preview: A three-horse race?

At this time just over a month ago, it didn’t look like we were going to make it to an early April start to the season. Fresh off the latest round of failed collective bargaining agreement negotiations, commissioner Rob Manfred announced MLB was cancelling the first two series of the season and pushing back Opening Day a week.

The more days that went by without the league and MLB Players Association reaching a deal, the more games that would be cancelled. Over the course of a few long days, it looked like no longer like a question of when we would get baseball in 2022, but if.

Then, somehow, someway, on the 99th day of the lockout, they figured things out. The season – all 162 games no less – was saved. And we couldn’t be happier.

With Opening Day just three days away, here is a team-by-team look at the National League East division, which could churn out three pretty good clubs.

Atlanta Braves

2021 Record: 88-73

Key Additions: 1B Matt Olson, C Manny Pina, OF Alex Dickerson, P Kirby Yates, P Collin McHugh

Key Losses: 1B Freddie Freeman, INF/OF Johan Camargo, OF Jorge Soler, OF Christian Pache, OF Joc Pederson, P Chris Martin, P Josh Tomlin, P Richard Rodriguez

The Braves are a good lesson that the MLB season is long and a lot can change. Atlanta was 52-54 at the end of July but finished the season 88-73 for their fourth straight division title and eventually defeated the Houston Astros in six games to win their first World Series title since 1995.

But the Braves were at the centre of possibly the most shocking news of the off-season as they could not agree to an extension with superstar Freddie Freeman and elected to acquire All-Star first baseman Matt Olson in a deal with the Oakland Athletics while Freeman remained a free agent. Braves general manager Alex Anthopoulos fought back tears when announcing the acquisition of Olson because it effectively spelled the departure of one of the franchise’s most beloved players ever.

Still, Olson isn’t much of a downgrade, if he could even be considered one at all.

The case for: Freeman and Jorge Soler were the only two real core pieces the Braves lost. Switching Freeman with Olson should be a seamless transition and adding Ronald Acuna Jr. back after missing half of last season with an ACL tear and the Braves should be right there to contend again in 2022.

The case against: The New York Yankees were the last team to repeat as World Series champions when they did it for the third year in a row in 2000. The year after the Braves last won it all they made it back to the Fall Classic but lost to the Yankees in 1996. And as great as the Braves were in 2021, they had the fewest wins of any playoff team. Winning once is hard enough, doing it twice is nearly impossible.

New York Mets

2021 Record: 77-85

Key Additions: OF Starling Marte, OF Mark Canha, INF Eduardo Escobar, P Max Scherzer, P Adam Ottavino, P Chris Bassitt, P Joely Roriguez

Key Losses: OF Michael Conforto, INF Javier Baez, INF Jonathan Villar, P Noah Syndergaard, P Marcus Stroman, P Miguel Castro

The Mets are as all-in as all-in can be. They have the highest 26-man roster payroll in all of baseball ($243.5 million according to Spotrac) and gave Max Scherzer a three-year, $130 million deal that makes him the highest-paid player in history in terms of average annual value. Owner Steve Cohen hasn’t been shy about spending, so much so that the new collective bargaining agreement has a fourth-tier competitive balance tax colloquially named the ‘Cohen Tax’ which he’s said the team will “probably” surpass.

But will investment equal results? The Mets couldn’t hit in 2021, averaging the fourth-fewest runs in baseball and causing Cohen to publicly call out his hitters as “unproductive” in August. There’s no doubt the offence is improved with the additions of Starling Marte, Mark Canha and Eduardo Escobar. And don’t forget Robinson Cano and his 2,624 career hits, who’s returning from a year-long suspension after testing positive for PEDs a second time.

The case for: One reason the Mets couldn’t a season ago was Francisco Lindor having the worst offensive season of his career. Lindor is the prime age of 28, has all sorts of protection around him in the middle of the order and finished the season a lot stronger than he started it. If he bounces back and the new pieces fit, the Mets’ lineup could go from major weakness to major strength in 2022.

The case against: Last year’s Mets didn’t handle adversity well. They spent 103 days in first place but finished eight games under .500. With the team sliding down the standings in late August, players reacted to boos with a ‘thumbs down’ celebration that wasn’t exactly adored by an already disappointed fan base. The expectations will be even higher this year and Buck Showalter’s team will have to handle them. Oh, and Jacob deGrom is going to miss significant time after an MRI revealed a stress reaction in his right shoulder. He's undoubtedly one of the game's best when healthy, but this is the second year in a row injuries have taken centre stage.

Miami Marlins

2021 Record: 67-95

Key Additions: C Jacob Stallings, INF Joey Wendle, OF Avisail Garcia, OF Jorge Soler

Key Losses: C Jorge Alfaro, P Zach Thompson

The Marlins certainly didn’t lose much during the off-season. On the field, that is.

Optimism was high when Derek Jeter bought a stake in the team and took over as CEO in July of 2017. The Marlins did a lot of good things during the Hall-of-Fame shortstop’s tenure, including retooling the organization’s farm system, making the playoffs in 2020 and hiring Kim Ng as the first female general manager in ‘Big Four’ North American men’s sports history. But Jeter’s abrupt departure from the organization at the end of February left questions.

Outside of that lone playoff appearance in 2020, the Marlins have not had a winning season since 2009. The offence was dismal, finishing 29th in runs scored, 28th in home runs and 25th in offensive fWAR.

The case for: The Marlins used 18 different starters in 2021 but finished in the top half of the league in ERA (4.08) and have some really nice young rotation pieces. Plus, Jazz Chisholm looks like he has star potential if he can cut down on the strikeouts and find his way on base a little more.

The case against: The additions of outfielders Avisail Garcia and Jorge Soler will help Miami’s offence. Soler is fresh off winning the World Series MVP Award with the Braves but hit just .192 in 94 games with the Kansas City Royals before being dealt to Atlanta at the trade deadline. He led the AL in home runs (48) in 2019 but also led the league in strikeouts (178). Which Soler are the Marlins getting, and will it be enough to fix a lineup with all sorts of issues?

Philadelphia Phillies

2021 Record: 82-80

Key Additions: OF Kyle Schwarber, OF Nick Castellanos, P Brad Hand, P Corey Knebel

Key Losses: P Ian Kennedy, P Hector Neris, P Archie Bradley

The Phillies have spent more money than just about anyone the past few off-seasons. And what do they have to show for it? After five straight playoff appearances and a World Series title from 2007 to 2011, Philadelphia owns the longest postseason drought in the National League and second longest in baseball behind the Seattle Mariners.

They spent big this winter once again, signing two of the better outfield bats in free agency in Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos. Add those two to a lineup already featuring a number of big bats including 2022 NL MVP Bryce Harper and the Phillies should score plenty. But will their bullpen be able to hold leads their offence gives them? The Phillies were tied for first in blown saves (34) third-last in bullpen fWAR (1.1) and sixth-worst in reliever ERA (4.60) in 2021.

The case for: Ranger Suarez was a godsend for the Phillies last season and proved he belongs in the rotation, posting a 1.51 ERA in 12 starts to close out the season. If he can be as good – or even half as good – it would give the Phillies an elite trio at the top of their starting-five. We know they can hit, so a bounce-back season from the bullpen and a reliable rotation would make the Phillies legitimate contenders.

The case against: Philadelphia has had injury problems in recent years and it’s continued this spring in the form of shoulder pain with ace Zack Wheeler. The right-hander finished second in Cy Young voting in 2021 but threw a career-high 213.1 innings. Injuries to aces tend to have workload and performance ripple effects for the entire staff, so Wheeler missing significant time would not be welcome news.

Washington Nationals

2021 Record: 65-97

Key Additions: DH Nelson Cruz, 2B Cesar Hernandez, P Steve Cishek, P Sean Doolittle

Key Losses: 1B Ryan Zimmerman, C Alex Avila

After winning the World Series in 2019, the Nationals have fallen off a cliff, combining to go 91-131 over the past two seasons. They are very much rebuilding, best exemplified by the blockbuster deal of Max Scherzer and Trea Turner to the Los Angeles Dodgers last July.

The return from that deal and a few other intriguing young pieces set to see time should give fans reason to be optimistic toward the future, but the team’s roster as is isn’t projected for many wins this season. Fangraphs has the Nats tracking 65 wins and gives them just a 1.8 per cent shot at the playoffs.

In all honestly, most important for Washington in 2022 might not be what happens between the white lines, but getting Juan Soto to sign on one. The 23-year-old is as big a star as anyone and is going to need a new deal before the fall of 2024. Reports indicate he rejected the Nationals’ 13-year, $350 million deal prior to the lockout and might be on track for the largest deal in North American sports history.

The case for: A few improvements around the edges of the roster – namely the addition of Nelson Cruz, who refuses to stop hitting – should help the Nationals get a little better, but their ceiling still seems quite limited. Soto has finished fifth and second, respectively, the last two seasons in MVP voting and it will be fun to see the kind of success he has in Year 5.

The case against: The overall roster, the strong division, the injury woes of Stephen Strasburg, the ineffectiveness of Patrick Corbin… there’s a lot here to be skeptical about. Winning often comes at a price and the Nationals are paying up.