It was another incredibly profitable weekend of NFL betting for online sportsbooks, and another miserable one for the betting public.

For the second straight week, each of the top-three most heavily bet teams to cover the spread (Titans, Chiefs, Jets) all came up short. In fact, the only one of the top-five most popular bet teams that covered was the Steelers.

Tonight’s Monday Night Football matchup between the Saints and the Buccaneers is the public’s last chance to get some of their hard earn dollars back before we turn the calendar to Week 14.

This contest hasn’t drawn the same amount of interest as some of the other Week 13 games, but it has seen major line movement.

Teams: New Orleans Saints vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Line: Buccaneers -3
Total: 41.5
*Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Tampa Bay opened up as 6-point favourites, but that number didn’t last long. It’s steadily come down throughout the week, in large part due to sharp action, and now sits at just a field goal.

At the current number, there’s been a bit of a buy back on the Buccaneers, as they’re currently drawing 69% of the spread tickets and 61% of the spread money.

Total wise, the over/under is down from 42.5 to 41.5, and there’s an argument to be made that even that is too high.

Saints vs Buccaneers Betting Analysis

New Orleans has had their way with Tom Brady and the Bucs in the majority of the matchups they’ve had since Brady got to Tampa Bay.
The Saints are 4-1 in five regular season meetings, holding Brady and Co. to an average of 14.6 points in those five tilts.

A big reason for their success is that they’ve been able to generate significant pressure by rushing just four, and dropping seven back in coverage. Of course, that was when New Orleans boasted a fierce pass rush - which they no longer do.

The Saints rank 28th in pressure rate this season and 20th in coverage per Pro Football Focus. We know the Bucs want nothing more than to throw the ball, as they rank sixth in the league in pass rate over expectation.

Brady is a completely different QB when kept clean versus under duress, and if New Orleans can’t get home tonight, he should be able to pick them apart.

TB12 boasts a 70.4% completion rate and a 14-to-2 TD-to-INT rate in a clean pocket this season, compared to a 42.3% completion rate and zero touchdowns under pressure.

On the other side of the ball, the Saints offence has been horrific in recent weeks with Andy Dalton under center. They couldn’t muster  a single point last week versus the 49ers, and have scored 13 or fewer points in three of their last four games.

New Orleans enters play ranked 24th on offence per DVOA, and hasn’t won on the road since Week 1 in Atlanta. 

If you’re trying to talk yourself into Dalton and the Saints offence ahead of tonight’s game, there is at least some reason for optimism. Tampa Bay’s secondary has been decimated by injury, and the Bucs are expected to be missing three of their top-five corners.

Saints vs Buccaneers Trends and Best Bets

As far as the trends go, neither team is going to stand out from a value perspective. New Orleans is 0-5 against the spread on the road this season, while Tampa Bay has failed to cover in all five games following a loss.

Brady meanwhile, is 2-14 ATS in his past 16 primetime contests, including 2-11 against the number with Tampa Bay.

To play devil’s advocate, the Bucs were favored by more than a field goal in nearly all of those games. At -6 there would be no reason to back Tampa Bay, however, the hate has now gone too far.

The Bucs still grade out 10th in overall DVOA, 15 spots higher than the Saints. Brady has a ton of excellent receiving options to work with, and given the lack of pass rush shown by New Orleans this season, we simply can’t expect them to shut down Tampa Bay for 60 minutes.

These two teams played to a 20-10 Buccaneers victory in Week 2, and another low-scoring Tampa Bay victory is likely on deck.

The under is 9-2 in Bucs games this season, and 35-22-1 in divisional matchups this season.

Best Bets: Buccaneers -3, Under 41.5, Chris Godwin Over 6.5 receptions