The most anticipated game of the early NFL season is here.

The reigning champion Kansas City Chiefs clash with reigning MVP Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens on Monday Night Football live on TSN.

Both teams enter play with perfect 2-0 records.

It’s the Ravens, not the champs, who are currently 3.5-point favourites. Baltimore has covered easily in each of its first two outings, outscoring its opponents by an NFL-best 49 points combined.

Meanwhile, Kansas City narrowly squeezed by the Los Angeles Chargers last Sunday, needing overtime to pull out a three-point victory.

These two teams have met twice in the Patrick Mahomes-Lamar Jackson era. Mahomes, the 2018 MVP, has won both matchups.

Teams: Kansas City Chiefs vs Baltimore Ravens
Line: Ravens -3.5
Total: 55.0

Mahomes the Road Warrior

Mahomes has had success against the Ravens in his career, completing 69 per cent of his passes for 751 yards and five touchdowns. He’s fresh off his 19th career 300-yard passing game.

Believe it or not, he has actually performed better away from Arrowhead.

Mahomes’ average yards per game climbs from 287.1 in his own building to 312.2 on the road. His average yards per attempt, passer rating and TD rate are all higher, as is his rushing yards per contest. He’s lost just four times in 18 career starts away from home and his favourite target is in a great spot on Monday.

Travis Kelce has hung 15 catches, 166 yards and a score on Baltimore over the past two years. Plus, the Ravens have struggled to defend tight ends in 2020. They’ve allowed 15 catches to Kelce’s position for 148 yards and two TDs.

Baltimore has erased some top wide receivers in the first two weeks, but will have its hands full with Tyreek Hill. The 4.29 speedster has hit pay dirt in both games this season and torched the Ravens secondary for 139 receiving yards the lone time he faced them.

Chiefs Can’t Stop the Run

On the other side of the football, Baltimore’s elite run game is set up to smash. Jackson and his trio of running backs have combined to produce 170.5 rushing yards per game so far this season, while the Chiefs are Pro Football Focus’ 25th-graded run defense.

Last week, the Chargers racked up 183 yards on the ground versus Kansas City. Baltimore punched in a rushing score at Houston, after scoring twice on the ground in Week 1. The scary part about the Ravens run game is that Jackson has yet to be fully deployed.

Baltimore has built such big leads in both games, that Jackson has only carried the ball 23 times. With Monday’s contest projected to be a close affair, expect Lamar to get loose early and often. In five career prime time games, Jackson has rushed for 424 yards and two TDs.

His passing numbers in those games aren’t too shabby either, throwing for 1,113 yards and 13 touchdowns.

Final Verdict

The look-ahead line for this game was Baltimore -2.5, but moved to -3 after another blowout win over the Texans in Week 2. It’s since moved another half point, off the key number three, which opens up some value for Kansas City.

The Chiefs can go toe-to-toe with any offence in football. Although the Ravens run game has the biggest matchup advantage of the night, it can only be deployed to its full extent if Baltimore jumps out to a lead.

We saw in the playoffs in each of the last two years that the Ravens are not built to play from behind. Meanwhile, Kansas City has the aerial attack to make up ground in a hurry. With rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire now in the mix, they also have a run game to grind down the opposition.

Pick: Kansas City Chiefs +3.5

Fantasy Sleeper

If Sammy Watkins sits again, get Mecole Hardman into your lineups. The 4.33 burner is a big play waiting to happen, and should draw single coverage with Hill and Kelce occupying the majority of the defence’s attention. Hardman caught only 26 passes in limited playing time during his rookie season, but turned six of those receptions into touchdowns.