Week 16 in the NFL concludes on Monday Night Football with a battle of two teams fighting for their playoff lives.

The 7-7 Miami Dolphins visit the 7-7 New Orleans Saints as a three-point favourite.

Unfortunately for football fans in New Orleans, this Saints team isn’t going to look much like the squad they’re accustomed to seeing.

New Orleans has already ruled out 21 players due to COVID-19.

In fact, there’s a strong possibility that the Saints won’t even be able to field a full roster.

Miami Dolphins at New Orleans Saints
Line: Dolphins -3
Total: 37

Saints extremely short-handed

An NFL team dresses 48 players on game day and the Saints are down to exactly 48 available players at the moment, with three of those players being listed as questionable.

Their top two quarterbacks, Taysom Hill and Trevor Siemian, are among those already confirmed out, as are four defensive starters.

The Saints are reportedly ready to give the keys to the offence to rookie Ian Book, who’s been inactive for the first 14 games of the season. Book was a three-year starter at Notre Dame and a fourth-round selection of New Orleans in the most recent NFL draft.

He put up mediocre college stats, completing 63.8 per cent of his passes with 72 touchdowns and 20 interceptions, but the fact that he couldn’t beat out Hill and Siemian for playing time is a concern.

Hill has spent most his NFL playing nearly every offensive position but quarterback, while Siemian is a journeyman backup.

The Saints were reportedly so desperate for quarterback talent this week that they reached out to both Drew Brees and Philip Rivers to gauge their interest about a potential return.

The COVID outbreak comes at the worst possible time for New Orleans as they are right in the middle of a playoff push. The Saints are fresh off back-to-back victories, including a shutout over Tom Brady and the Buccaneers, and are currently just outside the postseason picture.

Miami making moves

The Dolphins, meanwhile, can move into the final AFC playoff spot with a victory on Monday night, which is remarkable given how they started 2021.

Miami dropped seven of its first eight games but has roared back with six straight wins.

As is the case with New Orleans, the Dolphins are dealing with COVID issues of their own. They currently have eight players on COVID reserve, but just one of those players is a starter (Albert Wilson).

After missing last week due to COVID, wide receiver Jaylen Waddle is set to return, and is just 16 catches away from setting the record for most receptions by a rookie.

Miami has outscored its opponents by 68 points during their win streak, claiming victory by at least seven points in each of those outings.

They’ve held five of their past six opponents to 17 points or less and have climbed all the way up to 12th on defence per DVOA.

You could make the argument that they’ve benefited from a soft schedule, as only one of their opponents during their streak has had a record above .500.

However, they can only beat the teams on their schedule, and a matchup in prime time versus a team ravaged by COVID and starting its fourth quarterback of the season is about as favourable as it gets.

Best Bets

It’s never ideal to lay points on the road, but the Dolphins have performed very well against the spread away from home this season. They’re 3-1-1 ATS in five road contests and have covered in five of their past six games overall.

With New Orleans lacking talent at the wide receiver position, look for them to get Alvin Kamara involved heavily in the passing game. Kamara has at least 25 receiving yards in six of his 10 games this season and has averaged 6.8 targets over his past six contests.

Expect a lot of Book check-downs to Kamara in this one.

Picks: Miami Dolphins -3, Alvin Kamara Over 22.5 Receiving Yards