The 2020 National Football League season is here. Seven months after the Kansas City Chiefs won Super Bowl LIV, we are about to go from zero to 100 in a hurry with no preseason action before Week 1. The lack of exhibition games means a lot less to work with for our 2020 forecasts. At The TSN Edge, we decided to take a closer look at the sports betting information available for all 32 teams in order to get a better idea of what those numbers indicate we can expect for this upcoming season. Here is the latest instalment of our division preview series, focusing on the AFC South. 

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

AFC South Champion Odds: +120

Team Win Total: 8.5 Wins 

Let’s begin this conversation with Phillip Rivers. The first thing I noticed when looking over the numbers was that his regular season passing yards prop is set at 3,900.5 yards. That number is interesting for a couple of reasons. First, he’s thrown for at least 4,000 yards in 11 of his past 12 seasons. Second, Rivers averaged 4,488 yards per season when Colts head coach Frank Reich was his offensive coordinator with the Chargers from 2014-16 – he had at least 570 pass attempts in all three seasons. He also averaged 31 touchdown passes per season with Reich as his OC. Finally, Rivers is coming off a season in which he threw for 4,615 yards on 591 attempts – the second-highest pass attempt total of his career. So why is his passing yards prop total set so low? Rivers, who will turn 39 in December, has made 224 consecutive starts in his career – the longest active streak and second-longest streak all-time behind only Brett Favre (297). The Colts didn’t give him a one-year, $25 million deal so that he could hand the ball off to Jonathan Taylor and Marlon Mack all season. I didn’t like the Rivers signing when it happened, and I still don’t love it. However, Rivers is clearly a known commodity to Reich and one that he has to feel confident in to lead Indianapolis back to the playoffs in 2020. The Colts should throw a lot more than they did with Jacoby Brissett at quarterback last season. As long as he stays healthy, Rivers should be able to deliver at least 4,000 passing yards. 

TENNESSEE TITANS

AFC South Champion Odds: +165

Team Win Total: 8.5 Wins 

I’m not here to rain on anyone’s parade, but the Derrick Henry hype train heading into this season scares me. We all remember how the 6-foot-3, 247-pound running back powered the Titans offence into the playoffs and past the New England Patriots and Baltimore Ravens before falling just short against the Kansas City Chiefs in AFC Championship game. Does anybody want to talk about his regular season performance? In first nine weeks of the season, Henry reached the 100-yard mark once. He was held under 50 rushing yards twice over that span. Through the first nine games, he averaged 3.93 yards per carry while rushing for 644 yards and 3.93 yards. The final six regular season games were another story. The veteran back averaged an astounding 6.45 yards per carry while rushing for 896 yards. Henry was held to under 100 rushing yards just once over that stretch, which was punctuated by his memorable 211-yard performance in a Week 17 win over the Houston Texans. Henry finished the season with 1,540 yards and 16 touchdowns on a career-high 303 rushing attempts - 88 more than his previous high. Henry is the favourite to lead the NFL in both rushing yards (+600) and rushing touchdowns (+400). He’s also in the mix to win NFL Offensive Player of the Year at +2000. In order for those things to happen, Henry would need to pick up where he left off last year with an equal volume of carries and an equal performance level over a full 16 games. I’m not sold either of those happens. Tennessee released veteran Dion Lewis, but used a third round pick on rookie running back Darrynton Evans to spell Henry. Considering they just gave him a four-year deal this offseason, there is a good chance that the Titans will be cognizant of Henry’s workload and make an effort to keep him fresh for when it matters the most down the stretch and in the playoffs. My advice: Proceed with caution when it comes to the elevated expectations for Henry in 2020.

HOUSTON TEXANS

AFC South Champion Odds: +325

Team Win Total: 7.5 Wins 

The last time we saw the Houston Texans was their crushing 51-31 AFC Divisional round loss to the Kansas City Chiefs. Houston led 24-0 early in the second quarter of that game. They trailed 28-24 at the half. The offseason didn’t provide much reprieve for Texans fans. DeAndre Hopkins was traded to the Arizona Cardinals. Houston acquired Brandin Cooks and Randall Cobb in an effort to replace the hole left by Hopkins’ exit after he recorded 2,737 receiving yards and 18 touchdowns over the last two seasons. The Texans locked up quarterback Deshaun Watson with a massive four-year contract extension, so it will be interesting to see how quickly he is able to develop chemistry with Cooks and Cobb while not being able to lean on Hopkins in clutch situations. Will Fuller has struggled to stay healthy in recent years and the same can be said for Cooks. That will need to change for this offence to realize its potential in 2020. Watson’s passing yard prop total is currently set at 4,050.5. Considering he’s topped 4,000 passing yards only once in his first three seasons in the league, that number would indicate an expected progression in Watson’s output despite that he lost Hopkins. Houston’s season win total has been set at 7.5 – one fewer than both Indianapolis and Tennessee. Coming off a 10-win season, the Texans will be hard pressed to get back to that mark again in 2020.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

AFC South Champion Odds: +2200

Team Win Total: 5 Wins  

There are good teams, there are bad teams, and then there are the Jacksonville Jaguars. It wasn't long ago that Jacksonville led the New England Patriots in the fourth quarter of the 2017 AFC Championship game only to ultimately fall short. Their defence was one of the best in the league and Leonard Fournette​ had just rushed for over 1,000 yards in his rookie season. Three years later, almost that entire roster has been purged. Fournette, Jalen Ramsey, Calaias Campbell and A.J. Bouye will all suit up elsewhere this season. The Jaguars have salvaged as many draft picks as possible while clearing a ton of cap space over the past few months. Jacksonville is currently -769 to placed fourth in the AFC South – making them the clear frontrunner to finish below the Colts, Titans and Texans in the division basement this season.

*All sports betting information appears as listed by Bet MGM at 11:00 AM ET on Wednesday September 9th, 2020.