Two of the game’s brightest young stars – Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Yordan Alvarez – will clash this weekend in Toronto as the Blue Jays host the Houston Astros.

After an up-and-down start to his major league career, Guerrero has looked like the hitter we all expected him to be for some time. Alvarez, on the other hand, has been tearing it up since the day he came up. So who has the edge in AL Rookie of the Year race?

If it was strictly about the offensive numbers, the award would go to Alvarez and it wouldn’t be all that close. Alvarez is hitting .324 with 21 home runs, 62 RBIs, an on-base percentage of .421 and an OPS of 1.110 – higher than Mike Trout’s 1.087. If he had enough games under his belt, Alvarez would be the league leader.

On the flip side, Guerrero is hitting a solid .282 with 15 home runs, 59 RBI, a .353 OBP and an .821 OPS. Compared to Alvarez, Vladdy’s counting stats aren’t near as impressive – he has six fewer home runs and three fewer runs driven in 39 more games. Guerrero’s average, on-base and OPS don’t even come close. Alvarez is also ahead of Guerrero in wins above replacement (3.0 to 2.2) according to Baseball Reference. Plus, for what it’s worth, Alvarez is producing in the middle of the order for a first-place team.

 

Guerrero vs. Alvarez

 
Player Games HR RBI AVG OPS
Yordan Alvarez 62 15 59 .282 .821
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 101 21 62 .324 1.110
 

But Guerrero has one major advantage on Alvarez – he plays a positon.

While Guerrero’s defence at third base has been shaky at times (15 errors in 79 games), history says he has an inherent advantage over someone who primarily plays the role of designated hitter like Alvarez. While the Cuban star has played nine games in the outfield, his other 53 have been as DH.

Only two designated hitters have ever won the American League Rookie of the Year Award – Hall of Famer Eddie Murray in 1977 and Bob Hamelin for the Kansas City Royals in 1984. Shohei Ohtani would qualify if not for his 10 starts on the mound last season. And in the National League? Well, obviously none.

This is true of other awards, too. Take last year’s AL MVP race for example.

Mookie Betts won the award with 32 homers, 80 RBI and an OPS of 1.078. J.D. Martinez – who spent most of the year as a DH – hit 43 longballs and drove in a league-best 130 runs, but the award went to Betts while Martinez finished fourth. Longtime Red Sox DH David Ortiz never won an MVP despite his 541 home runs and a career OPS of .931. He was sixth or better five times, but never finished atop the race despite playing for a Red Sox team that was seemingly always in contention.

As TSN Baseball Insider Steve Phillips writes in his weekly column, if a DH is going to be rewarded with a major award, his numbers need to be much better than the position players in contention. So far, Alvarez’s are, but Guerrero has been closing the gap.

The Blue Jays’ star is hitting .331 with 18 extra-base hits in 40 games since the All-Star break. He’s been even better in August, slashing .353/.409/.600. If Vlad Jr. keeps that pace up in the remaining month of the season, he might give voters a real dilemma.

Baltimore Orioles starter John Means and Detroit Tigers righty Spencer Turnbull have also been impressive, but have little chance – if any – to sneak into serious contention. Brandon Lowe of the Tampa Bay Rays (.276/.339/.523, 16 HR, 49 RBI) is probably Guerrero’s biggest threat after Alvarez.

Even if Guerrero doesn’t win the award, he is sure to go down as having one of the best offensive rookie seasons in Blue Jays history. Here are a few others:

 

Alfredo Griffin – 1979

AVG: .287   HR: 2   RBI: 31   OPS: .697

Griffin was the first Blue Jay to take home the Rookie of the Year Award and was the only winner until Eric Hinske in 2002. Griffin also stole 21 bases and recorded a heavy 689 plate appearances.

 

Jesse Barfield – 1982

AVG: .246   HR: 18   RBI: 58   OPS: .749

No longer playing like an expansion team, the Jays took a big step forward in 1982 and Barfield helped lead the franchise into one of their most successful eras. He also led the team with 14 outfield assists that season.

 

Fred McGriff – 1987

AVG: .247   HR: 20   RBI: 43   OPS: .881

Despite an impressive rookie season, McGriff did not crack the top six in voting. Mark McGwire took home 100 per cent of the first-place vote after blasting 49 home runs. 

 

John Olerud – 1990

AVG: .265   HR: 14   RBI: 48   OPS; .794

Olerud finished fourth in rookie voting and laid the groundwork for an impressive big-league career that would go on to last 17 seasons. He would hit .300 or better in four seasons, including an absurd .363 for the Blue Jays in 1993.

 

Shawn Green – 1995

AVG: .288   HR: 15   RBI: 54   OPS: .835

Green played just 17 games in his first two seasons with the Jays but broke out in year three, finishing fifth in AL ROY voting. He would go on to play three more seasons in Toronto before joining the Los Angeles Dodgers.

 

Jose Cruz – 1997

AVG: .248   HR: 26   RBI: 68   OPS: .814

While off to a red-hot start with the Seattle Mariners, Cruz was dealt to the Blue Jays in a deal involving Mike Timlin. Cruz clubbed 26 homers but was a distant second to Red Sox shortstop Nomar Garciaparra in rookie of the year voting.

 

Eric Hinske – 2002

AVG: .279   HR: 24   RBI: 84   OPS: .845

Hinske joined Griffin as the team’s only Rookie of the Year Award winners and looked to be building a solid foundation for a career but never quite matched his production from his debut season and was dealt to the Boston Red Sox in 2006.