Panthers edge Flames atop NHL Power Rankings

By Sportlogiq Staff (@Sportlogiq)

The jockeying for the top spot in our Power Rankings continues as we have a new No. 1 for a fifth consecutive week.

The Florida Panthers are back on top after posting a 3-0-1 week. Florida lost three straight to end the month of February but has since gone 5-0-1, good enough to regain top spot in our rankings. The Panthers rank third overall in points percentage but have the best goal and expected goal differential in the league. Don’t be surprised to see Florida make a serious push for the best record in the NHL as we approach the final six weeks of the season.

The Calgary Flames stay put in second place in our rankings. Even if you’re not a Flames fan, there’s a good chance you saw them play last week by sheer virtue of how often they played.

Calgary just wrapped up a stretch of five games in seven nights and came out of it in fine shape, winning three of those games. Their reward? A whole two days off before playing three games in four nights. Calgary’s schedule over the next couple of weeks isn’t the most difficult, with games against the Devils, Sabres, Canucks, Sharks, Coyotes, and Oilers. Despite ranking seventh in points percentage, our model believes the Flames will continue moving up the standings into a top-three spot in the NHL.

Despite losses to Arizona and Buffalo, the Toronto Maple Leafs move up two spots from eighth to sixth on our list. The Leafs finished last week with a 2-1-1 record. Toronto’s spot on our list is consistent with their rank in points percentage, tied for seventh with Calgary.

The Leafs rank second in the NHL in expected goal differential however, this does not take into account how well a team finishes on its chances – no problem for the Leafs – or goaltending, a big problem for the Leafs. Since Jan. 1, Toronto has the worst goaltending in the NHL. Toronto’s goals saved above expected per 60 minutes sits at minus 0.73. No other team has been worse than minus 0.50 per 60. With the trade deadline looming, we will see if Toronto goes after a goalie to stop the bleeding. 

Goaltending issues appear to be a thing of the past for the Edmonton Oilers, who posted a 2-1-0 record last week. The Oilers had a tough schedule, facing the Flames, Capitals, and Lightning but thanks to their impressive play, move up five spots on our list from 16th to 11th.

Edmonton ranks seventh in expected goal differential, a sign that if the Oilers should be a lock for a playoff spot if the team can get just average goaltending. Edmonton is in a great position to move into the top-10 on our list with games against the Red Wings, Sabres, and Devils this week. 

The Vancouver Canucks drop four spots from 17th to 21st after splitting their week, posting a 1-1-1 record against the Canadiens, Capitals, and Lightning.

The Canucks currently sit three points back of Vegas for the final wild-card spot and three points back of Edmonton for third place in the Pacific Division. Our playoff model has Vancouver with a 38 per cent chance of making the playoffs. The Canucks next four games are at home, against the Devils, Red Wings, Flames, and Sabres. 

The Montreal Canadiens fall from 26th to 32nd on our list after also finishing last week with a 1-1-1 record.

Montreal continues to prove it is never out of a game following an impressive comeback win against the Flyers Sunday night. Montreal is 8-5-1 since Martin St. Louis took over behind the bench. Their .607 points percentage in that time ranks 16th overall. Cole Caufield, who scored in overtime Sunday night, continues to flourish since the coaching change. Caufield has 17 points in 14 games with St. Louis behind the bench, best on the Canadiens, and 25th in the NHL.

The Canadiens will spend the next two weeks on home ice with games against the Coyotes, Stars, Senators, Bruins, Panthers, and Maple Leafs.