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After missing a chance at the postseason by a single game last fall, the Blue Jays are set to play their first full season in Toronto since 2019 with the best top-to-bottom team this franchise has fielded in a long, long time.

Yes, that includes the lightning-in-a-bottle juggernaut back in 2015.

The excitement surrounding this club is palpable, and with good reason.

With the Jays’ nomadic status in the rear-view and a lockout now settled, a condensed 162 games and expanded postseason is sure to provide some summer excitement.

Once again, TSN baseball insider Steve Phillips and I are set to tackle some key questions when it comes to what needs to happen for the Jays this summer. We also take a shot at predicting the next seven-and-a-half months, all the way up to award season in November.

Check out last year’s predictions here.

How high should expectations be for this Jays team?

MITCHELL: Does sky high work for ya? Coming off a 91-win campaign that saw the club get better and better as the season went on, the Jays are a trendy World Series pick for many, and it makes sense. The rotation is more talented than the ones in 2015 and 2016, while the lineup, even sans Marcus Semien, is going to provide more than enough support on a nightly basis. The bullpen was the weak link last season, but it, too, got better as the season went along and there’s currently an interesting group of arms for manager Charlie Montoyo to sift through. It would be an extreme disappointment if this team didn’t win 90-plus games and secure a postseason spot, but it’s also a group that believes nothing less than a trip to the World Series will satisfy.

PHILLIPS: On paper, the Blue Jays are arguably the best team in the American League. They have balance and depth. They have youth and experience. I have never seen a team that loses the Cy Young Award winner and a top three MVP candidate in one off-season and the expectations go up. But that is where this team is with the additions of Matt Chapman, Kevin Gausman, Yusei Kikuchi, Raimel Tapia and Yimi Garcia. Remember, the young core of the team will be better because of age and experience. Plus, a full season of Jose Berrios, Alek Manoah and a healthy George Springer will make a big difference. The Jays finished a game out of the postseason last year while jumping from Dunedin to Buffalo to Toronto. Settling into Toronto this year will really help.

Which player’s health is most vital to the Jays’ hopes?

MITCHELL: While it’s easy to say one of the two MVP candidates in Vladimir Guerrero Jr. or Bo Bichette, the lineup did damage without George Springer for half a season, so they’d probably still score enough. That makes me point to the rotation. Losing any one of Jose Berrios, Kevin Gausman or Alek Manoah would immediately test the rotation depth and potentially shift the club’s priorities heading into the trade deadline in July.

PHILLIPS: Losing Vladimir Guerrero Jr. for any substantial time would be awful but losing Bo Bichette would be worse. The Jays have more depth and versatility to handle the loss at first base than they do at shortstop. Bichette is the face and voice of the Blue Jays. He is the glue that holds it all together.

What will GM Ross Atkins and the front office do by the trade deadline in July?

MITCHELL: The Jose Ramirez rumours will start up as soon as Cleveland fails to get their star third baseman signed to a contract extension, but every contender will be interested in an MVP-level bat who can play both the hot corner as well as second base. The best strategy might be attempting to build a dominant back end of the bullpen by adding one or two of the top relievers on the market to pair with Jordan Romano. It’s very likely that the Jays’ needs today are not what they are three months from now.

PHILLIPS: The one concern about the lineup is that it is right-hand dominant. They may have to consider adding a switch-hitter or lefty bat at DH or second base at the deadline. Much of this will depend on the bounce back of Cavan Biggio. Can he contribute again? I would also like to see another left-hander in the bullpen.

What needs to happen for the Jays to make the postseason?

MITCHELL: First and foremost, stay healthy. There’s too much talent up and down this roster for things to go sideways when everyone is on the field. With a strong rotation helping to mitigate any unforeseen bullpen volatility, they can bash their way to the postseason, even in the toughest division in baseball. It’s honestly hard to envision a way this team doesn’t make the playoffs without something utterly strange happening. But that strangeness did happen in 2021 when they won 91 games and amazingly still didn’t qualify, so as they say, that’s why the play the games.

PHILLIPS: Avoiding any catastrophic injuries is critical. The Jays have depth to manage short-term aches and pains. They will also have to play well within the AL East. There are no days off in this division. Playing each team in the division 19 times, can be very helpful or extremely detrimental. A win or loss in the division has double impact. Losing a game against the Kansas City Royal is a tough loss but losing a game to the Yankees is a loss for the Jays and a win for New York. The AL East is so tough that the clubs there could beat up on each other opening the door for teams in other divisions to enter the wild-card race.

What will the Jays’ record be — the over/under is set at 92.5 wins heading into the season — and will it be enough to make the expanded 12-team postseason?

MITCHELL: Last year’s Pythagorean win/loss record sat at 99-63, showing they were even better than the 91 wins they finished with. It’s the second-highest number on the board behind the Los Angeles Dodgers, but you’ve gotta take the over with this team. I’ll say 95-67, which means the AL East is coming down to the final weekend of the season once again.

PHILLIPS: Playing in Toronto this year and not bouncing around will have a major benefit to the Jays. I definitely take the over. They will throw more quality innings than any other club. I am looking for 97 wins.

What’s your favourite World Series futures bet?

MITCHELL: The AL Beast is going to be a wild ride this year, but the Tampa Bay Rays are still loaded with both big-league talent and prospects that could either contribute or help the the front office really go all in at the trade deadline. The Rays at 16/1 — behind seven other teams — to win a ring is good value. Since I have the St. Louis Cardinals and Seattle Mariners also qualifying — more on that below — they’re good longshot bets at around 30/1.

PHILLIPS: If I am going to make a catch-lightning-in-a-bottle bet for a surprise World Series Champion I am looking for a team I think will make the playoffs with the longest odds to win it. Once a club gets into the postseason funny things can happen. I like the Philadelphia Phillies at 30/1. I am picking them to make the playoffs. With a starting rotation of Zack Wheeler Aaron Nola, Zach Eflin, Kyle Gibson and Ranger Suarez they can match up well in a short series.

What’s your favourite MVP prop bet in either league?

MITCHELL: If you believe in Steve Cohen’s revamped New York Mets, Francisco Lindor at 18/1 and Pete Alonso at 35/1 jump out, while Bo Bichette 20/1 is one Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (4/1) oblique strain away from perhaps being the AL MVP favourite. For me, there’s not enough value on MVP favourites Shohei Ohtani (+340) or Juan Soto (+360) to go that route.

PHILLIPS: When writers vote for the MVP, they seem very inclined to consider the stat wins above replacement. It is a stat that includes offensive and defensive value. So, I tend look for players with great tools that impact the game in many ways when considering a potential MVP. The best bets for MVP are Twins outfielder Byron Buxton who has the potential to be a 40/40 player and win a Gold Glove at a 3000 or Chicago White Sox outfielder, Luis Robert, who could do much of the same at 40/1.

What’s your favourite Jays player prop bet?

MITCHELL: I’d be all over Bo Bichette props this year. He’s primed for a monster season, and he wants to play all 162 games. If Charlie Montoyo continues to hit him cleanup, find an RBI prop — it was 95.5 in some spots — and hammer the over. I also really like Teoscar Hernandez under 32.5 homers, George Springer over 31.5 homers, and starters Alek Manoah and Kevin Gausman over their win totals, which are both hovering around 11.

PHILLIPS: Bo Bichette was second in runs scored (121) in 2021 to Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (123). Yet Guerrero is at 8/1 while Bichette is at 15/1 in leading MLB in runs scored this year. The Jays shortstop is a good bet. I also like Jordan Romano at +2000 to lead the league in saves. The Jays are the best team in the AL, and he will get as many chances as anyone to save games.

Postseason predictions

AMERICAN LEAGUE

AL EAST: Toronto Blue Jays (Mitchell); Toronto Blue Jays (Phillips)

AL CENTRAL: Chicago White Sox (Mitchell); Chicago White Sox (Phillips)

AL WEST: Houston Astros (Mitchell); Houston Astros  (Phillips)

FIRST WILD CARD: Tampa Bay Rays (Mitchell); New York Yankees (Phillips)

SECOND WILD CARD: Seattle Mariners (Mitchell); Tampa Bay Rays (Phillips)

THIRD WILD CARD: New York Yankees (Mitchell); Seattle Mariners (Phillips)

 

NATIONAL LEAGUE

NL EAST: Atlanta Braves (Mitchell); Atlanta Braves (Phillips);

NL CENTRAL: St. Louis Cardinals (Mitchell); Milwaukee Brewers (Phillips)

NL WEST: Los Angeles Dodgers (Mitchell); Los Angeles Dodgers (Phillips); 

FIRST WILD CARD: Milwaukee Brewers (Mitchell); San Diego Padres (Phillips)

SECOND WILD CARD: New York Mets (Mitchell); Philadelphia Phillies (Phillips)

THIRD WILD CARD: San Diego Padres (Mitchell); St Louis Cardinals (Phillips)

World Series pick

MITCHELL: I think this season is going to be highly competitive, with a good five to seven teams having a shot at things coming together for them. The Dodgers are loaded. So are the Jays and White Sox. But it’s the Tampa Bay Rays, as a wild-card team, outlasting the New York Mets in a seven-game World Series this fall.

PHILLIPS: The World Series will be a battle of young superstars. It will be the Alex Anthopoulos World Series. Anthopoulos is the general manager of the defending World Series Champion Atlanta Braves who will look to become the first repeat champion since the 1999-2000 New York Yankees. His Atlanta Braves will take on his former team the Toronto Blue Jays. I see a seven-game battle with the Jays' young stars producing in the big moments. Jays beat the Braves in seven games.

Award predictions

American League MVP

MITCHELL: Without the freak-like Shohei Ohtani around, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. would’ve won it last year. He makes up for it this year with an obscene .330 batting average and all the counting stats you could possibly want.

PHILLIPS: If Ohtani stays healthy it will be difficult for anyone else to supplant him in the MVP race because of his unique set of skills. But I am with Scott, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. wins the MVP this season, taking his game to another level and chasing a Triple Crown all season long.

National League MVP

MITCHELL: Mookie Betts stays healthy in his age-29 campaign and posts a monster 8.0 WAR season. Just pick a Dodger, really. Trea Turner is going to have a huge year, too.

PHILLIPS: Freddie Freeman is going to enjoy his new digs in Los Angeles. It is home for him, and he will be immediately comfortable with so many weapons around him in the lineup. He wins his second NL MVP in the last three seasons.

American League Cy Young

MITCHELL: After losing out to teammate Justin Verlander in 2019 and Robbie Ray last year, Gerrit Cole finally gets over the hump and wins his first Cy. The Yankees need him to be great again this year.

PHILLIPS: The depth of impact starting pitching isn't nearly as good in the AL as it is in the NL. I think Gerrit Cole is the best going into the season in the AL and therefore will win the award as long as he stays healthy.

National League Cy Young

MITCHELL: I’ll go outside the box here. Julio Urias finally put it all together last season after dealing with injuries early in his career. He jumps to another level this summer and becomes the best lefty in baseball.

PHILLIPS: The torch is finally completely passed from Dodgers starter Clayton Kershaw to teammate Walker Buehler this season. The young right-hander is officially the ace of the staff and wins his first Cy Young Award.

American League Rookie of the Year

MITCHELL: Julio Rodriguez is going to be a star from the get-go, and he’s going to have all the numbers he needs to edge out current favourites Bobby Witt Jr. and Spencer Torkelson. J-Rod was a great bet a month ago for this award when no one thought he was breaking camp with the M’s.

PHILLIPS: Bobby Witt Jr is going to show why he was taken second overall by the Royals in the 2019 draft. He was one stolen base away from a 30 homer/30 stolen base season in the minor leagues in 2021. He will be a 25 homer/25 stolen base player this year.

National League Rookie of the Year

MITCHELL: I think Seiya Suzuki will avoid any sort of adjustment period, and he’ll love hitting inside Wrigley Field. I also thought the same last year when I picked Ha-Seong Kim to win this award. I can’t be wrong twice.

PHILLIPS: The Phillies are trying to improve their overall team defence. Top prospect infielder Bryson Stott is going to be part of the solution for that, and he will show he can really hit as well.

AL Manager of the Year

MITCHELL: One year after making a surprising run at a wild-card berth, Scott Servais gets his Seattle Mariners to the dance with a 91-win season.

PHILLIPS: Dusty Baker will be recognized for once again taking the Astros to the postseason after another big loss on the roster. He lost George Springer in 2021 and now Carlos Correa in 2022, yet Houston keeps on winning.

NL Manager of the Year

MITCHELL: Oliver Marmol’s St. Louis Cardinals are sneaky deep as always and the division is mostly terrible other than the Brew Crew. The 35-year-old wins it in his first season as a manager.

PHILLIPS: The Phillies are going to surprise some people this season and manager Joe Girardi will do a great job managing his improved bullpen and deep rotation.