Powell’s play could prompt change to Raptors’ starting lineup

Josh Lewenberg

TSN Raptors Reporter

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TORONTO – With Norman Powell playing the best basketball of his career and Fred VanVleet nearing a return from his minor knee injury, Nick Nurse has a decision to make.

Powell’s been filling in as a starter for most of this past month – first for the injured Kyle Lowry and now in place of VanVleet. To say that he’s done so admirably would be an understatement.

The fifth-year guard has scored in double figures in 16 of 19 games since Lowry went down in New Orleans early last month. Over that stretch he’s averaged 17.2 points on 52 per cent shooting and 43 per cent from three-point range.

Prior to last week he had never eclipsed 20 points in back-to-back games. After scoring 26 in Monday’s win over Cleveland, he’s now done it in three straight.

Following the contest, Nurse indicated he might have to rethink who starts once VanVleet is back. On Tuesday, the Raptors head coach elaborated on his thought process. What would go into the decision if he were to make a change?

“A couple things,” Nurse said. “Just fit sometimes, like what guys fit with the first group or the second group a little bit better. That’s one thing. Or just some guys that have maybe risen their level of play that deserve more minutes – you get ’em into a starters rotation and that’s the easiest way to get them more minutes. And the other thing is, as you guys remember from a year ago, I like to use some flexibility in the starting lineup throughout the course of the year because I see in the playoffs that you may have to do that sometimes. You may have to switch your starting lineup and it seems a strange time to do it for the first time all year, or to be so rigid all year long and then ask your team all of sudden to be open minded and flexible. So that would be another reason to change it around a little bit.”

But wait, it might not be as simple as saying: Powell in, VanVleet out. Nurse made sure to point out that out. Even if a change is coming it doesn’t necessarily mean VanVleet is headed back to the bench.

“I don’t know that it would be Fred,” he said.

Nurse has options. He has seven experienced starters, each of whom he feels comfortable opening games with.

The team’s all-stars, Pascal Siakam and Kyle Lowry, are locks. Although Lowry’s been rusty since returning from his fractured thumb and you could argue it makes sense to bring him off the bench until he’s all the way back, it’s highly unlikely they’d go down that route.

The Raptors are heavily invested in Lowry, who is making more than $63 million over the next two years, and bringing him off the bench for the first time since 2012-13 may not go over well with the 14-year vet. Those would be factors, to be sure, but more than anything else, Lowry is their second-best – and, on some nights, still their most important – player.

So that leaves three spots for five players: VanVleet, OG Anunoby, Marc Gasol, Serge Ibaka and Powell.

We know Nurse isn’t opposed to throwing out unconventional looks and playing position-less basketball, meaning there are a variety of different combinations he could start games with. Maybe that means platooning VanVleet and Powell alongside Lowry in the backcourt, or Gasol and Ibaka at centre – as they did for a few weeks after acquiring Gasol last winter. They could go small with Powell at the three and Lowry and VanVleet in the backcourt, or they could go big with Siakam at the three next to Gasol and Ibaka.

If and when they make a change, don’t expect it to be permanent. We also know Nurse is open to keeping his lineups fluid.

“If we do make a change it’s not like those things are etched in stone either,” Nurse said. “It’s kind of a moving thing. So it could be one way one night and the next night the other, and the third night that week another way. The guys we’re talking about, there’s probably seven of them that could all end up starting two of the three. So it’s not like banishment to the bench for the rest of the year, or whatever. And you’ve gotta explain that. If you do those things it’s more for an eye for later. It’s not a short-term thing, it’s so that we’re more flexible later.”

The Raptors used 22 different starting lineups last season. Part of that was out of necessity – a result of injuries and the Gasol trade – but it was also by design. It’s something Nurse spoke about immediately after his promotion from assistant to head coach.

In 2017-18, under Dwane Casey, the Raptors were more rigid with the rotation and it worked really well during the regular season. Their two units – the starters and their prized bench mob – built great chemistry together and were among the the league’s best five-man lineup combinations.

However, when the Cleveland Cavaliers went small on them in the second round of the playoffs – using Kevin Love at centre and LeBron James at the four – they weren’t prepared to improvise or adjust on the fly.

“From my past experiences it felt like we were always locked into a starting lineup and then all of sudden we were facing a team [in the playoffs] and we had bad matchups to start the game, and then it was almost impossible to have those conversations that we’re switching,” Nurse recalled. “Like, [it would be] devastating [at] that time of the year – you start all 82 [games] and then all of sudden here come the playoffs and you’re not [starting]. So I just think I’m trying to lessen the devastation factor.”

Getting guys like Ibaka, or Jonas Valanciunas early in the campaign – players that had started for all or most of their career – to buy into new roles was a driving force behind Toronto’s championship season. That’s been a strength of Nurse’s early in his career as an NBA head coach. Players respect his straightforward style of communication.

Nobody’s role has fluctuated as much as Powell’s during his five seasons with the Raptors – bouncing back and forth between the starting lineup and the bench, and even falling out of the rotation entirely.

His game should translate as a reserve – you could argue that his skill set is better suited for that role, coming into the game with energy and instant offence as the sixth man – but he’s had far more success as a starter. The difference, now, is that Powell is firmly entrenched in Nurse’s rotation and his minutes should be fairly similar, whether he starts or comes off the bench once VanVleet returns.

VanVleet has been able to participate in a couple recent practices. He stuck around after Tuesday’s session to get some extra work in and take part in one-on-one drills with the young players. He’s still considered day-to-day and isn’t expected to play in Detroit on Wednesday, though he shouldn’t be out much longer.

Like VanVleet or Ibaka – or just about any player in the NBA – Powell’s preference is to start, but he’s shown he will accept his role, regardless of what it looks like.

“I’ve said it before, whatever helps the team,” Powell said on Monday. “I’m going out there doing whatever I can do [to] help the team. Whatever decision they make, however they feel, I’m gonna go out there and put my best foot forward. Whether I’m coming off the bench or starting, it doesn’t matter to me as long as we’re winning. I’ve always been like that and that’s not gonna change.”

Having seven starters for five spots isn’t a bad problem. Neither is having 12 viable options for a rotation that will consist of nine or 10 players on most nights.

In addition to the aforementioned seven, the Raptors recently got Patrick McCaw back from injury. With guys out of the lineup, Terence Davis, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson and Chris Boucher each stepped up and proved themselves deserving of playing time, though they’ve all seen their minutes go back down with the team getting healthier. Matt Thomas – who has been out with a fractured finger – is on the mend and should be back soon.

“We can’t start everybody and we can’t play everybody,” said Nurse. “But we’d rather have it that way than the other way, that’s for sure.”