The UFC wraps up five straight weeks of hosting events at their UFC Apex production facility in Las Vegas with their strongest main event over that duration as Dustin Poirier faces Dan Hooker in a bout that carries major implications in what many consider to be the UFC’s most talented division.

Unfamiliar territory for Hooker

Dustin Poirier (-225) vs. Dan Hooker (+205)

For only the second time in his UFC tenure, Hooker will close as an underdog when he faces the former interim lightweight champion Poirier and he is likely to be a bigger underdog than he has been in any of his previous UFC outings.

Why?:

Prior to his loss to Khabib Nurmagomedov in a lightweight title unification bout, Poirier had gone nearly three years without a loss and is 9-2 (with one no contest) since moving to the division on a permanent basis.

Poirier has faced a current or former champion in each of his last six bouts, with one of the toughest schedules of any fighter over the past three years.

Meanwhile, Hooker has won seven of his last eight, all of which have taken place when he, like Poirier, moved up to the lightweight division after having struggles cutting weight to the 146-pound featherweight cutoff.

While Hooker has had a tough schedule, it pales in comparison to Poirier’s and for that reason, many feel that Poirier has beaten a level of competition that is higher than Hooker, which is why the betting support has gone in Poirier’s direction.

The Most Significant Line Movement

Mike Perry (-310) vs. Mickey Gall (+255)

Perry opened as just a -155 favourite and was immediately bet up into the -275 range about fifteen minutes after the line was released.

Why?:

While Perry has lost three of his last four bouts, the thinking is that Perry is far more established than his opponent.

Gall entered the UFC at 1-0 with the goal of facing CM Punk. Gall did so and dispatched the former professional wrestler in just over two minutes.

From there, Gall has proven to be the real deal, going 3-2.

Despite three wins over capable opponents, none of those who Gall have defeated are still on the UFC roster, while Perry has wins over the likes of Alex Oliveira and Paul Felder in recent years, which leads the public to believe that Perry is further ahead in his development.

Short notice underdogs look to make their mark

Sean Woodson (-475) vs. Julian Erosa (+380)

Brendan Allen (-310) vs. Kyle Daukaus (+255)

Two sneaky good matchups on the card involve short notice opponents Julian Erosa and Kyle Daukaus.

Erosa is getting his third opportunity in the UFC after a stint on The Ultimate Fighter led to his first opportunity, a win on the Dana White Contender Series earning him a second and now a short notice opportunity leading to his third. Erosa has a 1-4 UFC record, but is a talented fighter with many tools.

Daukaus is an uber-talented prospect with an undefeated 9-0 record, eight of which have come inside the distance.

Why?:

The bout between Woodson and Erosa is a fun one. Both have very unorthodox striking skills and while Woodson is a big favourite in this spot, this should be an entertaining stylistic matchup. This bout is likely closer than the line indicates if this fight stays on the feet.

While Daukaus has had a good amount of success on the regional scene, Allen, a former LFA middleweight champion, has not lost in two and a half years and has made his mark on the UFC with two quality wins against Kevin Holland and Tom Breese.

I believe that Daukaus will pose a threat to Allen, but the perception is that Allen is the better prospect and has beaten a higher calibre of opponent.

Odds and Ends:

  • Poirier only has one career loss as a -200 or higher favourite
  • This is only the second time that Hooker and Gall have been underdogs in their UFC careers. Both won their only bouts where they closed as underdogs.
  • Perry is 3-3 as a favourite in the UFC
  • This is the fourth straight UFC bout where Erosa has been an underdog. He is 0-3 in those bouts.
  • Last August, Khama Worthy won his UFC debut as a +775 (average odds) underdog against Devonte Smith in one of the top-5 biggest upsets in UFC history
  • This is the first time that Jordan Griffin has been an underdog since his UFC debut in December of 2018.

Odds courtesy: 5 Dimes