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DUNEDIN, Fla. — The heart of the Toronto Blue Jays is still the cadre of homegrown star position players and an offence that needs to score runs to keep up in the American League East.

But everyone knows pitching, pitching and more pitching is what’s needed to win a World Series, and the rotation the Jays are set to run out to the mound this season is inarguably one of the best in baseball.

“It’s a talented group of pitchers and I think we all feel pretty confident going into the season with this group of guys,” prized $110-million man Kevin Gausman said Monday. “Especially in the AL East. You’re only as good as your starting pitching.”

A full 162 games will tell that story, one that often involves health.

In José Berríos and Gausman, the Jays possess two right-handers with sparkling track records of health and the rare ability (these days) to pitch deep into games each and every time out.

Both could approach 200 innings this season.
Even though he only has 20 big-league starts on his resume, Alek Manoah could join them after throwing 111.2 sparkling frames as a rookie to finish with a 3.22 ERA.

If Manoah takes another step in his sophomore year, it could be a scary trio of right-handers, a threesome that’s also locked up for a long, long time thanks to the Berríos contract extension way back in November.

If those three perform as their recent track records suggest they will, the rotation keys could come down to a Hyun Jin Ryu bounceback and Yusei Kikuchi finding the upside that the Jays thought enough of to hand him $36 million over the next three years.

The two lefties balance out what looks like a diverse rotation in terms of styles, repertoires and even age.

One year ago, Ryu and a riddled-with-questions Robbie Ray were the only pitchers with rotation spots locked down heading into spring training (proof here).

It’s completely different now.

On Monday, as the Jays went through their first full team workout with just 26 days to go until opening day, manager Charlie Montoyo acknowledged one through five is already set.

In the first of three State of the Position pieces that will tee up the ins and outs of the Jays roster as spring training begins, here’s a closer look at all things rotation.

PROJECTED ROTATION
SP1—RHP José Berríos
SP2—RHP Kevin Gausman
SP3—RHP Alek Manoah
SP4—LHP Hyun Jin Ryu
SP5—LHP Yusei Kikuchi
 
COMPETING FOR ROSTER SPOTS
RHP Ross Stripling
RHP Nate Pearson
RHP Thomas Hatch
LHP Anthony Kay
LHP Zach Logue
RHP Bowden Francis
 
JOB BATTLE TO WATCH
—Stripling vs. Pearson—

Until the Kikuchi signing, this was the battle for the fifth starter role, but it doesn’t necessarily mean both Stripling and Pearson will be assigned to the bullpen.
With the full 162 games now condensed as well as a short spring training runway to get pitchers ready, there’s a chance the Jays could decide to use six starters to begin this season.

Stripling has performed well in the swingman role previously in his career and the veteran knows how to juggle jumping back and forth, but Pearson has a chance to really enter his name into the mix if he pitches well this spring.

Coming off sports hernia surgery, it’s a very important three weeks for Pearson, who’s going to pitch out of the Jays bullpen at some point this season thanks to an innings cap.

He’s still completely viewed as a starter long-term by the organization, but everyone also knows the type of impact the massive righty can have in short spurts out of the ‘pen.

It’s a turning point year career-wise for the 2017 first rounder.
 
BIGGEST STRENGTH
—Quality innings atop rotation—

As I mentioned above, staying healthy is the absolute key for a pitching staff and while you can never predict injuries, GM Ross Atkins and his front office has long valued the ability to haul innings.

There’s no doubt Berríos and Gausman can do that, and some.

Last year, only seven pitchers in baseball threw more than 190 innings, with those two checking at a matching 192 frames.
If they can match that, the rotation will be in very good shape.
 
BIGGEST WEAKNESS
—Emergency depth—

This is really nitpicking, especially after the Kikuchi signing, because there isn’t a team in baseball that feels it has enough starting pitching depth to get through 162 games.

And if you do, you’re probably going to be wrong.

There’s a solid group now with Stripling as depth and Pearson’s rotation-changing upside, but after that it’s Thomas Hatch, Anthony Kay, Zach Logue and Bowden Francis.

While Hatch showed flashes in 2020, Kay struggled mightily at Triple-A last season and Logue and Francis have yet to make a big-league start.

One injury and the Jays could be in the market for a back-end starter come July, but every team in baseball could say that.
 
BREAKOUT CANDIDATE
—RHP Alek Manoah—

You could absolutely write Kikuchi in here, as the Jays see hidden upside in his four-pitch mix that features a mid-90s fastball, a cutter, a pretty good changeup and, at times, a swing-and-miss slider.

There’s some real breakout juice here, especially after everyone just watched pitching coach Pete Walker resurrect Robbie Ray and Steven Matz.

But Manoah is a sleeping giant at this point, a pitcher who’s already had success and has so much more ceiling left.

He’s already got two different fastballs that get the job done against big-league bats and his slider is a putaway pitch when it’s on.

If the changeup comes around, the 24-year-old could be this team’s ace. And soon.
 
BOUNCEBACK CANDIDATE
—LHP Hyun Jin Ryu—

Talk to anyone around the Jays and the expectation is a much better 2022 for Ryu.

A second-half ERA of 5.50 when the spotlight was on as the Jays returned to Toronto soured the fan base a bit on the big lefty, but there’s belief physical issues played a role in his down age-34 campaign.

With two years at $20 million per season remaining on his contract, Ryu doesn’t need to be an ace anymore — the expectations should be adjusted as well — but his 4.37 ERA last season was by far the worst of his career and his pinpoint command eluded him often.

If health issues truly undermined his finesse repertoire last year, Ryu could be in for a sub-4.00 ERA bounceback.

Just don’t expect the sub-3.00 ERAs he posted in 2018-20.
 
PROSPECT TO WATCH THIS SPRING
—LHP Zach Logue and RHP Bowden Francis—

Logue and Francis nuzzled up to each other at No. 22 and No. 23, respectively, on my top 50 Jays prospects list back in January.

They’re seen as potential back-end starter types, but both took intriguing jumps last year that helped get them added to the 40-man roster in November.

It’s impossible to order the depth starters at Triple-A Buffalo with any sort of certainty, leaving it likely that the pitcher throwing the best out of Hatch, Logue, Francis and Kay — that’s my order as of today — would be the starter getting the call.

Logue and Francis will have an opportunity to impress the big league staff this spring.