It’s been quite the off-season for the Toronto Blue Jays, who are now the second choice to win the World Series at +950. Only the Los Angels Dodgers at +470 have shorter odds.

Toronto lost Robbie Ray,  their AL Cy Young Award winner, and Marcus Semien, who finished third in MVP voting to free agency. But after, the Blue Jays traded for Matt Chapman to go along with the other key free agents signed earlier in the off-season and became the clear favourite in the American League East. 

Toronto went from +240 to win the division before the Chapman trade to +175 as of March 28. Toronto has also seen its win total increase from 91.5 to 92.5.

Toronto’s starting rotation of Jose Berrios, Kevin Gausman, Hyun-jin Ryu, Alek Manoah and Yusei Kikuchi is the best one-through-five in the division and has the potential to rival the Dodgers as one of the best in baseball. 

Berrios is currently tied for the seventh choice to win AL Cy Young at +2500. While Manoah and Gausman are both in the top 11 sitting at +3000. Blue Jays starting pitchers will benefit from a lights-out offence that should put them in a position to pick up a lot of wins. Also, Chapman’s defence at 3rd base will help immensely. 

A healthy Nate Pearson and Jordan Romano should benefit a bullpen that had its struggles last year, especially in the first half of the season. As of now, the Blue Jays have not added much to their bullpen, which could change as the season gets going. Toronto is tied with the White Sox at +750 to have the best record in baseball, and only the Dodgers at +220 have shorter odds. 

With the playoffs expanding to a new 12-team format, the odds of the Blue Jays making the playoffs are currently -355. 

Last year, Toronto finished 22-9 down the stretch to finish with 91 wins but missed the playoffs by 1 game. They would have made the playoffs under the current format. The Blue Jays were unlucky, finishing with a +183 run differential and somehow still missing the playoffs. To put that in perspective, both Boston (+80 run differential) and New York (+42 run differential) qualified for the post-season in the same division with far less impressive stats. While the Blue Jays should make the playoffs, the -355 number is very steep, and I would rather play them to go over their win total and capture the division even though there was much more value betting those numbers earlier in the off-season. 

This Blue Jays lineup is very scary. George Springer, Bo Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Teoscar Hernandez, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Matt Chapman are lethal 1 through 6, especially if Chapman bounces back from a down year offensively in Oakland. Rounding out the projected starting lineup is Alejandro Kirk, who has potential with the bat, but will need to bounce back after a hip injury in 2021. Cavan Biggio had a forgettable 2021 season due to a variety of injuries but has looked healthy and could see a significant role in 2022. The Blue Jays offence, which ranked 3rd in all of baseball in runs scored last year, shouldn’t miss a beat in 2022.

After finishing 2nd to Shohei Ohtani in AL MVP voting last year, Guerrero Jr. is tied with Mike Trout at +500 as the 2nd choice to win the award behind Ohtani in 2022. It’s interesting to note, no other player has shorter odds than +2000 to win the award after those three. 

Guerrero Jr. has once again focused on his physical conditioning in the off-season. With the lineup around him, he has an opportunity to match or improve on his outstanding numbers from 2021. His over/under for home runs are listed at 43.5. He had 48 last season to go along with his 111 RBI and .311 batting average. 

Yes, the division is stacked as it usually is, but if the Blue Jays stay healthy, they are well equipped to win the World Series for the first time since 1993.