Columnist image

| Archive

TORONTO — Despite holding the 19th pick in the middle of the first round at the 2021 MLB Draft, the Toronto Blue Jays were still able to add a consensus top-10 talent and one of the best college arms in the class to the system Sunday night.

The only catch is he won’t be able to pitch for at least a year.

In selecting Ole Miss right-hander Gunnar Hoglund, Jays amateur scouting director Shane Farrell rolled the dice on upside and a pitcher who wouldn’t have been around at 19 if he hadn’t blown out his elbow and undergone Tommy John surgery in May.

Combine a well-commanded fastball and an above-average slider with the comforting track record of TJ success stories for draft prospects, one that comes with a 12-to-14-month timeline, and Farrell was beaming on his post-pick Zoom call, using the words “fortunate” and “opportunistic” to describe an investment that obviously carries some risk.

The injury likely cost Hoglund double digit draft spots and the slot money that comes along with it, but the Jays were elated to stop the Florida native’s slide.

“We’re really excited about how it shook out for us, knowing some of the different strength areas of the draft, especially how it relates to Gunnar,” said Farrell, who’s running his second Blue Jays draft table after being hired away from the Chicago Cubs in January of last year to replace Steve Sanders, who left for the Pittsburgh Pirates. “His trajectory along the year, he was pitching his way into being a top 10 pick and unfortunately the injury kind of derailed that a little bit and we’re extremely fortunate for him to be there.”

The most notable aspect of Hoglund’s scouting report is his ability to command his fastball and the consistency that he showed pre-injury.

“I think it’s the completeness of the package,” Farrell said. “He’s a strong, physical kid with really above-average control and command of his fastball, and an above-average slider, as well. The changeup is a pitch that was good for him in high school. Saw a little bit less of it at the collegiate level, but I’m sure that will develop a bit more as a pro. We saw a little tick up in fastball velocity this year and combining that with his upper-level ability to command the ball to both sides of the plate and throw the slider off the fastball is really what drove us to make this selection.”

With one of the better farm systems in baseball still and a core of young talent that’s now showing up at Midsummer Classics, the Jays’ future seems to be in great shape.

While Farrell maintained this pick was simply about Hoglund and the talent, the position the Jays are in as an organization does allow them to take some risks.

“We feel this is a very opportunistic pick for us as an organization,” Farrell said. “Knowing the trend that he was going on and had cemented himself as one of the better college pitchers aside from a couple of guys at Vanderbilt and we were excited to get him where we did.”

The Jays actually have a long history with Hoglund, a Tampa-area product who the Pirates selected 36th overall back in 2018.

Hoglund didn’t sign, instead skipping over to Oxford, Miss., to pitch for the Rebels.

Matt Bishoff, the Jays’ regional cross-checker based in Florida, spent a lot of time getting to know Hoglund as a high school product, a relationship that is now paying off.

“After the injury, we were in constant communication with both Gunnar and the family and were able to bring them to the player development complex (in Dunedin) and show them around and kind of give him a peek behind the curtains of the life he’ll be walking into with the Blue Jays,” Farrell said. “The path that a pitcher is about to go down coming back from such an injury is lonely at times and there are a lot of unknowns, so trying to build that comfort for him and his family for the first day he walks in through the door at the PDC was really important to us so he knew who he’d be working with and what our organization is about and our values.”

Drafting Hoglund adds another college product to the list of recent Jays’ first-rounders.

Since the Ross Atkins/Mark Shapiro regime took over ahead of the 2016 draft — with three different scouting directors making picks — they’ve now drafted a college player six times with seven first-round picks, including Nate Pearson out of junior college in 2017.

The lone exception is still 2018 when Sanders selected Texas high school infielder Jordan Groshans at 12th overall.​